Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[Boho]

This will be my victory dance.

 

[ERD50]

Nice! Better keep a back-up in a safe place. You may not get to use it until the "Beat Boho Contest - V42.0".

-ERD50

 

[sengsational]

But w/o some data to show me that I can pick a strategy or someone with a strategy to do it, it's a unicorn.

Either that, or a black swan. Doesn't Warren Buffet have a "system" that works?

I'm just messing around, you know that. I'm as convinced as anyone here that consistently beating the market near impossible.

 

[ERD50]

Either that, or a black swan. Doesn't Warren Buffet have a "system" that works?

I'm just messing around, you know that. I'm as convinced as anyone here that consistently beating the market near impossible.

Sure, but even Buffett (BRK) has lagged the S&P total return over the past 10 years, plus it seems he was more than just a "stock picker", he was active in some of these companies I think:

PerfCharts | Free Charts | StockCharts.com

set the slider to 2520 days (these are trading days apparently) to get to 10 years.


So can we get an end of the year snapshot of the contest? Or is that not really up-to-date, it was mentioned it doesn't reflect values until an "event" occurs or something?


-ERD50

 

[Boho]

I'll work on an accurate one from the individual portfolio pages...

 

[Boho]

1. exnavynuke: $1,317,526.58
2. Totoro_ERF: $1,311,227.57
3. up98down34: $1,264,512.51
4. comsecga: $1,226,090.81
5. DieWurst: $1,179,518.16
6. Fermion1: $1,178,619.67
7. nunnun: $1,147,362.15
8. sengsational: $1,108,386.70
9. RISP: $1,108,051.24
10. kite_rider: $1,097,370.26
11. nvestysly: $1,090,961.55
12. cfahey27: $1,089,704.90
13. easysurfer: $1,075,003.66
14. Spudd: $1,058,024.73
15. RiskyBusinessC2: $1,033,115.69
16. lbymfreddie: $1,016,067.52
17. MizRosie: $1,000,000.00
18. longshot345kv: $1,000,000.00
19. garyweis: $1,000,000.00
20. Clone2: $994,921.22
21. BohoII: $993,718.01
22. lawrencewendall: $992,073.02
23. trashcan12: $954,232.70
24. Fermion: $721,775.02

 

[Boho]

ALERT: Check your open trades. I think all of mine were deleted. On the previous trading day there were several that appeared on my portfolio page and today I saw there were none yet none of them executed. None in my Open Trades list either.

 

[ERD50]

12-28-2017, 01:21 PM

... I'm at $1,005,000 now. ...

1. exnavynuke: $1,317,526.58
2. Totoro_ERF: $1,311,227.57
3. up98down34: $1,264,512.51
4. comsecga: $1,226,090.81
5. DieWurst: $1,179,518.16
6. Fermion1: $1,178,619.67
7. nunnun: $1,147,362.15

21. BohoII: $993,718.01
...

Wow, what happened between $1,005,000 on the afternoon of 12-28, and $993,718 at close on 12-29? A greater than 1.1% drop in less than day! That's a lot of catching up to do. About 15.5% behind the napper, nunnun (shhhh, don't disturb his slumber). SPY was about flat those days.

12-22-2017, 02:41 PM

Here's a comparison between my holdings of today and today's general bear market.

So bragging about being up when SPY was down a fraction of a % for the day? But then, a few days later...

Heck, maybe you'll get lucky and have a few picks that let you skyrocket past nunnun. I wonder if you'll have the sense to just buy the market at that point, or risk giving it back?

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Wow, what happened between $1,005,000 on the afternoon of 12-28, and $993,718 at close on 12-29?

So we no longer care about comparing monthly gains and we have to look weekly? FWIW, I'm at $1,011,572.98 now while nunnun is at $1,152,914.39.

 

[ERD50]

So we no longer care about comparing monthly gains and we have to look weekly? FWIW, I'm at $1,011,572.98 now while nunnun is at $1,152,914.39.

Well, aren't you are the one who bragged about a daily gain?

I'm fine with monthly, buy when you report some numbers with over a $10K drop from one afternoon to the next, after bragging abut a one-day pop, expect a comment from the peanut gallery.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Here's the latest transaction count for players who had over 20 transactions throughout the contest as of November:

BohoII: 153
sengsational: 98
Spudd: 83
RISP: 37
comsecga: 31
nvestysly: 22

 

[ERD50]

Here's the latest transaction count for players who had over 20 transactions throughout the contest as of November:

BohoII: 153
sengsational: 98
Spudd: 83
RISP: 37
comsecga: 31
nvestysly: 22

So of the top 6 most active traders, only one has surpassed the Buy & Hold index napper nunnun? Defies the odds! And their average is 4.34 % under the market?

Amazing! Or maybe not?

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

So of the top 6 most active traders, only one has surpassed the Buy & Hold index napper nunnun? Defies the odds! And their average is 4.34 % under the market?

