Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[Boho]

Are the top 4 still active? The top 3 are way ahead, very unlikely that Boho can catch them. Did one of them tell us their account got hosed up, but in their favor?

Spudd and comsecga are still active with trades in November. Kite_rider's last trade was 4/22/2019. I think cfahey27 is inactive and I don't know if he's even a forum member. Spudd had the error in her favor.

I place sell orders for about .25% profit. Sometimes I make more because there's a 20 minute delay before I could sell at the beginning of each trading day, and there's a quick sell rule that makes me wait 15 or 20 minutes before I place the sell order. Sometimes I wait hours longer than that before I place the sell order. So I can still get lucky from a 40% jump in a few hours but I feel that the top three may be unreachable with my current system. I'd need to try something different to go for the win.

 

[Boho]

I had a margin of safety after last month and I traded differently. I have all cash.

December 2019:

Current Rank	Previous day's rank	Account Value (USD)	Today's change in value	Overall%
1. comsecga	1	$3,791,797.62	($57.00)	279.18%
2. Spudd	2	$2,923,151.11	$944.00	192.32%
3. kite_rider	3	$2,684,246.66	($5,525.00)	168.42%
4. cfahey27	4	$1,610,016.67	$10,915.50	61.00%
5. BohoII	5	$1,438,069.09	$0.00	43.81%
6. DieWurst	6	$1,314,705.02	$8,579.22	31.47%
7. wmc1000	7	$1,300,361.55	$2,409.34	30.04%
8. lbymfreddie	8	$1,254,574.72	$2,375.40	25.46%
9. nvestysly	9	$1,243,433.44	$1,684.78	24.34%
10. easysurfer	10	$1,180,788.56	$2,085.98	18.08%
11. covert1	11	$1,160,529.74	($5,720.00)	16.05%
12. RiskyBusinessC2	12	$1,028,278.22	$5,100.00	2.83%
13. natetheb	19	$1,005,212.10	$7,049.20	0.52%
14. exnavynuke	13	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
15. jmil07	14	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
16. consvgmbl	15	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
17. dixonge	16	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
18. Jenkins Leroy	17	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
19. guestperson	18	$999,870.01	$615.00	-0.01%
20. sengsational	20	$985,848.75	$2,722.05	-1.42%
21. ransil	21	$931,710.97	$15,841.18	-6.83%
22. lawrencewendall	22	$810,668.64	($6,580.83)	-18.93%

 

[Lawrencewendall]

I stopped paying attention. It hasn't posted my monthly dividends since 2018. If my real account did that...

 

[ERD50]

I had a margin of safety after last month and I traded differently. I have all cash.

December 2019:

BohoII		$1,438,069.09

So lately you've been telling us to look at your recent record, not all the way back to the start, because you've done relatively well in the past few months.

But now you want to change your strategy? Because it was "working" (working in quotes, I think just random variation is more likely)? Why not double down?

At any rate, looks like you managed to lose quite a bit of money being in cash, must have had some loses before moving to cash? In an up market?

So if my calculations are correct, our Buy & Hold proxy (50/50 VOO/VTI - the nunnun account before the system dropped him for inactivity?) gained 2.89%, while BOHO lost 0.14%, for a relative under-performance of more than 3%.

So while Boho finally pulled ahead last month (the first time in the 24 months I've tracked), to the tune of $46,979, that lead has narrowed this month, to a mere $4,782.

What's this "margin of safety" malarkey? Holding cash in an up market ain't a winning strategy. This is a contest.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

At any rate, looks like you managed to lose quite a bit of money being in cash, must have had some loses before moving to cash? In an up market?

I don't know but here's my trade history for December:

 

[ransil]

The site is still buggy. I can access my account about once a week other times I'm locked out.

 

[Boho]

We lost sengsational, dixonge, consvgmbl, and wmc1000 this month but I just noticed we gained Jenkins Leroy in December.

My short sell of Boeing on Jan 6 was covered yesterday. I made less than $5000. I have an open order to buy 2200 shares of SPY at $314.00. It's currently at $328.25.

