Thoughts on TESLA

[Ronstar]

The larger fuel stations on the interstates will add EV charging....

My friends who still work in Big Oil here in our neighborhood and area have mentioned at morning coffee meetups abut building out service stations to accommodate EV's and more lounge amenities.

I can see the larger stations adding EV charging. But the smaller stations and those in urban areas don’t have the room to park cars for 30-60 minutes while they recharge. These stations barely have enough room now for gas and mini mart customers.

 

[aja8888]

I can see the larger stations adding EV charging. But the smaller stations and those in urban areas don’t have the room to park cars for 30-60 minutes while they recharge. These stations barely have enough room now for gas and mini mart customers.

True, and a lot of the new gas stations being built around here, as an example, (Grand Parkway Expansion) appear to have 8+ islands of 4 pumps each with lots of parking and open space.

 

[bobandsherry]

Tesla is branching out their charging stations, my rather sleepy area south of Tampa just had Tesla super charging station put in, unused area of parking lot. I have not seen many Tesla's in the area.

 

[Ronstar]

Tesla is now mainstream - the villain in “Cold Pursuit”, the recent Liam Neeson movie drives a red Model X. Looks like it handles snow covered Colorado roads with tire chains quite well.

 

[bobandsherry]

As several had assumed, appears that delivery/demand has slowed in US.

Tesla's delivery team said to be gutted in recent job cuts

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/09/teslas-model-3-worries-delivery-employees-said-to-be-cut.html

The cuts could fuel investor worries that demand for the Model 3 in the United States has tailed off after a large tax break for consumers expired last year and the car remains too expensive for most consumers.

"There are not enough deliveries," one of the former employees told Reuters. "You don't need a team because there are not that many cars coming through."

 

[ERD50]

As several had assumed, appears that delivery/demand has slowed in US.

Tesla's delivery team said to be gutted in recent job cuts

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/09/teslas-model-3-worries-delivery-employees-said-to-be-cut.html

I think you have to be careful about the US "delivery" headlines we've been seeing. Deliveries in the US could be expected to be down, as Tesla just started shipping to the EU. So the EU would have pent up demand for the higher priced models, so it only makes sense for Tesla to prioritize those.

That said... they were hitting 5,000/week on M3 months ago, so by now that should be routine, and they should be able to produce significantly more. But they aren't.

That's a sign that US demand has dropped. Plus, two US price reductions this year? Wait a minute, if Tesla is production constrained to feed the EU, then why the heck would they drop prices now in the US? That sounds like a scary, deep red flag.

Can the fans here come up with a positive spin (that passes the smell test)?

Maybe Musk is seeing the Osborne Effect? "Musk said last month his "rough guess" was that Tesla would begin building the $35,000 Model 3 in mid-2019."

So maybe a whole lot of potential M3 customers decided to wait for the $35,000 model rather than spend $42,900 now? And maybe they figure if they miss the $3500 tax credit in the first half, and only get the 2nd half $1750 tax credit, Tesla will drop the price anyhow?

-ERD50

 

[samclem]

That's a sign that US demand has dropped. Plus, two US price reductions this year? Wait a minute, if Tesla is production constrained to feed the EU, then why the heck would they drop prices now in the US? That sounds like a scary, deep red flag.

Can the fans here come up with a positive spin (that passes the smell test)?

I've got it: Market share. Elon wants to preempt any possible new competitors in the "someday-gonna-be-lucrative" US EV market. So, he is playing the long game and keeping EV prices depressed to assure no one else starts making them. Finally, when "conditions are right" and big EV taxpayer subsidies resume, he'll be in a prime spot (again) to take advantage of them. If bondholders and shareholders will just be patient through some periods of low/negative returns, he'll bring them a lavish payout.

That's the best I can do.

Separate subject: Given the way the recent RIFs were handled, the next time Tesla needs to ramp up, they may find it more challenging to find good help.