Amazing! Or maybe not?

-ERD50

I'd probably have predicted the same, only I'll be ahead of nunnun more often than not. Trading won't win this contest. I will.

 

[kite_rider]

That was fun! After coming in late (started in Oct) and doing 'stock picking', I still managed to break into the top 10.

How does this work for 2018? Do we keep playing with our current picks or start over?

Another newbie question; my account is showing a value of approx $1,112,000. However in the rankings it is currently showing aprrox $1,022,000 (and 16th place rather than the 10th place it would be if the account showed it's actual value).

What is going on with the values in the Rankings tab?

 

[Boho]

That was fun! After coming in late (started in Oct) and doing 'stock picking', I still managed to break into the top 10.

How does this work for 2018? Do we keep playing with our current picks or start over?

Keep playing with current picks. But you can obviously buy and sell whenever you want.

Another newbie question; my account is showing a value of approx $1,112,000. However in the rankings it is currently showing aprrox $1,022,000 (and 16th place rather than the 10th place it would be if the account showed it's actual value).

What is going on with the values in the Rankings tab?

The rankings don't get updated as often as your account page or your portfolio page. There needs to be a transaction or dividend or something before the rankings get updated. The $1,112,000 is the accurate value.

 

[easysurfer]

That was fun! After coming in late (started in Oct) and doing 'stock picking', I still managed to break into the top 10.

How does this work for 2018? Do we keep playing with our current picks or start over?
...

Welcome aboard. Keep playing. The contest ends on 3/29/2020 which is 3 years after the contest start date.

 

[ERD50]

I'd probably have predicted the same, only I'll be ahead of nunnun more often than not. Trading won't win this contest. I will.

Based on your predictive capability to date then - you won't!

Not only will you very, very, very probably not win the contest, you are increasingly unlikely (less than 50/50 now) to do better than the simple 'buy & hold the market and take a nap' approach.

Good luck (you're gonna need it!)!

wow - 567 posts to this thread! And how many are about actual stock picking versus bragging/'bashing'?

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Not only will you very, very, very probably not win the contest, you are increasingly unlikely (less than 50/50 now) to do better than the simple 'buy & hold the market and take a nap' approach.

Yeah, if you want to ignore my streak. I'm not ignoring it. I'm at $1,021,642.32.

 

[ERD50]

Yeah, if you want to ignore my streak. I'm not ignoring it. I'm at $1,021,642.32.

And you're ignoring the only 'streak' that matters - the one since the beginning of the contest!

Looks like nunnun would be at ~ $1,171,654.27 based on current and EOY close for SPY (272.51 / 266.86 +2.12% ), so you are only ~ $150,000 behind.

As I said at the beginning, a non-diversified portfolio will likely be volatile. Both on the up and the down side. So far, you've defied the odds by only being on the downside in this contest. Have you considered turning your portfolio over to the iconic dart-throwing monkey?


Hah! I just ran the numbers on your "streak" - YTD, nunnun is up 2.12%, and you are up (drum roll please....) $1,021,642.32 / $993,718.01 +2.81%. So 2.81 versus 2.12. You gotta lot of catching up to do.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

So far, you've defied the odds by only being on the downside in this contest.-ERD50

OK, that explains things. You forgot.

 

[ERD50]

OK, that explains things. You forgot.

Ahh, so I guess I did forget that you were in the lead for what, a couple selected weeks in June of 2017? Not even the entire month from what I can tell from what was posted, and your fall from grace (posted 7/6/2017) didn't just take you out of the Win, Place, or Show slots, but behind our napping Buy & Hold reference, nunnun.

So maybe ~ 1/8th of the contest you were ahead? I guess I see how I could have forgotten that.

So yes, you had a brief time in the sun, as I said could be expected with a non-diversified portfolio. Can you swing back? Maybe. But your track record indicates that's an uphill battle. And it doesn't appear that you are prepared for battle either, more like a prepared for a bouncy-house game.

Good luck.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

a non-diversified portfolio...

153 trades. Put an asterisk next to "non-diversified."

 

[SecondCor521]

I have $349,310.00 in ARNA

153 trades. Put an asterisk next to "non-diversified."

Yeah, I'd put an asterisk there. Maybe not the way you intended it.

To your credit, if you still hold ARNA it's done well lately. (Do you?)

Heavy trading and diversification are two different things, in case you were wondering.

 

[Boho]

To your credit, if you still hold ARNA it's done well lately. (Do you?)

No. Bought 13000 shares on 7/11/2017 for $26.87, sold on 10/18/2017 for $27.88.

$362,440 - $349,310 = $13,130.

 

[ERD50]

No. Bought 13000 shares on 7/11/2017 for $26.87, sold on 10/18/2017 for $27.88.

$362,440 - $349,310 = $13,130.

So even when you end up with a winning stock, your timing doesn't get you any better than the market did (while nunnun napped). It's uncannily, almost exactly the same as market returns:



-ERD50