Current Rank	Previous day's rank	Account Value (USD)	Today's change in value	Overall%
1. comsecga	1	$4,046,141.62	($37,485.40)	304.61%
2. Spudd	2	$2,936,252.11	($4,206.00)	193.63%
3. kite_rider	3	$2,562,991.66	$77,270.00	156.30%
4. cfahey27	4	$1,693,914.67	($14,660.50)	69.39%
5. BohoII	5	$1,442,595.11	$3,628.01	44.26%
6. DieWurst	6	$1,333,678.10	$1,049.51	33.37%
7. lbymfreddie	7	$1,291,775.88	($4,421.07)	29.18%
8. covert1	8	$1,263,759.74	($32,280.00)	26.38%
9. nvestysly	9	$1,248,518.12	$1,895.45	24.85%
10. easysurfer	10	$1,193,729.28	$62.66	19.37%
11. RiskyBusinessC2	11	$1,040,578.22	$4,230.00	4.06%
12. natetheb	12	$1,034,260.04	$3,214.70	3.43%
13. guestperson	13	$1,000,760.01	($390.00)	0.08%
14. jmil07	14	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
15. exnavynuke	15	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
16. Jenkins Leroy	16	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
17. lawrencewendall	17	$826,920.55	$1,635.27	-17.31%
18. ransil	18	$796,529.26	$13,449.80	-20.35%

 

[Boho]

January:

Current Rank	Previous day's rank	Account Value (USD)	Today's change in value	Overall%
1. comsecga	1	$3,963,090.82	($36,674.40)	296.31%
2. Spudd	2	$2,897,984.11	($33,582.00)	189.80%
3. kite_rider	3	$2,599,526.66	($7,880.00)	159.95%
4. cfahey27	4	$1,655,043.67	($61,795.00)	65.50%
5. BohoII	5	$1,442,595.11	$0.00	44.26%
6. lbymfreddie	6	$1,293,125.62	($8,555.97)	29.31%
7. DieWurst	7	$1,257,589.50	($31,784.64)	25.76%
8. nvestysly	9	$1,230,346.27	($18,031.45)	23.03%
9. covert1	8	$1,226,694.74	($30,550.00)	22.67%
10. easysurfer	10	$1,176,635.80	($12,690.04)	17.66%
11. natetheb	11	$1,017,169.64	($7,674.16)	1.72%
12. guestperson	13	$1,004,715.01	$3,480.00	0.47%
13. RiskyBusinessC2	12	$1,002,178.22	($4,500.00)	0.22%
14. jmil07	14	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
15. exnavynuke	15	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
16. Jenkins Leroy	16	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
17. lawrencewendall	17	$829,378.37	($5,054.12)	-17.06%
18. ransil	18	$676,716.23	$367.30	-32.33%

I profited from Boeing three times over the last year. It was my only trade in January.

1/14/2020 Cover Stock: BA 2100 $328.49
1/6/2020 Short Stock: BA 2100 $330.65

5/24/2019 Stock: Sell BA 1000 $357.87
5/23/2019 Stock: Buy BA 1000 $348.41

3/25/2019 Cover Stock: BA 800 $363.41
3/11/2019 Short Stock: BA 800 $371.27

I currently have all cash with this one order:

SPY Qty: 2100 Buy Limit at $312.00 Current Price: $321.73

 

[ransil]

I'm getting crushed.
Anyone want some stock tips ?

 

[nvestysly]

I'm very disappointed that Investopedia has not posted dividends to my account in well over a year. I suspect my results with dividends would be slightly higher than what's currently shown for my account. No chance I'm winning since comsecga, Spudd and kite_rider have spectacular results but my buy and hold invetments aren't doing too bad.

Reminds me of a fantasy football league I played a few years ago. I chose my players randomly at the beginning of the season and didn't make one change. I took lots of flack for not making changes even when my 1st string quarterback was on an injury list! My fantasy team finished 3rd for the season.

If I end up in the top 10 of the Beat Boho contest I'll be happy - particularly since my dividends were not reinvested (or even paid) as I had hoped.

 

[ransil]

I'm very disappointed that Investopedia has not posted dividends to my account in well over a year. I suspect my results with dividends would be slightly higher than what's currently shown for my account. No chance I'm winning since comsecga, Spudd and kite_rider have spectacular results but my buy and hold invetments aren't doing too bad.



Reminds me of a fantasy football league I played a few years ago. I chose my players randomly at the beginning of the season and didn't make one change. I took lots of flack for not making changes even when my 1st string quarterback was on an injury list! My fantasy team finished 3rd for the season.



If I end up in the top 10 of the Beat Boho contest I'll be happy - particularly since my dividends were not reinvested (or even paid) as I had hoped.

The top 3 or 4 on the list have had gains they should not have had.