 

[Chuckanut]

Tesla is now mainstream - the villain in “Cold Pursuit”, the recent Liam Neeson movie drives a red Model X. .[/QUOTE

This is a bad sign. If Tesla EVs were really as wonderful as people claim the good buys would be driving a Tesla and the bad guys a diesel VW or maybe a Prius. Obviously, Tesla is doomed if the bad guys are driving them in the movies.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Electric bill arrived: 37.81. I don't believe I used a supercharger in the last 30 days, all home charging. Zero money spent on gas since July.

 

[bobandsherry]

Electric bill arrived: 37.81. I don't believe I used a supercharger in the last 30 days, all home charging. Zero money spent on gas since July.

Don't know where you live, but our basic monthly charge service charge is about half of that. My bill runs about $80 on a slow month, but all electric, no gas. So no idea how you use so little electricity in a month and include charging your EV. You must share how you use so little energy for your house and where.

 

[Ronstar]

^ Liam Neeson is the Irish actor who always plays some dude who is out to revenge the kidnap/murder/ etc of his family members.

You’re right though - it would be better for Tesla if they were the vehicle of choice for the good guys. Kind of cool though seeing that Model X back door open vertically when the villain got out.

 

[Chuckanut]

^ Liam Neeson is the Irish actor who always plays some dude who is out to revenge the kidnap/murder/ etc of his family members.

You’re right though - it would be better for Tesla if they were the vehicle of choice for the good guys. Kind of cool though seeing that Model X back door open vertically when the villain got out.

Ok, now I remember. He does seem to play a lot of those parts.

I wonder if the auto companies have to pay more to have the good guys drive their car in a movie?

 

[NW-Bound]

Ok, now I remember. He does seem to play a lot of those parts.

I wonder if the auto companies have to pay more to have the good guys drive their car in a movie?

There's nothing wrong with bad guys driving the car. Bad guys are not stupid, know performance cars, and can afford the best in order to get away fast. No?

Not just something as large and memorable as a car, but many consumer products or brand names are prominently shown in movies for a price. It's called "product placement".

The practice started a long time ago. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Product_placement.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Don't know where you live, but our basic monthly charge service charge is about half of that. My bill runs about $80 on a slow month, but all electric, no gas. So no idea how you use so little electricity in a month and include charging your EV. You must share how you use so little energy for your house and where.

I'm in Southern California. Natural gas bill runs around $9-11.

2 people, 2800sf home, I just don't use much juice.

Probably drove about 500 miles in that period.

My lowest electric bill for 2018 was $6.16, that was before I started charging at home.

If I was smarter I would post a picture of my bill. I'm just a tightwad, and can usually find a way to pay less for things. Been this was all my life.

About 20 years ago, I had a guy from the city tell me" We changed your water meter twice, we thought it was broken". Bill was $2.00 for that 60 day period.

 

[ERD50]

I'm in Southern California. Natural gas bill runs around $9-11.

2 people, 2800sf home, I just don't use much juice.

Probably drove about 500 miles in that period.

My lowest electric bill for 2018 was $6.16, that was before I started charging at home.

If I was smarter I would post a picture of my bill. I'm just a tightwad, and can usually find a way to pay less for things. Been this was all my life.

About 20 years ago, I had a guy from the city tell me" We changed your water meter twice, we thought it was broken". Bill was $2.00 for that 60 day period.

What is it you are trying to say? It really is not clear.

Are you trying to tell us it is cheaper to run a car on home-charging (w/o any road tax added), than to buy gasoline? OK, I don't think anyone denies that.

But if you intend to be persuasive, you need relevant numbers. How much of that bill is for the 500 miles? What do you pay per kWh? There is not much substance to your post without that. But I could guess...

$37.81 -$ 6.16, round down to $30 for 500 miles. And that is more than generous, because most bills include a fixed monthly charge, so the inrease would be on a smaller base consumption number. At an estimated 3 miles /kWh that gets you to around $0.20/kWh - about right? With a 30 mpg car that doesn't cost $44,000, and national average gas price of $2.28 (https://gasprices.aaa.com/ ), it would cost $38. Not really such a difference, and we support the roads you drive on because we pay road taxes. That won't last if EVs take off as some predict. To summarize:


Tesla.....: $30 for 500 miles
30 mpg car: $38 for 500 miles

-ERD50

 

[Ronstar]

^Ev / hybrid car owners in 20 states do pay a small road tax now.
http://www.ncsl.org/research/energy/new-fees-on-hybrid-and-electric-vehicles.aspx#statebill
But these taxes are lower than those paid as part of motor fuel tax. Georgia has the highest current EV tax at $200 per year. Average EV tax paid by the 20 states is around $110 per year.

