Tariff relief rally

Thanks for the post. Busy weekend, and I hadn't seen the news.

S&P 500 futures up 1.44% as I type this. Would have expected even more, but I guess something along these lines was expected (priced in).

Since I'm sitting on some Apple 180 Feb 2019 calls (bought 11/23 @ $8.45), I'm hoping for a pop here. (Originally bought thinking that Apple's Feb earnings results will be better than expected given how awful the news flow has been on it since it peaked at $132.) However, if we get a decent lift off of the trade news, I am likely to sell them and take the 2018 profit and go on to something else (especially since Apple is my #1 individual holding).

ETA: Dow Jones futures up 440 points (1.7%) as of 7:10 PM Eastern.
 
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Would be nice to have that year end rally to add a little to next years' withdrawal.
 
Plenty of time for the December/ January run up. You know its coming. Santa on his way. Tis bonus season.
 
The market was expecting some type of deal. (I expected nothing, so I'm now less bearish on the market in the short term.) My guess is that a 3 month delay is pretty much what the market expect, but there is still some relief it happened.
 
From what I read, they really didn't agree to do anything other than postpone resolving their differences for a while. This, from CNN:

"The statements issued by the two sides, while each positive, illuminated how far apart Washington and Beijing remain despite each country's leader boasting about their strong personal relationship.
The starkest difference was the omission in China's statement of any agreed upon timetable for negotiations.
Also absent was specific mention of what markets China would be inclined to open up -- like agriculture, energy and industrial US products -- three sectors touted by White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders in her brief statement on Saturday.
Trump repeatedly referred to agriculture -- a flag, perhaps, to US soybean farmers who have been the first to feel pain from Chinese retaliation. "China will be buying massive amounts of product from us, including agricultural, from our farmers -- tremendous amount of agricultural and other products," Trump said.
"Going down the line, you can see what was left ambiguous," said Allen, who viewed the absence of a joint statement as yet another signal of an unclear understanding from both sides.
China's statement also didn't mention Xi's willingness to consider approving a $44 billion deal for Qualcomm Inc. to purchase NXP Semiconductors NV, if the deal was put before him again -- a gesture the White House lauded as an achievement over dinner talks. In July, Qualcomm scrapped the proposed deal for its rival chip maker after waiting nearly two years for approval from Chinese regulators as tensions escalated between the two countries."
 
Well, it delays the Jan. 1st 25% tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods and threatened tariffs on an additional $267B for at least 3 months - that's something. I wonder why the CNN article does not mention that?
 
No one cares about CNN. I don't have cable TV since 1986.
 
USGrant1962 said:
Well, it delays the Jan. 1st 25% tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods and threatened tariffs on an additional $267B for at least 3 months - that's something. I wonder why the CNN article does not mention that?
Click to expand...

Right, it just delays things, does not really resolve anything. Kicking the can down the road, basically. I'm sure the markets will react positively to that for a little while, but it's certainly no landmark agreement.

The gist of this has been reported by many news outlets, not just CNN. This is from CNBC:

"This is all constructive news for markets, however the overarching concerns in the US-China relationship remain, and thus should imply caution for markets past the short-term,” wrote Sacha Tihanyi, deputy head of emerging markets for TD Securities, in a note. Some of the bigger, structural “issues are not ones that we believe can be easily tackled in a 90-day period.”
 
^ wouldn't believe a word they say, nicely said. LOL
 
Kickin the can down the road. See a lot of that lately. I still believe after that awesome rally last week, we have about 2-3% more to climb before year end.


What I don't get is why did the Government decide to close? 17.5 more trading days to go. I've seen a lot happen in 17 days in the markets but usually not too much action around the holidays. Not in the past few years at least.
 
kgtest said:
What I don't get is why did the Government decide to close?
Click to expand...

As far as I can tell of a quick scan of my news sources, the government appears to be open currently.

I know there is a budget deadline and the President has threatened to close the federal government if he doesn't get funding for the border wall, so maybe that is what you're referring to. But I don't believe that has actually happened yet.
 
kgtest said:
Kickin the can down the road. See a lot of that lately. I still believe after that awesome rally last week, we have about 2-3% more to climb before year end.


What I don't get is why did the Government decide to close? 17.5 more trading days to go. I've seen a lot happen in 17 days in the markets but usually not too much action around the holidays. Not in the past few years at least.
Click to expand...

Are you talking about the markets being closed on Wednesday for Bush 41?
 
ExFlyBoy5 said:
Are you talking about the markets being closed on Wednesday for Bush 41?
Click to expand...
Yeah. I think they said the last time we mourned a presidents passing was 2006 and I cant recall the markets closing. I could google I suppose.
 
kgtest said:
Yeah. I think they said the last time we mourned a presidents passing was 2006 and I cant recall the markets closing. I could google I suppose.
Click to expand...

I was curious when I heard about it earlier, so I already Googled it and can save you the trouble. :)

https://www.investors.com/news/nyse-nasdaq-stock-markets-will-close-president-george-h-w-bush/

"Traditionally, the NYSE and Nasdaq stock markets close for the funeral of a former president. The last such U.S. stock market closure was Jan. 2, 2007, for the funeral of former president Gerald Ford. Previous stock market closures were in 2004 for Ronald Reagan and 1994 for Richard Nixon."
 
cathy63 said:
I was curious when I heard about it earlier, so I already Googled it and can save you the trouble. :)

https://www.investors.com/news/nyse-nasdaq-stock-markets-will-close-president-george-h-w-bush/

"Traditionally, the NYSE and Nasdaq stock markets close for the funeral of a former president. The last such U.S. stock market closure was Jan. 2, 2007, for the funeral of former president Gerald Ford. Previous stock market closures were in 2004 for Ronald Reagan and 1994 for Richard Nixon."
Click to expand...


Aha! Thanks!
 
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