 

[ERD50]

January:
5. BohoII 5 $1,442,595.11 $0.00 44.26%

I currently have all cash with this one order:

SPY Qty: 2100 Buy Limit at $312.00 Current Price: $321.73

According to my calculations, Boho has maintained a slim lead over our VOO/VTI B&H proxy (formerly player nunnun), a lead he has held on just 3 of the 27 months I have tracked this (at that time, he was 15.3% behind, so likely behind for some/most of the 8 missing months).

BohoII $1,442,595.11

VOO/VTI: $1,434,943

Boho cumulative gain %-delta, $-delta: 0.77% , $7,653

-ERD50

 

[pb4uski]

I'm getting crushed.
Anyone want some stock tips ?

Sure... we'll short whatever you are buying.

 

[pb4uski]

According to my calculations, Boho has maintained a slim lead over our VOO/VTI B&H proxy (formerly player nunnun), a lead he has held on just 3 of the 27 months I have tracked this (at that time, he was 15.3% behind, so likely behind for some/most of the 8 missing months).

BohoII $1,442,595.11

VOO/VTI: $1,434,943

Boho cumulative gain %-delta, $-delta: 0.77% , $7,653

-ERD50

Using Portfolio Visualizer for April 2017 through January 2020, I get $1,419,677 for VTSAX and $1,438,103 for VFINX so similar returns as Boho but with a lot less drama.

 

[easysurfer]

A reminder that this contest ends in about a month.

I haven't signed in, in a while to this for awhile. But may have to since I finally got that correction which I've been expecting .

 

[ERD50]

I currently have all cash with this one order:

SPY Qty: 2100 Buy Limit at $312.00 Current Price: $321.73

A reminder that this contest ends in about a month.

I haven't signed in, in a while to this for awhile. But may have to since I finally got that correction which I've been expecting .

Well, if Boho held that cash and limit order, he would have missed much of the recent downturn, relative to our B&H benchmark. If he went in with ~ 60% of his stash, looks like he's down ~ 5% from Feb 1? While B&H would be down ~ 11%?

I guess we will see at the close. And then, another month and anything can happen. From "The Far Side":

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

I'm currently at $1,338,410.93 and long on the S&P 500 with $8,753.94 cash. The S&P is currently down 3.17% for today. I won't be trading today. Here are my trades for February:

 

[Boho]

February (done manually because names no longer show on the rankings page and the end of day account values have to be taken from individual player pages until tomorrow morning)

(1) comsecga
Account Value (USD) $4,008,580.02
Buying Power $2,146,030.02
Cash $283,480.02

(2) Spudd
Account Value (USD) $2,741,363.11
Buying Power $2,046,394.61
Cash $1,351,426.11

(3) kite_rider
Account Value (USD) $2,064,526.66
Buying Power $1,261,486.66
Cash $458,446.66

(4) cfahey27
Account Value (USD) $1,525,883.67
Buying Power $772,420.67
Cash $18,957.67

(5) Boho
Account Value (USD) $1,376,567.18
Buying Power $692,660.56
Cash $8,753.94

(6) lbymfreddie
Account Value (USD) $1,252,343.82
Buying Power $620,751.07
Cash $3,155.12

(7) DieWurst
Account Value (USD) $1,128,456.78
Buying Power $272,739.32
Cash - $582,978.14

(8) easysurfer
Account Value (USD) $1,122,791.32
Buying Power $663,476.44
Cash $204,161.56

(9) nvestysly
Account Value (USD) $1,106,632.73
Buying Power $553,804.57
Cash $976.41

(10) covert1
Account Value (USD) $1,096,679.74
Buying Power $307,104.74
Cash $129.74

(11) jmil07
Account Value (USD) $1,000,000.00
Buying Power $1,000,000.00
Cash $1,000,000.00

(12) exnavynuke
Account Value (USD) $1,000,000.00
Buying Power $1,000,000.00
Cash $1,000,000.00

(13) Jenkins Leroy
Account Value (USD) $1,000,000.00
Buying Power $1,000,000.00
Cash $1,000,000.00

(14) guestperson
Account Value (USD) $997,925.01
Buying Power $965,387.51
Cash $932,850.01

(15) natetheb
Account Value (USD) $957,721.98
Buying Power $491,499.55
Cash $38,257.12

(16) RiskyBusinessC2
Account Value (USD) $951,178.22
Buying Power $624,493.22
Cash $297,808.22

(17) lawrencewendall
Account Value (USD) $667,380.66
Buying Power $82,829.55
Cash - $475,913.85

(19) ransil
Account Value (USD) $580,507.60
Buying Power $200,292.08
Cash $885,358.65