Say a Pennsylvania driver drives 10000 miles a year. At 25 mpg and $0.58/ gal gas tax, the motor fuel tax would be $232 per year. I know - I’m using Pa the highest gas tax in the US. But some people drive more than 10k miles per year and some do not get 25 mpg. Let’s just say that the average gas car owner pays about $200 per year in taxes.

Even though the gov’t wants clean energy, I suspect that most states will put EV taxes in place that will come close to the equivalent $ received by motor fuel tax. And soon.

 

[bobandsherry]

I'm in Southern California. Natural gas bill runs around $9-11.

2 people, 2800sf home, I just don't use much juice.

Probably drove about 500 miles in that period.

My lowest electric bill for 2018 was $6.16, that was before I started charging at home.

If I was smarter I would post a picture of my bill. I'm just a tightwad, and can usually find a way to pay less for things. Been this was all my life.

About 20 years ago, I had a guy from the city tell me" We changed your water meter twice, we thought it was broken". Bill was $2.00 for that 60 day period.

As I look at rates for Southern Cali I see minimum rates of 10 cents/kWh, more like 15-20 cents/kWh. Perhaps you are using solar or some other alternate source for electricity?

Have to ask as there has to be something you aren't being transparent about as, if my math is right, the cost to charge a 75 kWh Tesla battery would be $11-15 (before any other taxes/fees/charges). That should be good for about 275 miles. So if you drive 750 miles in a month the cost to recharge your EV would be what your total electric bill is.

So what's in that secret sauce?

 

[bobandsherry]

What is it you are trying to say? It really is not clear.

Are you trying to tell us it is cheaper to run a car on home-charging (w/o any road tax added), than to buy gasoline? OK, I don't think anyone denies that.

But if you intend to be persuasive, you need relevant numbers. How much of that bill is for the 500 miles? What do you pay per kWh? There is not much substance to your post without that. But I could guess...

$37.81 -$ 6.16, round down to $30 for 500 miles. And that is more than generous, because most bills include a fixed monthly charge, so the inrease would be on a smaller base consumption number. At an estimated 3 miles /kWh that gets you to around $0.20/kWh - about right? With a 30 mpg car that doesn't cost $44,000, and national average gas price of $2.28 (https://gasprices.aaa.com/ ), it would cost $38. Not really such a difference, and we support the roads you drive on because we pay road taxes. That won't last if EVs take off as some predict. To summarize:


Tesla.....: $30 for 500 miles
30 mpg car: $38 for 500 miles

-ERD50

Data point you are missing is TW is claiming his TOTAL electric bill was $36/month, includes the $$ to run electricity in his house. There's got to be something more under the hood.

 

[ERD50]

Data point you are missing is TW is claiming his TOTAL electric bill was $36/month, includes the $$ to run electricity in his house. There's got to be something more under the hood.

I subtracted his lowest bill from current, assuming lowest to be baseline use w/o charging (or maybe he was away from home?). But it is all rather silly w/o real numbers. Bills can vary month-month for all sorts of reasons, we sometimes get an estimated bill that is matched up the next month. Again, what point is he trying to make - he should just spit it out? From these silly numbers, charging at home doesn't seem like such a great savings - was that his point?

Also, the earlier post from Ronstar on fuel taxes missed the $0.184 of Federal taxes. But if you add that to the average weighted state tax, you are a bit lower overall, but close at ~ $0.49/gallon.

-ERD50

 

[NW-Bound]

How low can one's electricity consumption be? Let's just look at what it costs for warm showers.

A gallon of water weighs 8.35 lbs. A 50-gal water heater contains 418 lbs of water. A BTU is the heat to raise 1 lb of water up 1 deg F. It takes 20,900 BTU to raise one tankful from 70F to 120F.

