Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[Boho]

I'm selling everything.

I'm attempting to do this again with limit orders a little lower than the last closing price. And again I want to re-buy quickly.

 

[Boho]

Here's a PDF of the top 10 and, when available, their last 10 trades. I don't understand Totoro's gray background or rank but it is what it is. The normal chart will be available in the morning.

 

[Boho]

January:

 

[ERD50]

Well, Boho has finally had an impressive month!

Up 20.8%, which was 12.85% higher than nunnun. Though for the run of the contest, Boho still lags nunnun by a -9.90%, and is behind nunnun in ranking, and Boho is behind 8 contestants total.

-ERD50

 

[SecondCor521]

They don't know exactly how I pick stocks and I won't say...

Now that he's doing well he won't tell us how. Such a tease.

 

[kite_rider]

I meant easysurfer has too much bonds so I won't compare myself against him. Maybe it'd good for an old-person portfolio but I'm more interested in comparisons with people who want to make money, not protect it like a retired person.

Maybe the official description should be "investment contest" or "market timing contest." I don't want to limit myself to stocks. I don't claim that's good in real life and I want the contest to be realistic.

Boho, don't be so quick to start a new contest. Why not wait until this one is finished? Personally, I've always seen this as a 'stock picking' and 'market timing' contest and I think you did it right in the first place with $1M and allowing margin. The people who have successfully FIRE'd are working with 7 figure sums and margin has it's place for investors. It's the real world!

What would be really helpful would be to keep us up to date on the 'real' results. Didn't Spudd have an extra $500,000 in his total from some sort of trading error? Can this be corrected? I think Fermion had at least two accounts, I think his winning account had the black swan biotech buyout in it if I recall correctly - but I can't recall. By the way, I think it's a 'feature' not a 'bug' of this contest that people can swing for the fences. Winning consistently over three years with that strategy isn't easy..

Anyway, keep the focus here to the end please. I hope we can correct the obvious errors and I'd like to hear peoples thoughts on stock picking and market timing. There is no shortage of these thoughts on other areas of the forums, but this place allows people to put their money where their mouth is so to speak..

 

[Boho]

What would be really helpful would be to keep us up to date on the 'real' results. Didn't Spudd have an extra $500,000 in his total from some sort of trading error? Can this be corrected?

It's worth mentioning but its affect depends on how you trade and it can't be totally corrected in every case. As long as there's nothing off with me and nunnun I personally don't care much.

$1,000,000 and margin is OK. I don't care much about that either but we should probably keep the volume limit proportional. I'm having a hard enough time liquidating big funds as it is. It doesn't seem right.

 

[ERD50]

It's worth mentioning but its affect depends on how you trade and it can't be totally corrected in every case. As long as there's nothing off with me and nunnun I personally don't care much.

$1,000,000 and margin is OK. I don't care much about that either but we should probably keep the volume limit proportional. I'm having a hard enough time liquidating big funds as it is. It doesn't seem right.

The contest is "Beat Boho", not "can Boho Beat the Market". nunnun is just one player, and a goal post for us B&H types.

-ERD50

 

[Spudd]

What would be really helpful would be to keep us up to date on the 'real' results. Didn't Spudd have an extra $500,000 in his total from some sort of trading error? Can this be corrected? I think Fermion had at least two accounts, I think his winning account had the black swan biotech buyout in it if I recall correctly - but I can't recall. By the way, I think it's a 'feature' not a 'bug' of this contest that people can swing for the fences. Winning consistently over three years with that strategy isn't easy..

I do think I got an extra 17,000 shares of CGC for free. I don't know off hand exactly how much that ended up being worth. I am also annoyed by this because although it feels good to be number one, I know I probably wouldn't be if it weren't for the bug.

(Btw, I'm a girl)

 

[Boho]

I am also annoyed by this because although it feels good to be number one, I know I probably wouldn't be if it weren't for the bug.

Join the club. That was me in the last contest. This is why I was considering starting the next contest before this ends.

 

[kite_rider]

I do think I got an extra 17,000 shares of CGC for free. I don't know off hand exactly how much that ended up being worth. I am also annoyed by this because although it feels good to be number one, I know I probably wouldn't be if it weren't for the bug.

