Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[Boho]

I checked and I think we may have already had a 7% pullback this year. I don't know why it seems like it kept going up.

 

[Boho]

...Fitch revised its outlook on the planemaker to "negative' from "stable"

I'm still misreading this "to...from" construction on my first read. I guess it's used over "from...to" so it's active voice, or so you get the most important data first, but in non-finance writing I think it's usually "from...to." It's annoying.

 

[SecondCor521]

I'm still misreading this "to...from" construction on my first read. I guess it's used over "from...to" so it's active voice, or so you get the most important data first, but in non-finance writing I think it's usually "from...to." It's annoying.

Maybe, but it's the typical phrasing for market upgrades and downgrades. See the transcript below for Nightly Business Report (do a text search for "Upgrades and Downgrades" then read the paragraphs which follow):

Transcript: Nightly Business Report – June 17, 2019 | Nightly Business Report

 

[Boho]

As long as I'm complaining, CNN just introduced me to the concept of "only internationally."

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/23/business/coca-cola-earnings/index.html

...Coca-Cola with Coffee and a Coca-Cola energy drink (those two are available only internationally, for now).

 

[ERD50]

As long as I'm complaining, CNN just introduced me to the concept of "only internationally."

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/23/business/coca-cola-earnings/index.html

Good one for the 'pet peeve' thread!

Hmmm, so what does that really mean? Would I be correct to say that, whatever country you go to, you would have to go to another country to buy it? Because it must not be available intra-nationally? But then as soon as you get to that country.... Oh, boy, starts to sound like some of those string theory-parallel universe ideas! My head is spinning!

-ERD50

 

[SecondCor521]

Now:

VOO $274.32
SPY $298.80



Any new thoughts, Boho?

Now:

VOO $276.43
SPY $301.05

 

[ERD50]

Now:

VOO $276.43
SPY $301.05

Wow. If he is still short, that puts another 6% between him and our buy&hold proxy.

Time for another shift in strategy?

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Wow. If he is still short, that puts another 6% between him and our buy&hold proxy.

Time for another shift in strategy?

-ERD50

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/23/us-china-expected-to-hold-in-person-trade-talks-next-week.html

US, China in-person trade talks expected next week; White House eyeing longer-term timeline for deal

...which could take roughly six months to reach.

Six months is a lot of earnings reports away.

 

[ERD50]

...


Six months is a lot of earnings reports away.

And maybe a couple more dividend payments that you miss being short, compared to the B&H investor.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

After the first day of talks when Trump says something good I may short more if the market doesn't drop much before then.

 

[ERD50]

After the first day of talks when Trump says something good I may short more if the market doesn't drop much before then.

Can you short any more?

6/27/2019 11:35 AM Short at Market VOO 2000 $267.65 $535,295.01
6/27/2019 11:34 AM Short at Market SPY 2000 $291.48 $582,955.01

Or are you thinking you can cover before then? Or can you short on margin? I suppose at this point in the contest, might as well go for broke, with a chance of a drop to carry you through.

But this is really looking like gambling, not investing.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Can you short any more?



Or are you thinking you can cover before then? Or can you short on margin? I suppose at this point in the contest, might as well go for broke, with a chance of a drop to carry you through.

But this is really looking like gambling, not investing.

-ERD50

Account Value (USD) $1,155,550.00
Buying Power$576,160.00
Cash $2,314,330.00
Annual Return 6.41 %

I would have used margin if I could but I think I'll just stick with what I have. The speculation already is that there will be no trade deal from the talks in China. Maybe some deal in subsequent talks in the US. So, at least 6 more months of earnings affected by tariffs plus a possible impeachment.

 

[Boho]

Comsecga gained $1,180,111 yesterday from a "split adjustment" buy and sell of BABA (Alibaba).

comsecga $3,282,243.01 +$1180111.00 +228.22%

 

[ERD50]

Comsecga gained $1,180,111 yesterday from a "split adjustment" buy and sell of BABA (Alibaba).

comsecga $3,282,243.01 +$1180111.00 +228.22%

Took me a while to figure out what a "Comsecga" was - couldn't find a stock under that name. Oh, one of the contestants, but he has not posted in over 2 years.

