Thoughts on TESLA

[Lakewood90712]

Model Y deposits

So, if someone places a deposit for a model Y, does it go into an escrow account, or would be lost if TSLA went into BK.

Asking for a friend

 

[bobandsherry]

The pre-market reaction has been pretty negative, down almost $9 or 3%. Guess we'll have to see how the stock moves during the day once the fan boys get up, maybe they'll have different reaction and drive up the price today.



View attachment 31002

Welp, looks like despite an up day in the market Tesla was down 5% and on volume that's almost double the daily average, so the Model Y news wasn't taken as positive news.

 

[ls99]

Model Y looks suspiciously like a model 3 with a 1" lift kit.

 

[bobandsherry]

Another opinion on where stock is heading.

Tamberrino’s 12-month price target is $210, representing a 25 percent drop from current levels. Tesla shares fell 0.2 percent in premarket trading Wednesday to $282.70.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/13/gol...so-sell-the-stock.html?recirc=taboolainternal

And then there is ARK Invest who has $4,000 per share target

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/02/20/tesla-is-going-to-be-the-next-amazon-says-major-shareholder

For me, I'll bet on the under.

 

[ERD50]

I was not impressed with that model Y debut. ....

You can only offer the same exact looking car for so long.

...

I am excited with what he's done with the Rockets though.

Agree on all of the above. I only skimmed the presentation later last night, an hour or more of Tesla history, and 7 minutes on the 'next big thing", the thing some here are saying is going to be so important to Tesla's future, the Model Y (look back at posts like #2720.) ?

I'll watch again when I have time, but he sure didn't seem to convey much enthusiasm, or have a lot of exciting info. The whole presentation seemed weak (being polite).

Maybe focusing on Tesla's past, rather than the future is really saying something?

Kind of a letdown as I was expecting something like a Rav4 in size and shape. Maybe a Rav4 Hybrid is a better solution. Hey, Toyota is selling them like crazy these days.

Model Y looks suspiciously like a model 3 with a 1" lift kit.

I'd love to see the profiles superimposed, from what I saw there just wasn't much difference.

And going up in price is kinda against the plan. Why not introduce the SUV/crossover at the higher price first, allowing more time to improve costs for a profitable $35,000 model 3?

Welp, looks like despite an up day in the market Tesla was down 5% and on volume that's almost double the daily average, so the Model Y news wasn't taken as positive news.

View attachment 31005

Model Y announcement not looking so great...

Unless something changes from what I see, I feel TSLA is getting deeper into trouble.

-ERD50

 

[aja8888]

Model Y announcement not looking so great...

Unless something changes from what I see, I feel TSLA is getting deeper into trouble.

-ERD50

I think the bloom will continue come off the rose when the large number of Model 3's (and older models) need service/repair and there will be very little of that on a timely basis due to increased numbers of sold cars, very few available "service" locations and the increase in frequency of repair per car.

It doesn't make sense to me how a successful car company can based their success on sales and not on service as the two are both necessary for continued growth.

There also is no mention of a growing parts network.

 

[samclem]

Is there room for Tesla as an EV technology company, but not in the vehicle production biz? There are other companies that have the expertise and in-place infrastructure to produce vehicles more efficiently than Tesla, and to service them, etc.
Honestly, I don't think so. The car manufacturers can do the engineering and development Tesla is doing. But they won't do it if they assess that IC cars are a more profitable use of capital/other resources. That's the only reason they didnt do it before.

 

[ERD50]

I think the bloom will continue come off the rose when the large number of Model 3's (and older models) need service/repair and there will be very little of that on a timely basis due to increased numbers of sold cars, very few available "service" locations and the increase in frequency of repair per car. ...

I posted a while back that Tesla owners in Norway were not happy with the service delays. Just google "norway tesla service delays", lots of hits.

Musk Holds Talks in Norway on Bigger Fix to Tesla's Service Woes ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/.../musk-holds-talks-in-norway-on-bigger-fix-to-tesla-s-s...