 

[ERD50]

Boho pulled ahead some this month, by going to cash for some time. My numbers for our B&H proxy are (current $, Feb month % gain/loss):

Boho: $1,376,567 -4.58%

B&H: $1,317,265 -8.20%

Which puts Boho ahead by: 5.93% $59,303

For the past 28 months that I've tracked, Boho has been ahead just the past 4. The Boho - B&H $ deltas have been:

$59,303
$7,653
$4,782
$46,979
-$13,863
-$32,994
-$51,237
-$142,022
-$106,676
-$44,021
-$84,701
-$90,563
-$88,107
-$98,960
-$198,267
-$163,262
-$169,676
-$193,288
-$195,292
-$137,526
-$141,109
-$98,759
-$108,421
-$127,000
-$183,157
-$187,994
-$153,644
-$157,117


-ERD50

 

[ckelly78z]

A little day trading today with virus pharma penny stocks. I more than doubled my money on IBIO, and separately RTTR yesterday, and today....working the dips, and the spikes.

 

[Boho]

I calculated that the approximate number of my trades is 631. As was pointed out last year, trade history is incomplete but the number of my trades can be calculated using numbers previously posted to this thread. Here I calculated that the number of my trades up to May 30, 2019 was 474. Since then I've made 157 trades, totaling 631 trades.

Me and Ransil are probably the two most active traders but I can't accurately determine his trade count because his stats between May 30, 2019 and October 17, 2019 are missing. Excluding that missing period, his trade count is 565.

Also, anyone can refer to this post for instructions on how to log in to view the rankings. I provided log-in information for the player named guestperson. If that login doesn't work it's because someone messed it up because they hate freedom and they're jealous and probably a communist. It still worked as of a few minutes ago.

 

[Boho]

Three weeks left. There's no telling what information will still be available on Investopedia after the contest because of all the bugs so I'll post this now in case it becomes unavailable at the end and in case anyone's interested. I don't think I'll be trading anymore in this contest. My current account value is $1,385,555.98 and I have 2329 of SPY, 2530 of VOO (both are S&P 500 funds) and $1,600.94 cash.

 

[Lawrencewendall]

I stopped paying attention to this simulation. It stopped posting monthly dividends in December 2018 but keeps charging monthly interest on margin buys. Ironically, today I got an email about a margin call. Pound sand!

 

[Boho]

Two weeks left

Current Rank	Previous day's rank	Account Value (USD)	Today's change in value	Overall%
1. comsecga	1	$3,639,765.02	$164,749.60	263.98%
2. Spudd	2	$2,601,316.11	$73,199.00	160.13%
3. cfahey27	4	$1,454,192.17	$143,535.00	45.42%
4. kite_rider	3	$1,353,146.66	($66,905.00)	35.31%
5. BohoII	5	$1,258,356.76	$102,932.89	25.84%
6. lbymfreddie	6	$1,194,503.06	$56,434.00	19.45%
7. nvestysly	12	$1,046,083.31	$77,664.73	4.61%
8. easysurfer	11	$1,036,921.78	$55,914.08	3.69%
9. Jenkins Leroy	9	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
10. exnavynuke	8	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
11. jmil07	7	$1,000,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
12. guestperson	10	$987,635.01	$2,570.00	-1.24%
13. covert1	13	$928,989.74	$55,932.00	-7.10%
14. DieWurst	15	$880,497.82	$87,114.28	-11.95%
15. RiskyBusinessC2	14	$847,078.22	($1,800.00)	-15.29%
16. natetheb	16	$812,732.48	$22,491.07	-18.73%
17. ransil	17	$523,863.38	($17,416.65)	-47.61%
18. lawrencewendall	18	$454,784.80	$47,029.05	-54.52%

The game also provides lists of most popular buys and shorts but I'm not sure if it's a sum of all shares bought or the latest single trade of the stocks. I guess it's not the number of players who bought the stock because of all the round numbers. It should probably say "shares bought" instead of "# bought".

Most Popular Buys (# bought)

MannKind Corporation (MNKD) 104,200

American Airlines Group, Inc. (AAL) 47,825

Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB) 44,000

MSG Networks Inc. Class A (MSGN) 30,000

SM Energy Company (SM) 24,000

Most Popular Shorts (# bought)

Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) 12,600

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) 8,574

iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) 6,000

Tesla Inc (TSLA) 2,995

Boeing Company (BA) 2,900

 

[Boho]

One week left.