(Btw, I'm a girl)

Well, it looks like you liquidated that position for approx. $1.4M (34,000 shares) so if you got half of that for free then your total is approx $700K overstated. It would knock you down a few notches in the standings, but still very respectable performance regardless! By the way, it was your entry into CGC that got me interested it and I'm happy I followed your lead. This is exactly what I was looking for when I signed up for this game.

Sorry for the 'his' that should have been a 'her'. It's hard when everyone goes by handles rather than real names. So also sorry to everyone else too where this arbitrary assignment went wrong. For what it's worth, I find women to be nicer and more forgiving than then men for this type of oversight; thank you for that.

 

[Boho]

I finally reached $1,100,000. I have -$84,935.40 cash which I think is OK for this particular State of the Union eve. It reflects my cautious optimism over the SOTU. I want to be even more fully invested for trade deals but I'm betting the market will go down pre-deal before it goes up post-deal (or good deal news). I'll buy on that dip.

 

[braumeister]

But what are we to make of the fact that you have totally abandoned your "method" and are now 100% invested in index ETFs?

 

[Boho]

But what are we to make of the fact that you have totally abandoned your "method" and are now 100% invested in index ETFs?

It's still buy and sell day trading, but I also day traded ILMN on 1/23. I'm not going to ignore which way the market in general is going. I'm more than a stock picker.

 

[ransil]

something weird going on with the market watch game, if you look at the pending orders for player ED WE MRMD is not executing, I keep adding to the orders.


the game needs stop limit enabled too.

 

[Boho]

something weird going on with the market watch game, if you look at the pending orders for player ED WE MRMD is not executing, I keep adding to the orders.


the game needs stop limit enabled too.

I see your buy of 1000 went through last month. If additional orders didn't then there's a problem. I don't think I'll even start another game after the current Investopedia one. Marketwatch gave me the worst first impression of any of them.

 

[Boho]

I gave myself the quality of life badge for this contest. For a single person in NY City, 6.6% per year on $1,000,000 is middle class. I used this calculator.

Based on your household income and the number of people in your household, you are in the middle income tier, along with 48% of adults in New York-Newark-Jersey City.

I was expecting to be higher if I were in West Virginia but 52% share my middle class status there somehow.

 

[Boho]

I'm about done with my optimism about the market. I'm selling what I have on margin. I just want to be fully invested and I think I'll concentrate on buying and selling individual stocks, but this is subject to change.

 

[ERD50]

I'm about done with my optimism about the market. I'm selling what I have on margin. I just want to be fully invested and I think I'll concentrate on buying and selling individual stocks, but this is subject to change.

Well, it looks like the market was up ~ 5% in the time you were on margin, so that should have helped you some.

We will see in a few days if someone will post an EOM update.

-ERD50

 

[kite_rider]

I'm about done with my optimism about the market. I'm selling what I have on margin. I just want to be fully invested and I think I'll concentrate on buying and selling individual stocks, but this is subject to change.

I hear ya Boho. I'm also thinking this may be a good time to get a bit more conservative with my portfolio. Looks like you've been making a comeback in recent months.

My primary goal is to stay ahead of Nunnun. But I'll take some risks to keep my lead above you too. Still optimistically hoping I may be able to move up a rung or two on the ladder...

 

[natetheb]

I have stopped caring about this competition, particularly since I have nearly 20% of my capital locked into funds that are not updating nor can I sell them....

 

[Boho]

My sell price was reached for two funds yesterday but they didn't sell. Would have been good timing too. In my case I'm assuming Investopedia didn't check the price often enough but they're probably sellable. I'll try again but for now I ended the sell order.

 

[Boho]

I have stopped caring about this competition, particularly since I have nearly 20% of my capital locked into funds that are not updating nor can I sell them....

I bet if you buy another couple of shares of those funds it will wake them up and you may be able to sell and see updates again.

 

[ERD50]

My sell price was reached for two funds yesterday but they didn't sell. Would have been good timing too. In my case I'm assuming Investopedia didn't check the price often enough but they're probably sellable. I'll try again but for now I ended the sell order.

Funds, or ETFs?

If you put in a sell order for a fund, it sells after the close, at the closing price. So a market order may not show up until the next day. A limit order may not have been hit at the close.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Funds, or ETFs?

If you put in a sell order for a fund, it sells after the close, at the closing price. So a market order may not show up until the next day. A limit order may not have been hit at the close.

-ERD50

The ETFs IVV and SPY. Here are the cancelled orders. No big deal since the market is bouncing back already.