Feb 11, 2019 - Tesla Inc.'s Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk visited Norway to accelerate a fix to service capacity in a key market for the carmaker after delays ...


Tesla owners fume about delays for service - SFChronicle.com

https://www.sfchronicle.com/.../Tesla-owners-fume-about-delays-for-service-1311210...

Jul 27, 2018 - Parts shortages, long repair delays and problems getting through on customer ... A Tesla service agent said he couldn't leave the car there because the ... In Norway, the third largest market for Tesla cars after the U.S. and ...

Musk visits Norway to review Tesla delivery delays - Automotive News
https://www.autonews.com/retail/musk-visits-norway-review-tesla-delivery-delays

Feb 11, 2019 - Tesla's Elon Musk visited Norway to review service in the automaker's third-biggest global market, where delays have upset customers.

Being a big seller, and not having convenient service and not being able to have owners use a generic 3rd party garage sounds like a recipe for disaster.

-ERD50

 

[Independent]

Model Y looks suspiciously like a model 3 with a 1" lift kit.

Yep. I looked at the Tesla website and couldn't find the basic exterior dimensions - wheelbase, length, width, height.

That fastback makes it look like it competes against an X4 rather than and X3.
BMW sold about 4,000 X4s last year, vesus 61,000 X3s.

 

[Lakewood90712]

Model Y base price $ 60K . That car will make money , assuming the place stays together until the release.

 

[bobandsherry]

Yep. I looked at the Tesla website and couldn't find the basic exterior dimensions - wheelbase, length, width, height.

I'm thinking this Model Y release was just very rushed (trying to improve the stock price) and that it's still largely a concept. Sure, they put together a prototype to show, but strangely the lighting of the room and car was very dark, like they didn't want you to really see the look of the car. Maybe this explains why recent VP/Engineer let and without any next job lined up.

So no specs yet as it's still just a prototype, but come on down and put your $2,500 down on a car that MIGHT be delivered in 18 months, maybe 24, maybe who knows when. And BTW, they don't know where it will be built, nor how much it will cost to tool the location for production. SMH.

 

[bobandsherry]

Model Y base price $ 60K . That car will make money , assuming the place stays together until the release.

Huh? Where ya seeing $60K "base price"? That's the price for the "performance" model. The "long range" base is $47K. The "standard range", while not available will be $39K (at least that's what Musk is walking around and saying).

 

[kcowan]

I'd say to perfection and then a premium on top of that. However, as an investor, you betting on the over or under?

I don't even have gold. I say to my fellow investors: "I have won the game and no longer speculate."

I want to see them win though but I consider them an underdog in the auto industry. For my buddies who took the plunge in buying the model S, I worry about them getting spare parts when they need them. That is an ever-growing legacy of their success.

 

[Totoro]

So, if someone places a deposit for a model Y, does it go into an escrow account, or would be lost if TSLA went into BK.

What I could find about the Tesla Roadster 2.0: No escrow account. Money gone.

So I'm assuming it's the same with Model Y.

 

[bobandsherry]

So, if someone places a deposit for a model Y, does it go into an escrow account, or would be lost if TSLA went into BK.

Asking for a friend

One has to wonder why Tesla increased their deposit from $1,000 (as they originally required) to now $2,500. You are essentially just floating them interest free loan and with no promise of when you'll get your car, maybe 18 months from now, maybe 2 years, who knows. Specific to your question, everything I've read is these funds just sit in the general operations fund at Tesla and not held in escrow. This article also states similar, you then become an unsecured creditor.

 

[aja8888]

Can someone show me where it (Tesla) says the $2500 payment to Tesla for a model Y is actually a deposit on the car's purchase price?

 

[Lakewood90712]

Huh? Where ya seeing $60K "base price"? That's the price for the "performance" model. The "long range" base is $47K. The "standard range", while not available will be $39K (at least that's what Musk is walking around and saying).

I am assuming the lower level models will never see the light of day, so I consider the 60K as base.

Being a crossover on the existing model 3 chassis , it should be a real moneymaker on the cars that will actually be produced and sold. " Standard range" is a unicorn.

