Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

IRL, is it possible to cut a deal with a brokerage to pay higher interest for extra margin?
 
Investopedia has the worst writers. Second article in two days that seems to have an error or be very poorly written, though I could be wrong. I stopped reading but I think the answer to my question is sometimes yes. If a brokerage sets a margin limit below the legal limit then it may be willing and allowed to raise it for a fee.
 
I think they may have given me 17,000 free shares of CGC due to some sort of bug. In my trade history there are 2 transactions of 17,000 shares at the same exact timestamp. I believe that my account was debited for the first lot and not for the 2nd, it's the only way I can make the numbers line up.

17,000 shares adds up to $527,000 which when added to my actual profit seems to account for the difference.
 
Spudd said:
I think they may have given me 17,000 free shares of CGC due to some sort of bug. In my trade history there are 2 transactions of 17,000 shares at the same exact timestamp. I believe that my account was debited for the first lot and not for the 2nd, it's the only way I can make the numbers line up.

17,000 shares adds up to $527,000 which when added to my actual profit seems to account for the difference.
Click to expand...

I had a double trade a few weeks ago buying Home depot, not sure I got free shares.
 
Maybe sengsational will create a double trade detector for us. His software is a good reason to continue with Investopedia if there's another contest, especially if we can deal with this bug.
 
ransil said:
I had a double trade a few weeks ago buying Home depot, not sure I got free shares.
Click to expand...

That was for 200 shares per trade and you later sold 400 shares so either the game sometimes buys half and half or it buys what you want twice and lets you sell twice what you wanted.

You have another double trade of AMDA on 6/27/2018.
 
Someone should test whether an accidental double click on "Submit Order" could cause this.
 

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We were talking about flopping up and down. I wanted some kind of volatility measurement.

...one that includes more than just me and nunnun.
 
Boho said:
Maybe sengsational will create a double trade detector for us. His software is a good reason to continue with Investopedia if there's another contest, especially if we can deal with this bug.
Click to expand...
Last time I looked at Spudd's trades, there was a mis-alignment (trades did not align with holdings). I didn't dig into it because I thought it might correct itself. Up until recently, the only other misalignment I noticed was after Fermion shorted a stock that was later de-listed, and there was no cover transaction. I manually inserted a cover transaction in my local database for that one.
 
Moving this discussion from Tariff Relief Rally thread....
Boho said:
Another rally is coming within the next 24 trading hours. Probably beginning this afternoon. .. .
Click to expand...


Define 'rally". Any up day? Up from here? Any % up, or some minimum %?

24 trading hours - does that take us to next Wednesday PM, Thursday AM?

I suppose there's a pretty good chance of an undefined 'rally' sometime over the next 3.7 days.




Looks like you blew "probably". Better luck on the rest.

At today's close, near the day's low: SPY 260.57 -4.80 -1.81%

-ERD50
 
Boho should have posted here:

Boho said:
Bloomberg, December 14, 2018:

"If the Fed predictor proves accurate and Santa Claus skips Wall Street, it’d be the first time since 2010 that the economy grew by 3 percent and the S&P 500 fell at least 10 percent in the same quarter.

"'It is obvious that the economy is not falling apart nearly as quickly as the markets are implying,' said Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro Research."

I'm looking for a rally after hours or Monday. I'm betting on after hours.
Click to expand...

"I'm looking for a rally after hours or Monday. I'm betting on after hours."

Well, if your first prediction does not succeed, try, try again. You are bound to be right one of these days! :facepalm:

-ERD50
 
ERD50 said:
Define 'rally".
Click to expand...

IDK, I go by feel. If I get to define it, I'll say a percentage gain equaling or surpassing the average highest gain for a session in a 100 day period.
 
Boho said:
We were talking about flopping up and down. I wanted some kind of volatility measurement.

...one that includes more than just me and nunnun.
Click to expand...

The usual measure is the standard deviation of closing asset prices on a daily basis over some period of time. Calculating it would require daily closing prices for all holdings over the desired time period. Perhaps Investopedia provides that calculation, but I doubt it.