These BTUs are the same as 6.125 kWh. At a reasonable cost of $0.12/kWh, it costs $0.735 just to heat that water. In California, electricity often costs 2x that much. I am surprised not more of Californians take sponge bath.

How many tanks of hot water a family uses a month?

 

[Ronstar]

Also, the earlier post from Ronstar on fuel taxes missed the $0.184 of Federal taxes. But if you add that to the average weighted state tax, you are a bit lower overall, but close at ~ $0.49/gallon.

-ERD50

Thanks - I was looking at it mainly from a state perspective, wondering when Illinois will jump in the EV tax game, and to what extent. But the $0.184 federal tax you mention tells me that the fed could eventually get in the EV tax game as well.

This said, I’m not upset that EV’s are avoiding road taxes. (I’m for cleaner energy). But I would be upset if my gas tax was increased to compensate for the loss of gas tax revenue due to an increase in EV numbers.

 

[NW-Bound]

... I would be upset if my gas tax was increased to compensate for the loss of gas tax revenue due to an increase in EV numbers.

Eh, the money has to come from somewhere. You expect it to grow on trees? Like many people seem to think?

 

[ERD50]

How low can one's electricity consumption be? Let's just look at what it costs for warm showers.

A gallon of water weighs 8.35 lbs. A 50-gal water heater contains 418 lbs of water. A BTU is the heat to raise 1 lb of water up 1 deg F. It takes 20,900 BTU to raise one tankful from 70F to 120F.

These BTUs are the same as 6.125 kWh. At a reasonable cost of $0.12/kWh, it costs $0.735 just to heat that water. In California, electricity often costs 2x that much. I am surprised not more of Californians take sponge bath.

How many tanks of hot water a family uses a month?

Well, he mentioned monthly gas bills of $9~$11. But these all seem low. Maybe CA is different, but our basic connection charges with zero usage are close to that. My lowest bills in summer, water heat (new efficient water heater with damper control) and cooking only, 2 people who are conservative with resources, still come out above $20/month.

... This said, I’m not upset that EV’s are avoiding road taxes. (I’m for cleaner energy). ...

I'm for cleaner energy as well, but as we've discussed before, EVs may not be much cleaner, if at all (especially after considering battery production/salvage), over a modern hybrid.

-ERD50

 

[NW-Bound]

... our basic connection charges with zero usage are close to that. My lowest bills in summer, water heat (new efficient water heater with damper control) and cooking only, 2 people who are conservative with resources, still come out above $20/month...

I do not have handy the detailed utility bill at my 2nd home, but the lowest bill when we are not even there is $23, with only the refrigerator running. Water heater and lights are turned off.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

As I look at rates for Southern Cali I see minimum rates of 10 cents/kWh, more like 15-20 cents/kWh. Perhaps you are using solar or some other alternate source for electricity?

Have to ask as there has to be something you aren't being transparent about as, if my math is right, the cost to charge a 75 kWh Tesla battery would be $11-15 (before any other taxes/fees/charges). That should be good for about 275 miles. So if you drive 750 miles in a month the cost to recharge your EV would be what your total electric bill is.

So what's in that secret sauce?

Last natural gas bill was 13.47. It does rise a couple bucks in the winter due to the water heater.

Nope, no solar. Bill says .72 basic charge, delivery charge 11.10, 25.92 generation charge, .07 state tax. .12 per kWh.

The electric company sends out a notice once a month, comparing you to all neighbors and efficient neighbors. Before I bought the EV's, I was always in the top 10% of efficient users and miles ahead of normal users. With both electric cars, I'm still around 50 percentile of efficient users. Anyone near LA will get this notice and be familiar with what I'm referring to.

There are two Tesla owners on my block, otherwise everyone else is just powering their household on the above comparisons.

I just left Target a while ago. Paid 40% less for some things by pointing out some facts about sales to the cashier. It didn't qualify for the sale, but I got my 40% off. I've stunned friends and acquaintances by getting 50% off at Pavillions (Vons) supermarket pretty much every time I go. Not on everything, just select things. I only purchase those items I can get reduced. Normal stuff is bought at Trader Joes, where I admit my techniques don't work.

One thing I recommend is to always make friends with the cashiers.