Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[Boho]

Looks like Boho might have been partially "exited"? Awfully close, maybe the SPY order was not filled, and so far VOO has come close to his Buy-To-Cover, but no cigar?

SPY day range so far: 290.90 - 294.12

VOO day range so far: 267.16 - 270.06



-ERD50

I checked a couple of times today. Close but my trades didn't execute yet.

 

[Boho]

My shorts were covered.

8/5/2019 9:57 AM Cover Stock: Cover at Limit VOO 2000 target: $267.00 Price: $264.35 Cash value: $528,704.99 Acct Value: $1,209,885.01
8/5/2019 9:57 AM Cover Stock: Cover at Limit SPY 2000 Target: $291.00 Price: $287.87 Cash value: $575,744.99 Acct Value: $1,209,890.00

 

[pb4uski]

Why do people say don't time the market when buying yet they think I should have an exit plan. I bought when the market was high expecting it to go lower. When it's lower, that's my exit.

Don't you mean IF and WHEN it is lower? I might have turned out that it doesn't ever get lower than when you put the short on.

P.S. I realize that it worked out for you this time.

 

[Boho]

According to my calculations, which someone will have to check, nunnun would have had about $1,201,979. That's assuming he had $1,000,000 worth of SPY to start with, with SPY now being at $283.03.My account value is currently $1,209,880.02. I'd buy what nunnun has now, retire, and claim victory over the S&P if I was certain I'm correct.

 

[SecondCor521]

According to my calculations, which someone will have to check, nunnun would have had about $1,201,979. That's assuming he had $1,000,000 worth of SPY to start with, with SPY now being at $283.03.

Your calculations would ignore the two plus years of dividends paid out to SPY, which ballpark would be about another 4% for nunnun.

Looking back at post #12 of this thread, nunnun was actually in VTI, not SPY. VTI has outperformed SPY by about 3% since this contest began: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY...jdG9yIjowLjQ1LCJjaGFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCJ9fX19. VTI has a similar dividend yield to SPY.

So you're still behind nunnun by about 7% I think.

 

[pb4uski]

According to my calculations, which someone will have to check, nunnun would have had about $1,201,979. That's assuming he had $1,000,000 worth of SPY to start with, with SPY now being at $283.03.My account value is currently $1,209,880.02. I'd buy what nunnun has now, retire, and claim victory over the S&P if I was certain I'm correct.

$1m in VTSAX or VFINX at 3/29/2017 would be worth $1,289,499 and $1,297,890, respectively at 8/4/09 with dividends reinvested.... and perhaps down a little less than 3% today... so about $1,250,814 and $1,258,953, respectively.

 

[Boho]

I'm shorting SPY again.

edit: VOO too

Short Stock: Short at Market SPY 2000 $287.02 $4.99 Total value: $574,035.01 Account Value: $1,213,965.04

Short Stock: Short at Market VOO 2000 $265.17 $4.99 Total value: $530,331.01 Account Value: $1,210,480.05

 

[Boho]

IVV too:

Short Stock: Short at Limit IVV 2000 $292.40 $292.59 $4.99 Total value: $585,165.01 Account Value: $1,202,231.06

I also want to figure out how to know, in advance, when China is coming out with new reports like they did today. I guess that's currently more important than European news.

 

[karluk]

Boho, I see that you are posting as though the Investopedia summary page is accurate, and ignoring interest charges against your account. In order to keep followers of this thread informed of your actual performance, could you please post the latest interest charges/credits?

I believe the latest information you provided was the June, 1, 2019 interest charge of -$839.16. If I added things up correctly, your total interest charge since the start of the game is -$9,129.37.

I don't think you've updated this thread with either the July or August interest charge/credit. Could you provide those numbers, please? You were sitting in cash for most of June, so the July 1 interest could easily be a credit. I don't know how Investopedia charges fees while you shorted the market, so I'm not sure what to expect from the August 1 interest.

 

[Boho]

Boho, I see that you are posting as though the Investopedia summary page is accurate, and ignoring interest charges against your account. In order to keep followers of this thread informed of your actual performance, could you please post the latest interest charges/credits?

Here are the last three entries:

8/1/2019 6:00 PM Interest $1,521.75 $1,174,831.76
7/1/2019 6:00 PM Interest $903.25 $1,190,933.26
6/1/2019 6:00 PM Interest ($839.16) $1,166,567.31

Investopedia allegedly fixed some things so maybe interest is reflected in account values now. I didn't look into that.

 

[ERD50]

I'm shorting SPY again.

edit: VOO too

Short Stock: Short at Market SPY 2000 $287.02 $4.99 Total value: $574,035.01 Account Value: $1,213,965.04

Short Stock: Short at Market VOO 2000 $265.17 $4.99 Total value: $530,331.01 Account Value: $1,210,480.05

I'll analyze this later, but I was on vacation the past week, mostly without internet access, other times by choice.

But at a glance as I catch up with many things, your short trade worked out for you, which I predict is the the worst outcome for you. This just builds confidence that you can win, but it is still a crap-shoot. Just like buying a winning lottery ticket doesn't make for a sound strategy, either does this 'win'.

I'll try to post more later.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Does that include dividends for nunnun?

Yes, I used the "adjusted Price" on yahoo finance, for the March 29, 2017 start price. It also matched close to using stockcharts.com, which is total return (but a little hard to get to exact start-end dates).

-ERD50

So I used Yahoo finance. Lets see if I could get this right. If an indexer bought SPY at the start of the contest:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY...82400&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d

March 29, 2017 SPY adjusted closing price: 225.63
1,000,000 / 225.63 = 4,432 shares

Aug 09, 2019 SPY adjusted closing price: 291.62

291.62 x 4,432 = 1,292,459.84

adjusted for 8/12/2019, 2:55 PM EDT (SPY down 1.45%):
1,292,459.84 - 1.45% = 1,273,719.17

And I currently have $1,217,821.08, so I'm $55,898.09 behind the theoretical indexer which is equal to 4.32% according to This. That's for over two years so it's fairly close.