Keep searching. Eventually you will find some metric on which you "win". But it will be a Pyrrhic victory if you choose it.
 
Boho said:
IDK, I go by feel. If I get to define it, I'll say a percentage gain equaling or surpassing the average highest gain for a session in a 100 day period.
Click to expand...

Oh why not.

What does "average highest" mean? I know what those two words mean individually, but I can't imagine a coherent definition of them together.

When does the 100 day period start? Does it include calendar days or just trading days?

What asset or index are you choosing? DJIA, gold, CAT, Brent, the Pound, bitcoin, beaver cheese futures, other?
 
Boho said:
Maybe sengsational will create a double trade detector for us. His software is a good reason to continue with Investopedia if there's another contest, especially if we can deal with this bug.
Click to expand...
I didn't see a way to figure out if shares were not charged for in all these instances, but certainly it happened in the case of Spudd in December.



Since the trades and the holdings are in alignment, it's not like the Fermion case, where there's a disconnect between the two.



This scenario appears to be opaque to the simulation users because the only thing that happens is that the cost of the shares isn't subtracted from the cash balance. We are not offered an accounting of those separate transactions, so I'm not sure how one would detect a problem unless the magnitude is so large, as in the Spudd case.



Code: 
same minute trades:

Spudd
Duplicate trade [12/06/2018 10:12 AM, ActivityCode: 0, Ticker: CGC, Key: 201812061012CGC14108, Shares: 17000, Price: 28.4, Ext: 482804.99, ] [12/06/2018 10:12 AM, ActivityCode: 0, Ticker: CGC, Key: 201812061012CGC24148, Shares: 17000, Price: 28.35, Ext: 481954.99, ]
Duplicate trade [12/06/2018 10:12 AM, ActivityCode: 0, Ticker: CGC, Key: 201812061012CGC24148, Shares: 17000, Price: 28.35, Ext: 481954.99, ] [12/06/2018 10:12 AM, ActivityCode: 0, Ticker: CGC, Key: 201812061012CGC14108, Shares: 17000, Price: 28.4, Ext: 482804.99, ]
-----------------
ransil
Duplicate trade [06/21/2018 11:54 AM, ActivityCode: 0, Ticker: RWLK, Key: 201806211154RWLK88157, Shares: 770, Price: 1.0, Ext: 774.99, ] [06/21/2018 11:54 AM, ActivityCode: 0, Ticker: RWLK, Key: 201806211154RWLK88656, Shares: 770, Price: 1.0, Ext: 774.99, ]
Duplicate trade [06/21/2018 11:54 AM, ActivityCode: 0, Ticker: RWLK, Key: 201806211154RWLK88656, Shares: 770, Price: 1.0, Ext: 774.99, ] [06/21/2018 11:54 AM, ActivityCode: 0, Ticker: RWLK, Key: 201806211154RWLK88157, Shares: 770, Price: 1.0, Ext: 774.99, ]
Duplicate trade [06/26/2018 01:58 PM, ActivityCode: 0, Ticker: ADOM, Key: 201806261358ADOM42694, Shares: 4000, Price: 1.13, Ext: 4524.99, ] [06/26/2018 01:58 PM, ActivityCode: 0, Ticker: ADOM, Key: 201806261358ADOM43193, Shares: 4000, Price: 1.13, Ext: 4524.99, ]
