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Old 11-08-2018, 06:21 AM   #961
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Wait, in less than 10 days of playing this game I am beating Boho?! Wow!
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Old 11-08-2018, 08:19 AM   #962
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Originally Posted by sengsational View Post
..... Of course if it had been a couple of years of down markets, there might be a few more people with narrow picks that beat the index. ....
I've heard this repeated, but have never seen any evidence that stock pickers do better (relatively) in down markets than up markets. Have any links?


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Wait, in less than 10 days of playing this game I am beating Boho?! Wow!
Congrats, do you have a strategy you could share?


-ERD50
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Old 11-08-2018, 08:46 AM   #963
Confused about dryer sheets
 
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Congrats, do you have a strategy you could share?


-ERD50

Sure.



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Thanks. Not ideal, but I can definitely work with that. This is good, I hope to compare an investment strategy I am considering for the long term. I am going to try to compare the performance of the standard index fund to some momentum funds, as well as compare against REITs. Also, I am having some fun by investing in Amazon and some Chinese stocks. This will probably be the only time in my life I will ever "own" Amazon stock (too rich for me) so I thought I would have some fun. My current allocation is:


Standard Index: VOO
Momentum Indexes: MTUM, VFMO
Quarterly Dividend REITs: MFA, NYMT, CHIM
Monthly dividend REIT: AGNC
Fun stocks: AMZN, CQQQ


I don't plan on changing anything except selling AMZN after the Christmas purchasing rush is over. I will either reinvest that cash in an international index or VOO.

I will say, my REITs did not perform as good as the S&P yesterday, so my account didn't have as much gains compared to someone indexed to the S&P. That isn't how REITs work, they are in my account for the long-term dividends. Really, I think REITs will be really nice to hold onto when the market inevitably turns down in the next year or two...Though I could be completely wrong and that is why I am trying them out in this "game!"
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Old 11-08-2018, 10:15 AM   #964
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My day trade yesterday prevented me from being down for the day and I gained along with the indexers. So far today I'm up while nunnun is down.

I can't wait for the 12 month performance comparison with nunnun at the end of the year. I was ahead last I checked.
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Old 11-08-2018, 10:23 AM   #965
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Sure. ....
Wooops, sorry, I missed that (memory is going!). Sounds like a plan. Good luck!

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My day trade yesterday prevented me from being down for the day and I gained along with the indexers. So far today I'm up while nunnun is down.

I can't wait for the 12 month performance comparison with nunnun at the end of the year. I was ahead last I checked.
So now we measure by hours?

And when did this become a Trailing Twelve Month contest?

-ERD50
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Old 11-12-2018, 11:04 AM   #966
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...I'm going to wait until more third quarter reports come in before I look again. I think there will be a small window between that and Trump's China meeting when I may buy. Like the second week of November. I almost bought L3 Technologies though.
It's just about the second week of November and the market is down today because of tech and it's been down because of China tariffs. I'm buying an index fund and a manufacturing stock today.
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Old 11-12-2018, 11:47 AM   #967
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What is your stock picking method? What are you looking for before you buy shares?
Welcome to the contest! I am participating to see if I can pick stocks and time the market in such a way to 'beat boho' and as many other players as possible while still trading more or less like I do in the 'real world'. It's a 'no cost' opportunity to test personal theories and gut emotions in the market and try things that involve more risk than I would usually take.

As you can see from my trading history, I've sold most of my holdings a few weeks ago. I did this because I felt a correction was overdue and believe that there will be better buying opportunities after this market correction that I expect. Pure market timing I guess; but backed up with a notion that bull markets don't last forever and this one is long overdue for a correction.

The general theme of this thread is mostly about the futility of beating the market as currently represented by 'nunnun'. I've been feeling pretty good about myself since I'd been ahead of nunnun until recently - that's even with the gains that nunnun already had by starting months earlier in this bull market.

We'll see where it goes from here, but it's a great place to act on your 'gut' and see how it goes without costing yourself real $$.
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Old 11-13-2018, 09:46 AM   #968
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I've heard this repeated, but have never seen any evidence that stock pickers do better (relatively) in down markets than up markets. Have any links
No. Just a thought that my strategy in this game is fallen angel stocks, and if they've already fallen, maybe they'll fall less than the market in general. You could Google Joel Goldblatt and see if the spans when the fallen angel aka magic formula beat the market was in times when the market was generally down (or at least not on a path pretty much consistently up). I haven't looked.
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Old 11-16-2018, 07:39 PM   #969
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I'm buying an index fund and a manufacturing stock today.
Here's the results from the manufacturing stock AOS.

11/12/18 12:13 PM Buy at Market 4000 $45.34 $181,364.99
11/12/18 12:57 PM Sell at Limit 4000 $45.62 $182,475.01
11/12/18 3:16 PM Buy at Limit 7000 $45.36 $317,524.99
11/13/18 10:09 AM Sell at Limit 7000 $46.07 $322,485.01
11/14/18 12:07 PM Buy at Limit 7000 $45.35 $317,454.99
11/15/18 10:33 AM Sell at Limit 7000 $45.63 $319,370.01

But I'm pissed that Trump said good stuff about China today and I forgot to buy after the last sell so I didn't take advantage of what may have been the best day! I didn't even check if it sold yesterday. It would be nice to be able to automate this kind of trading. I wanted to trade this stock all month (at the right price).
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Old Yesterday, 10:20 AM   #970
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I wanted to short oil .. seems it dropped already quite a bit.


Stock picking involves being right, and acting on it. I'm much better at the first than the second myself. A well-trained monkey might actually still be better than me on both accounts.
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