 

[ERD50]

Sounds right.

Technically, nunnun said he was 50% VOO and 50% VTI, but that should be very close to SPY.

So I assume you got your SPY 780 Buy Limit at $282.50,

but not your

VOO -Qty: 1600 Buy Limit at $255.50 ?

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Sounds right.

Technically, nunnun said he was 50% VOO and 50% VTI, but that should be very close to SPY.

So I assume you got your SPY 780 Buy Limit at $282.50,

but not your

VOO -Qty: 1600 Buy Limit at $255.50 ?

-ERD50

[edit] I forgot about some of those...I'll post my trade history...

 

[Boho]

Recent trade history:

 

[ERD50]

OK, so if I read it right, in between you got in/out of VOO and VTI for ~ $1/share profit each time. And you are short 2000 SPY @ $287.02 (now at $291.62)?


Sometimes one can have a nice run playing the short term dips and peaks, but the law of averages generally catches up. But it is particularly dangerous as a short.

Got a BTC target on SPY? An exit point if it stays up for a week, month, or ?

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Got a BTC target on SPY? An exit point if it stays up for a week, month, or ?

-ERD50

Cover Limit at $286.00, Current Price: $288.07

 

[SecondCor521]

So I used Yahoo finance. Lets see if I could get this right. If an indexer bought SPY at the start of the contest:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY...82400&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d

March 29, 2017 SPY adjusted closing price: 225.63
1,000,000 / 225.63 = 4,432 shares

Aug 09, 2019 SPY adjusted closing price: 291.62

291.62 x 4,432 = 1,292,459.84

adjusted for 8/12/2019, 2:55 PM EDT (SPY down 1.45%):
1,292,459.84 - 1.45% = 1,273,719.17

And I currently have $1,217,821.08, so I'm $55,898.09 behind the theoretical indexer which is equal to 4.32% according to This. That's for over two years so it's fairly close.

Seems like you're forgetting (again) to account for the SPY dividends, which I'm not 100% sure but I think adds another 4% or so to nunnun's returns, so you're down more like 8% or so.

SPY dividend history: https://www.dividend.com/dividend-s...ther/spy-spdr-sandp-500/#payout-history-table

It also doesn't account for taxes that probably would be higher in your case than nunnun's if we were modeling a taxable account.

~$80,000 behind after lots (hundreds?) of trades, watching the market, watching the news, developing multiple strategies and deciding when to change between them. Versus probably five minutes of effort and perhaps a lot of napping. I know which I would choose.

 

[ERD50]

Seems like you're forgetting (again) to account for the SPY dividends, which I'm not 100% sure but I think adds another 4% or so to nunnun's returns, so you're down more like 8% or so. ...

No, the "adjusted price" on yahoo accounts for this. If you look, you'll see that the recent "closing price" matches the "Adjusted Price", and as each div/distribution occurs, the "Adjusted Price" is reduced by that amount. So when you go back, and calculate gain from Current/Adjusted, you get the gain with dividends/distributions.

But he is still doing poorly, and once again just seems to be hoping for a drop, with no exit strategy if we don't see that dip.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

I'd meet these qualifications for Fidelity's active trader services:

Trades: 120+ stock, bond, or option trades in a 12-month period
Portfolio Value: $25,000 or greater across your Fidelity accounts

So I'd get "competitive commissions, margin rates, and offers."

 

[Boho]

Got a BTC target on SPY? An exit point if it stays up for a week, month, or ?

-ERD50

I just placed a market order to cover SPY. I have no other shorts.

 

[ERD50]

I just placed a market order to cover SPY. I have no other shorts.

So what price did you cover at, looks like maybe near $292, for about a $10,000 loss on the trade? I'm guessing that wipes out (and more) any gains from your other short attempts?

I'd meet these qualifications for Fidelity's active trader services:

So I'd get "competitive commissions, margin rates, and offers."

More trades might just mean more losses, faster.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

So what price did you cover at, looks like maybe near $292, for about a $10,000 loss on the trade?

$293.01, so I lost about $12,000. I shorted about 5 things in the last several months. I may have come out about even but I didn't add it up. I don't know whether the cash I had during that time hurt or helped.

Also, I bought SPY and IVV.

8/13/2019 10:24 AM Stock: Buy at Limit IVV 2000 $294.16 $588,324.99 Acct value: $1,208,656.11
8/13/2019 10:24 AM Stock: Buy at Limit SPY 2000 $292.43 $584,864.99 Acct value: $1,208,661.10
8/13/2019 10:19 AM Cover Stock: Cover at Market SPY 2000 $293.01 $586,024.99 Acct value: $1,208,666.09

 

[SecondCor521]

No, the "adjusted price" on yahoo accounts for this. If you look, you'll see that the recent "closing price" matches the "Adjusted Price", and as each div/distribution occurs, the "Adjusted Price" is reduced by that amount. So when you go back, and calculate gain from Current/Adjusted, you get the gain with dividends/distributions.

But he is still doing poorly, and once again just seems to be hoping for a drop, with no exit strategy if we don't see that dip.

-ERD50

Ah well. So only down $40,000 for all his effort.

There still remain the issues of taxes, trading costs, and margin interest (although the latter two are accounted for in the game, I think).

 

[SecondCor521]

I'd meet these qualifications for Fidelity's active trader services:

So I'd get "competitive commissions, margin rates, and offers."

Would it be alright with you if we used your username as a verb to mean "identifying alternative metrics to win by when the original relevant one isn't going so well"?