Duplicate trade [06/26/2018 01:58 PM, ActivityCode: 0, Ticker: ADOM, Key: 201806261358ADOM43193, Shares: 4000, Price: 1.13, Ext: 4524.99, ] [06/26/2018 01:58 PM, ActivityCode: 0, Ticker: ADOM, Key: 201806261358ADOM42694, Shares: 4000, Price: 1.13, Ext: 4524.99, ]
Duplicate trade [06/27/2018 03:52 PM, ActivityCode: 0, Ticker: AMDA, Key: 201806271552AMDA65774, Shares: 4000, Price: 1.03, Ext: 4124.99, ] [06/27/2018 03:52 PM, ActivityCode: 0, Ticker: AMDA, Key: 201806271552AMDA66273, Shares: 4000, Price: 1.03, Ext: 4124.99, ]
Duplicate trade [06/27/2018 03:52 PM, ActivityCode: 0, Ticker: AMDA, Key: 201806271552AMDA66273, Shares: 4000, Price: 1.03, Ext: 4124.99, ] [06/27/2018 03:52 PM, ActivityCode: 0, Ticker: AMDA, Key: 201806271552AMDA65774, Shares: 4000, Price: 1.03, Ext: 4124.99, ]
Duplicate trade [07/20/2018 12:45 PM, ActivityCode: 1, Ticker: RWLK, Key: 201807201245RWLK08754, Shares: 1900, Price: 1.3, Ext: 2465.01, ] [07/20/2018 12:45 PM, ActivityCode: 1, Ticker: RWLK, Key: 201807201245RWLK09253, Shares: 5000, Price: 1.3, Ext: 6495.01, ]
Duplicate trade [07/20/2018 12:45 PM, ActivityCode: 1, Ticker: RWLK, Key: 201807201245RWLK08754, Shares: 1900, Price: 1.3, Ext: 2465.01, ] [07/20/2018 12:45 PM, ActivityCode: 1, Ticker: RWLK, Key: 201807201245RWLK09752, Shares: 10000, Price: 1.3, Ext: 12995.01, ]
Duplicate trade [07/20/2018 12:45 PM, ActivityCode: 1, Ticker: RWLK, Key: 201807201245RWLK08754, Shares: 1900, Price: 1.3, Ext: 2465.01, ] [07/20/2018 12:45 PM, ActivityCode: 1, Ticker: RWLK, Key: 201807201245RWLK10251, Shares: 5000, Price: 1.3, Ext: 6495.01, ]
Duplicate trade [07/20/2018 12:45 PM, ActivityCode: 1, Ticker: RWLK, Key: 201807201245RWLK09253, Shares: 5000, Price: 1.3, Ext: 6495.01, ] [07/20/2018 12:45 PM, ActivityCode: 1, Ticker: RWLK, Key: 201807201245RWLK08754, Shares: 1900, Price: 1.3, Ext: 2465.01, ]
Duplicate trade [07/20/2018 12:45 PM, ActivityCode: 1, Ticker: RWLK, Key: 201807201245RWLK09253, Shares: 5000, Price: 1.3, Ext: 6495.01, ] [07/20/2018 12:45 PM, ActivityCode: 1, Ticker: RWLK, Key: 201807201245RWLK09752, Shares: 10000, Price: 1.3, Ext: 12995.01, ]
Duplicate trade [07/20/2018 12:45 PM, ActivityCode: 1, Ticker: RWLK, Key: 201807201245RWLK09253, Shares: 5000, Price: 1.3, Ext: 6495.01, ] [07/20/2018 12:45 PM, ActivityCode: 1, Ticker: RWLK, Key: 201807201245RWLK10251, Shares: 5000, Price: 1.3, Ext: 6495.01, ]
Duplicate trade [07/20/2018 12:45 PM, ActivityCode: 1, Ticker: RWLK, Key: 201807201245RWLK09752, Shares: 10000, Price: 1.3, Ext: 12995.01, ] [07/20/2018 12:45 PM, ActivityCode: 1, Ticker: RWLK, Key: 201807201245RWLK08754, Shares: 1900, Price: 1.3, Ext: 2465.01, ]
Duplicate trade [07/20/2018 12:45 PM, ActivityCode: 1, Ticker: RWLK, Key: 201807201245RWLK09752, Shares: 10000, Price: 1.3, Ext: 12995.01, ] [07/20/2018 12:45 PM, ActivityCode: 1, Ticker: RWLK, Key: 201807201245RWLK09253, Shares: 5000, Price: 1.3, Ext: 6495.01, ]
Duplicate trade [07/20/2018 12:45 PM, ActivityCode: 1, Ticker: RWLK, Key: 201807201245RWLK09752, Shares: 10000, Price: 1.3, Ext: 12995.01, ] [07/20/2018 12:45 PM, ActivityCode: 1, Ticker: RWLK, Key: 201807201245RWLK10251, Shares: 5000, Price: 1.3, Ext: 6495.01, ]
