Stock Picking ("Beat Boho") Contest

[Totoro]

Shorting the market is extremely dangerous

+infinity on that. As they say, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Only way to go short in my view:

• Something is overvalued
• There is a definite time at which point that truth comes out

The reality is that being short means time is not your friend.


All the successful housing bust shorters took heed of the last one: they knew when the balloon payments starting come due and defaults would skyrocket, and made sure they could hold their position beyond that point. Still one guy nearly had to fold because of outside investor pressures, and it took nearly a year longer than most expected before the world caught up.

 

[nun]

Get an accumulating ETF, like IWDA or CSPX.

I bought VTSAX before I knew that dividends weren't automatically handled. As the FAQ suggested I'll email the site admin whenever a dividend is given and ask for my balance to be adjusted.

 

[splitwdw]

Easysurfer, I just got done reading your pm and you are right. I thought I was supposed to create my portfolio under "my portfolio" not the contest portfolio. I thought the contest portfolio was Boho's and that's why I couldn't see any trades! I'm an idiot and maybe this should get me banned from the contest. LOL
I'll take a look at my trades and see what I want to do. Damn, I was up 397.4 in my stupid account! This is what I get for always being in a hurry and not reading/looking around. Crap, now I'm up 428.32! Hang my head in shame!

 

[LiveBelowMeans]

I'll play. FreddyLBM

 

[jordan]

I signed up - going to start trading shortly.

A couple questions.

1) Dividends aren't included in this contest? So basically just whoever can make the most capital gains wins?

2) How come no TSX? As a canadian - i find this very unfair

 

[Fermion]

And Fermion plummets to dead last. Such is the life of the bio trader.

 

[easysurfer]

Easysurfer, I just got done reading your pm and you are right. I thought I was supposed to create my portfolio under "my portfolio" not the contest portfolio. I thought the contest portfolio was Boho's and that's why I couldn't see any trades! I'm an idiot and maybe this should get me banned from the contest. LOL
I'll take a look at my trades and see what I want to do. Damn, I was up 397.4 in my stupid account! This is what I get for always being in a hurry and not reading/looking around. Crap, now I'm up 428.32! Hang my head in shame!

Yay! Glad to see you are now in the scrum with the rest of us .

 

[NW-Bound]

And Fermion plummets to dead last. Such is the life of the bio trader.

Heh heh heh... I was about to say.

My real portfolio has its stocks down -0.25% vs. the S&P of -0.14%. Of course my biotech holdings are down too, but I have given up only a small part of yesterday's gain overall.

 

[RetiredGypsy]

In the top five now, and I cannot emphasize enough how randomly I just picked some stocks. This is a fun ride!

 

[ERD50]

And Fermion plummets to dead last. Such is the life of the bio trader.

Tomorrow's another day! -ERD50

 

[nun]

And Fermion plummets to dead last. Such is the life of the bio trader.

I've done nothing and I'm middle of the pack.....Such is the life of the passive indexer.

 

[Coolius]

I see Moorebonds has joined the scrum. Welcome!

Now, if you can persuade Lord Mulligan to grace us with his presence, we could see how an Illiquid Preferred portfolio stacks up against the indexes, MFs, ETFs, and sector ports in this contest!

Disclosure: I tried, and he said no. Hope you have better luck!

 

[Boho]

I had .15 in cash after I chose my first investments and I hadn't touched them and now I notice I have over $900 in cash. I wonder how long that was sitting there. I just bought more foreign stocks and bonds (a fund) because the price seemed right. I was considering starting to trade stock but I didn't see good deals. I may start any day now.

 

[Boho]

I was about to sell half the portfolio to buy stock but

"...instead of opening at 9:30am, we open at 9:50am because our quote feed starts coming in at 9:45am to 9:50am...This delay does not apply to our real-time stock quotes"

and

"Why are some orders delayed by 15 minutes...This is to reduce cheating. If someone has access to real-time quotes, they will have an advantage on our site, where most of our quotes are delayed by 15 minutes."

I think I'll still buy this time but it will ruin some of what I do.

 

[Boho]

Nope, I canceled my trade. I won't find as many trading opportunities with this contest as in real life.

Anyway, now is a good time to buy TIF if you set your limit lower than bid and start checking prices in two hours so you can sell. Try to sell today. My order was Filled at $92.95 in real life.

 

[SecondCor521]

I won't find as many trading opportunities with this contest as in real life.

Plonk!

 

[Fermion]

My portfolio continues to drop today, which is great. The more it drops the more astounding will be the huge amount it beats all of you guys.

 

[MooreBonds]

I see Moorebonds has joined the scrum. Welcome!

Now, if you can persuade Lord Mulligan to grace us with his presence, we could see how an Illiquid Preferred portfolio stacks up against the indexes, MFs, ETFs, and sector ports in this contest!

Disclosure: I tried, and he said no. Hope you have better luck!

I'm going for broke a la Fermion....although not quite at the same amped-up level as he is. Lord Mulligan can't be bothered with such petty games like this, as he only gambles and flips in real-life. Such is for commoners and apprentices like us.

 

[easysurfer]

About $5,000 separates the top from bottom at the moment. I wouldn't call a real separation, but not that much of a free for all.

 

[harley]

I've only spent about $17K of my $100K, and am sitting near the middle of the pack. My plan is to wait for the inevitable 20% or more correction, then buy in big while prices are down. Then kick everybody's butts.

The only problem with this plan is, in the real world I've been waiting for that correction for about 7 years. But I'm sure it's coming.

 

[NW-Bound]

Just saw Shiller mentioned on the Web. He sounds a caution again, but of course the market kept on rising since he first talked about this. He agrees that market timing is difficult. I am sure he goes not go 100% cash either.

PS. Oh my, Fermion! I'd better go look at my own stash to see what my own biotechs are doing.

PPS. The worst biotech I have is down 2% or so. The best is up. And my stash is not 100% biotech either. What a relief!

 

[Boho]

I reversed myself again and decided I have such advanced skill that I could trade under these conditions so next time I will.

 

[ERD50]

I reversed myself again and decided I have such advanced skill that I could trade under these conditions so next time I will.

Thanks for the warning. All you other contestants - fasten your seat belts!

-ERD50

 

[RetiredGypsy]

Thanks for the warning. All you other contestants - fasten your seat belts!

-ERD50

https://youtu.be/-Wl_FsEc_Gk

 

[nun]

Thanks for the warning. All you other contestants - fasten your seat belts!

-ERD50