Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[SecondCor521]

I haven't been tending that game since the investopedia game took over. Is anyone here doing anything over there?

You mean, besides beating Boho?

 

[FUEGO]

I think my five year old just beat Boho and my kiddo isn't even playing.

 

[Boho]

Yawn. As if your holdings had not profited from the general bull market. You're talking pretty big for someone in 17th place.

Here's a comparison between my holdings of today and today's general bear market.

 

[RISP]

And one day proofs what?

 

[ERD50]

Here's a comparison between my holdings of today and today's general bear market.

One day? "Bear Market" (SPY down 0.03%?)?

It's not a 10 month contest. If anyone with a short attention span would like a side contest of months instead of years let me know. I'd trade differently.

And one day proofs what?

Well, it proves quite a bit, but probably not what Boho intended!

-ERD50

 

[RISP]

I don't know who trashcan12 is, but in case they are following this thread: I'm curious how you lost 63% on DES? It's described as "tracking an index of dividend-paying US stocks." Your purchase price looks awfully high - what went wrong here?

 

[Clone]

I haven't been tending that game since the investopedia game took over. Is anyone here doing anything over there?

Thanks for the link to the old game. Looks like I have 2nd place!

Portfolio was 43% CAT, 42% AAPL, and 15% MO.

CAT has been on a real ride this past year. I wish I had some of it in my real portfolio.

I had not been able to get a password reset to look at it, and forgot about it until now. I should have moved the 'secret formula' into the new game!

 

[SecondCor521]

^My Dad owns some CAT. It's done really well this year and may do very well next year if the federal government passes an infrastructure bill.

 

[Boho]

Finally, DRAD is, maybe, on track to paying off. It's my biggest loser and the only stock I currently hold in real life.

 

[ERD50]

Finally, DRAD is, maybe, on track to paying off. It's my biggest loser and the only stock I currently hold in real life.

You sure know how to pick 'em!

So you are doing worse in real life than in this contest? That defies the odds! You'd very likely be better off paying a dart-throwing-monkey a 2% AUM fee than picking [-]losers[/-] stocks on your own.

Incredible. You comin' around yet, or still in denial?

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

You sure know how to pick 'em!

So you are doing worse in real life than in this contest? That defies the odds! You'd very likely be better off paying a dart-throwing-monkey a 2% AUM fee than picking [-]losers[/-] stocks on your own.

Incredible. You comin' around yet, or still in denial?

-ERD50

I covered this. My first choice of system worked but I was unsure of the consequences of getting my account restricted every other month for buying with unsettled funds so I changed my system so I could hold longer. I waited for stronger stocks and bought more, but it didn't work. My stock picking record remains outstanding even in real life but that one stock under the new system was way down for about the last 9 months. I thought it may still be promising enough to hold and now it may be turning around, but I don't buy like that any more.

 

[Boho]

And by "it didn't work" I mean it didn't work in the short time frame that I was accustomed to my picks paying off in. Maybe it works but it's not for me. It's hard to determine if a system where you make a few big trades that you hold for a year or two is a winning system. That's not what I want. I'd choose index investing over that.

 

[Texas Proud]

I covered this. My first choice of system worked but I was unsure of the consequences of getting my account restricted every other month for buying with unsettled funds so I changed my system so I could hold longer. I waited for stronger stocks and bought more, but it didn't work. My stock picking record remains outstanding even in real life but that one stock under the new system was way down for about the last 9 months. I thought it may still be promising enough to hold and now it may be turning around, but I don't buy like that any more.

If you make it a margin account you can trade on unsettled funds....

 

[Boho]

If you make it a margin account you can trade on unsettled funds....

I tried but I was turned down. I want to find some details on the requirements so I know what I have to do.

 

[ERD50]

... It's hard to determine if a system where you make a few big trades that you hold for a year or two is a winning system. ...

No it's not. Like we've been telling you all along, there are endless studies on "systems". They don't work, or sometimes, they work until they don't. With no warning when they will work and when they don't.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

No it's not. Like we've been telling you all along, there are endless studies on "systems". They don't work, or sometimes, they work until they don't. With no warning when they will work and when they don't.

-ERD50

I read about some that work. Some because they're new enough, some because they're too time consuming/expensive to be attractive to enough people to render them ineffective (momentum investing). But I have my own spin on investing.