Duplicate trade [07/20/2018 12:45 PM, ActivityCode: 1, Ticker: RWLK, Key: 201807201245RWLK10251, Shares: 5000, Price: 1.3, Ext: 6495.01, ] [07/20/2018 12:45 PM, ActivityCode: 1, Ticker: RWLK, Key: 201807201245RWLK08754, Shares: 1900, Price: 1.3, Ext: 2465.01, ]
Duplicate trade [07/20/2018 12:45 PM, ActivityCode: 1, Ticker: RWLK, Key: 201807201245RWLK10251, Shares: 5000, Price: 1.3, Ext: 6495.01, ] [07/20/2018 12:45 PM, ActivityCode: 1, Ticker: RWLK, Key: 201807201245RWLK09253, Shares: 5000, Price: 1.3, Ext: 6495.01, ]
Duplicate trade [07/20/2018 12:45 PM, ActivityCode: 1, Ticker: RWLK, Key: 201807201245RWLK10251, Shares: 5000, Price: 1.3, Ext: 6495.01, ] [07/20/2018 12:45 PM, ActivityCode: 1, Ticker: RWLK, Key: 201807201245RWLK09752, Shares: 10000, Price: 1.3, Ext: 12995.01, ]
Duplicate trade [07/25/2018 10:04 AM, ActivityCode: 0, Ticker: F, Key: 201807251004F43807, Shares: 1000, Price: 10.25, Ext: 10254.89, ] [07/25/2018 10:04 AM, ActivityCode: 0, Ticker: F, Key: 201807251004F44306, Shares: 1000, Price: 10.25, Ext: 10254.89, ]
Duplicate trade [07/25/2018 10:04 AM, ActivityCode: 0, Ticker: F, Key: 201807251004F43807, Shares: 1000, Price: 10.25, Ext: 10254.89, ] [07/25/2018 10:04 AM, ActivityCode: 0, Ticker: F, Key: 201807251004F44805, Shares: 2000, Price: 10.25, Ext: 20504.79, ]
Duplicate trade [07/25/2018 10:04 AM, ActivityCode: 0, Ticker: F, Key: 201807251004F44306, Shares: 1000, Price: 10.25, Ext: 10254.89, ] [07/25/2018 10:04 AM, ActivityCode: 0, Ticker: F, Key: 201807251004F43807, Shares: 1000, Price: 10.25, Ext: 10254.89, ]
Duplicate trade [07/25/2018 10:04 AM, ActivityCode: 0, Ticker: F, Key: 201807251004F44306, Shares: 1000, Price: 10.25, Ext: 10254.89, ] [07/25/2018 10:04 AM, ActivityCode: 0, Ticker: F, Key: 201807251004F44805, Shares: 2000, Price: 10.25, Ext: 20504.79, ]
Duplicate trade [07/25/2018 10:04 AM, ActivityCode: 0, Ticker: F, Key: 201807251004F44805, Shares: 2000, Price: 10.25, Ext: 20504.79, ] [07/25/2018 10:04 AM, ActivityCode: 0, Ticker: F, Key: 201807251004F43807, Shares: 1000, Price: 10.25, Ext: 10254.89, ]
Duplicate trade [07/25/2018 10:04 AM, ActivityCode: 0, Ticker: F, Key: 201807251004F44805, Shares: 2000, Price: 10.25, Ext: 20504.79, ] [07/25/2018 10:04 AM, ActivityCode: 0, Ticker: F, Key: 201807251004F44306, Shares: 1000, Price: 10.25, Ext: 10254.89, ]
Duplicate trade [11/14/2018 09:57 AM, ActivityCode: 1, Ticker: UPL, Key: 201811140957UPL16695, Shares: 5000, Price: 1.95, Ext: 9745.01, ] [11/14/2018 09:57 AM, ActivityCode: 1, Ticker: UPL, Key: 201811140957UPL17194, Shares: 2000, Price: 1.95, Ext: 3895.01, ]
Duplicate trade [11/14/2018 09:57 AM, ActivityCode: 1, Ticker: UPL, Key: 201811140957UPL17194, Shares: 2000, Price: 1.95, Ext: 3895.01, ] [11/14/2018 09:57 AM, ActivityCode: 1, Ticker: UPL, Key: 201811140957UPL16695, Shares: 5000, Price: 1.95, Ext: 9745.01, ]
 