I'm guessing that adjustment will be adjusted. I've seen stock splits misreported for some time after the split. According to yahoo, BABA is up slightly since you posted account values ( ~ 175/169), so I don't see how he could be up that much, unless they are doing the split wrong.

Do the number of shares of BABA times posted stock price make sense?

edit/add: I see BABA was an 8:1 split, so let me guess - he had ~ $150,000 in BABA a while back? That would account for ~ $1,200,000 in 'gains'.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

 

[Boho]

July:

 

[ERD50]

JULY 2019: So again, I used the VOO and VTI as the proxy for our Buy and Hold benchmark. Dividends need to be accounted for, and I got:


2019 JULY

............ Balance... Month % .... Total %
Boho: ... $1,173,310 ... -1.41% ... 17.33%
B&H: .... $1,315,332 ... +1.44% ... 31.53%


So as should be expected, with Boho taking a short position on the market, their returns are very nearly an inverse of each other. The market gain of ~ +1.44% worked against Boho, with a - 1.41%.


All his work and prestidigitation took Boho's cost from $106,676 last month, further in the hole to $142,022. That's about [-]$3,900[/-] -$5,000 per month since the contest began. If he spends 10 hours a week on research, he's 'earned' a negative $127 per hour for his efforts.

His short position is ~ 2% below the JULY EOM close, and market is up another ~ 0.7% as I type.

Exit plan? Going short is a scary thing, especially w/o a hedge (puts?).

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Exit plan? Going short is a scary thing, especially w/o a hedge (puts?).

Why do people say don't time the market when buying yet they think I should have an exit plan. I bought when the market was high expecting it to go lower. When it's lower, that's my exit.

 

[Boho]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/01/tru...on-of-chinese-goods-starting-september-1.html

Trump says US will impose 10% tariffs on another $300 billion of Chinese goods starting Sept.1

 

[ERD50]

Why do people say don't time the market when buying yet they think I should have an exit plan. I bought when the market was high expecting it to go lower. When it's lower, that's my exit.

Because the people who give that advice don't short the market!

Are you aware that the market sometimes never goes lower than where it is? In fact, that's common. For all the brain power you are applying to this, have you actually looked at historic charts of the market?

But the market routinely sets new highs. That's why if someone like me were to go short, it would be done with a small % and on an individual holding, not 'the market'. And if it were a sizeable %, I would place a hedge.

Remember the old saying "The market may remain irrational longer than you may remain solvent".

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/01/tru...on-of-chinese-goods-starting-september-1.html

Trump says US will impose 10% tariffs on another $300 billion of Chinese goods starting Sept.1

And the market has reacted - with a "whopping" 0.7% decline. Not enough to make your short whole.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

And the market has reacted - with a "whopping" 0.7% decline. Not enough to make your short whole.

-ERD50

Oh, good. So we don't have to worry about a trade deal any more because the market is done being affected by it.

 

[ERD50]

Oh, good. So we don't have to worry about a trade deal any more because the market is done being affected by it.

Who was worried?


-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Who was worried?


-ERD50

The worry comes in trickles whenever there's another bad quarter. It was going to get worse even without another tariff increase. Maybe things are bad enough now that investors won't even wait for more bad news before selling.

 

[ERD50]

Looks like Boho might have been partially "exited"? Awfully close, maybe the SPY order was not filled, and so far VOO has come close to his Buy-To-Cover, but no cigar?

SPY day range so far: 290.90 - 294.12

VOO day range so far: 267.16 - 270.06

Boho 04JULY2019...

My open orders are:

VOO - VANGUARD S&P 500 ETF Qty: 1600 Buy Limit at $255.50 Current Price: $274.32
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST Qty: 780 Buy Limit at $282.50 Current Price: $298.80

SPY - SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST Qty: 2000 Cover Limit at $291.00 Current Price: $298.80
VOO - VANGUARD S&P 500 ETF Qty: 2000 Cover Limit at $267.00 Current Price: $274.32

-ERD50