 

[easysurfer]

I read about some that work. Some because they're new enough, some because they're too time consuming/expensive to be attractive to enough people to render them ineffective (momentum investing). But I have my own spin on investing.

Just to be clear, by "that work", we are talking about beating the market on a consistent basis?

I was looking at the contest standings, looks like by then end of the year, you have a chance to break $1,000,000 .

 

[Boho]

Just to be clear, by "that work", we are talking about beating the market on a consistent basis?

I don't remember how they defined "work" but I assume so. Consistent enough. I see that word used a lot and I wonder if people are being too strict about it. If you're likely enough to beat the market in any given year and not lose by a huge amount, it works. It doesn't matter if you don't beat the market 100% of the time.

I was looking at the contest standings, looks like by then end of the year, you have a chance to break $1,000,000 .

I've been hovering around $1,000,000 for days. I'm at $1,005,000 now. You have to click the History link. It's not in the ranking yet.

 

[ERD50]

I read about some that work. Some because they're new enough, some because they're too time consuming/expensive to be attractive to enough people to render them ineffective (momentum investing). But I have my own spin on investing.

Spin? If by that you mean "downward spiral", OK, I'd have to agree!

-ERD50

 

[easysurfer]

...


I've been hovering around $1,000,000 for days. I'm at $1,005,000 now. You have to click the History link. It's not in the ranking yet.

I was being a bit facetious about the $1,000,000 goal, as with all the trading and analysis you've done, remember, we started at $1,000,000 at contest start .

 

[ERD50]

I was being a bit facetious about the $1,000,000 goal, as with all the trading and analysis you've done, remember, we started at $1,000,000 at contest start .

Maybe the thread title needs to be tweaked a little bit:

"Picking on Boho Contest - V2.0"

-ERD50

 

[easysurfer]

Maybe the thread title needs to be tweaked a little bit:

"Picking on Boho Contest - V2.0"

-ERD50

Boho's been a very good sport.

 

[ERD50]

Boho's been a very good sport.

Yes he has.

And I would hope he can take a little good natured ribbing, considering all the bravado and BS he has dished out!

-ERD50

 

[sengsational]

Boho's been a very good sport.

Yes. Maybe letting things play-out would be the best approach.

It's really a no-win situation here for the Boho's of the world. Pretty much everyone here is thoroughly convinced that there is no way to consistently beat the market. So if, after 3 years, contestant A, B, or C is way ahead of the index investor, then it was "just a lucky pick" (or set of lucky picks). If any of those A, B or C are on par or behind the index investor, then it's "proof" that if you try to beat the market, you'll be worse off.

I've said it before...this is a GAME and it's a chance to play around with something you might not do with your "real money". If I simply invested in this game the same way I did in real life, it wouldn't be worth playing (no entertainment value). I'm thankful for players with "crazy" strategies; those are more interesting. We really only need one VOO investor to act as a data point, and the rest, taking different approaches are where we will all learn.

 

[ERD50]

Yes. Maybe letting things play-out would be the best approach.

.... So if, after 3 years, contestant A, B, or C is way ahead of the index investor, then it was "just a lucky pick" (or set of lucky picks). If any of those A, B or C are on par or behind the index investor, then it's "proof" that if you try to beat the market, you'll be worse off. ....

Oh, I think I've been clear from the start that a contest like this really can't prove anything one way or the other. Too short a time frame, too small a sample size. But it does appear to have shown us what one would expect - the "pickers" have generally been volatile, with some ahead and some behind the B&H indexer.

It's a little surprising to me just how poorly the pickers have performed though. Way more than 50% are trailing. So please allow me a little "dart-throwing-monkey" humor!

... It's really a no-win situation here for the Boho's of the world. Pretty much everyone here is thoroughly convinced that there is no way to consistently beat the market. ....

Well, why wouldn't we be convinced, considering all the studies? Can you present evidence to the contrary?

And to be more precise, I wouldn't say that "that there is no way to consistently beat the market.". But w/o some data to show me that I can pick a strategy or someone with a strategy to do it, it's a unicorn. If I can't identify it and use it, it mythical to me. Maybe we can't prove they don't exist, but I'm sure not going to promise a kid a unicorn, or a market beating strategy, for their birthday.

Oh, and Boho has dished out a huge plate of bravado about his abilities time and time again, so I don't feel that it's really "picking on" him, just calling his bluff.

And of course, I sure don't rule out the possibility that he's just trolling us. Rock, Paper, Scissors? Seriously?

-ERD50