SecondCor521 said:
...a percentage gain equaling or surpassing the average highest gain for a session in a 100 day period.
Click to expand...
Oh why not.

What does "average highest" mean? I know what those two words mean individually, but I can't imagine a coherent definition of them together.
Click to expand...

Make a list of the gain from the sessions with the highest gains in a rolling 100 day period in the previous two years, which would be about 630 numbers, and divide by 630.

When does the 100 day period start? Does it include calendar days or just trading days?
Click to expand...

Eight quarters ago, trading days.

What asset or index are you choosing? DJIA, gold, CAT, Brent, the Pound, bitcoin, beaver cheese futures, other?
Click to expand...

Any. The term "[index] rally" could be used. "Boho certified [index] rally" can be used for a licensing fee.
 
Last edited:
DJIA will be up at least .5% at some point on Monday if there's no major news over the weekend. That's rallyish by my feel system considering how much it was down today. Today's losses should be made up for within next week.
 
Boho said:
DJIA will be up at least .5% at some point on Monday if there's no major news over the weekend. That's rallyish by my feel system considering how much it was down today. Today's losses should be made up for within next week.
Click to expand...

And to paraphrase Will Rogers, "And if the DJIA isn't up at least .5% at some point on Monday, there was major news over the w/e".

Pick your story, I'm sure you can call one of them 'major'.

If you think all this prediction blabber detracts from your pitiful performance in this contest, it doesn't! :)

-ERD50
 
ERD50 said:
If you think all this prediction blabber detracts from your pitiful performance in this contest, it doesn't! :)
Click to expand...

I find it additive if I look at things through the right perspective. ;)
 
Here's a perspective. Which Market Gurus Get It Right the Most? (full report here).

Where would I fit in? Let's see...

Of the 68 gurus in the study, David Nassar came out ahead with 68.2% accuracy.

In Sengsational's study I'm at 89%:

sengsational said:
I'm doing my best to make Boho look good :cool:

This table joins tickers together so should add up to the unique tickers that each player has had active. So for each stock a player has touched, this chart puts it in the plus or minus column.

Again, ignoring open positions.

Player|Rank|Winning Trades|Losing Trades|Percent Winners
exnavynuke|
1​
|
0​
|
3​
|
0%​
|
Totoro_ERF|
2​
|
1​
|
0​
|
100%​
|
comsecga|
3​
|
4​
|
6​
|
40%​
|
up98down34|
4​
|
1​
|
0​
|
100%​
|
Fermion1|
5​
|
2​
|
2​
|
50%​
|
sengsational|
10​
|
19​
|
12​
|
61%​
|
RISP|
11​
|
5​
|
2​
|
71%​
|
lbymfreddie|
13​
|
2​
|
1​
|
67%​
|
Spudd|
15​
|
13​
|
15​
|
46%​
|
RiskyBusinessC2|
17​
|
1​
|
2​
|
33%​
|
BohoII|
18​
|
49​
|
6​
|
89%​
|
trashcan12|
25​
|
0​
|
1​
|
0%​
|
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
Boho said:
Here's a perspective. Which Market Gurus Get It Right the Most? (full report here).

Where would I fit in? Let's see...

Of the 68 gurus in the study, David Nassar came out ahead with 68.2% accuracy.

In Sengsational's study I'm at 89%:
Click to expand...


Sigh. And, pray tell, how is this relevant? Or to put it another way, how come you are behind nunnunn, instead of in 3rd place?

-ERD50
 
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