 

[Lakewood90712]

Can someone show me where it (Tesla) says the $2500 payment to Tesla for a model Y is actually a deposit on the car's purchase price?

Have not been to a Tesla website lately. I seem to recall " Reservation " was the term.

 

[bobandsherry]

I am assuming the lower level models will never see the light of day, so I consider the 60K as base.



Being a crossover on the existing model 3 chassis , it should be a real moneymaker on the cars that will actually be produced and sold. " Standard range" is a unicorn.

Still don't understand how you equate as $60k base. Their initial long range is $47k. Whatever...

 

[aja8888]

Have not been to a Tesla website lately. I seem to recall " Reservation " was the term.

I read something to the effect in one of the many articles in the last two days that if this $2500 is not a "deposit" on a sale, then Tesla can use the "reservation" funds however they choose and not claim them as sales revenue.

 

[Lakewood90712]

Just got the Sunday night e mail from " Troy" at Tesla. Says all prices go up Monday, except the base model 3. On the model Y, all the prices listed have an asterisk * ( "includes gas savings " )

Model Y link : https://www.tesla.com/modely/design...ontent=product_update&smc_id=29116629#battery

Some models can be ordered now.

Standard range is estimated to start production in 2021

 

[ERD50]

Just got the Sunday night e mail from " Troy" at Tesla. Says all prices go up Monday, except the base model 3. On the model Y, all the prices listed have an asterisk * ( "includes gas savings " )

Model Y link : https://www.tesla.com/modely/design...ontent=product_update&smc_id=29116629#battery

Some models can be ordered now.

Standard range is estimated to start production in 2021

That "includes gas savings" price of $42,700 is really, well... something. Geez, they have that as the prominent price, with the asterisk, "Learn More", and a $47,000 "Before Savings" at the left bottom of the page, but the focus is on the "Select Your Car" on the right.

So what do you get when you click "Learn More"? Oh my, a popup explains to us that $47,000 - $4,300 in "gas savings" = $42,700! Ummm, I have a calculator, I can do the math. That is pathetic. How about explaining how this number was derived, gas price, kWh price, how many miles, does it include the cost of charger installation, etc.

It's fine to highlight savings, but simply subtracting it from the price is beyond misleading. And that savings will come over time - in fact, the cost of a charger raises the "purchase price". Isn't this a violation of FTC advertising laws?

It really strikes me as desperate.

-ERD50

 

[bobandsherry]

That "includes gas savings" price of $42,700 is really, well... something. Geez, they have that as the prominent price, with the asterisk, "Learn More", and a $47,000 "Before Savings" at the left bottom of the page, but the focus is on the "Select Your Car" on the right.

So what do you get when you click "Learn More"? Oh my, a popup explains to us that $47,000 - $4,300 in "gas savings" = $42,700! Ummm, I have a calculator, I can do the math. That is pathetic. How about explaining how this number was derived, gas price, kWh price, how many miles, does it include the cost of charger installation, etc.

It's fine to highlight savings, but simply subtracting it from the price is beyond misleading. And that savings will come over time - in fact, the cost of a charger raises the "purchase price". Isn't this a violation of FTC advertising laws?

It really strikes me as desperate.

-ERD50

I've found that "*" pricing to be really a stretch. For some people, myself included, I probably don't even spend as much their assumed gas use, so very wrong for me.


Here's the assumptions used by Tesla:

We've assumed a fuel economy of 28 miles per gallon for a comparable gasoline powered sedan, for example, the 2017 BMW 3 series. We've also assumed the national average of $0.13 per kilowatt-hour for electricity and $2.85 per gallon for premium gasoline over the next six years.

And does Tesla really know that electricity prices will remain stable with gas prices? I know I don't, I think electricity costs will increase as a bigger % if EV becomes more mainstrean.

And 6 years of assumed ownership seems to be pretty long, again for me it is

All that said, is Tesla willing to guarantee me those savings? If not, then it def seems to be in violation of FTC advertising laws.

I guess I'm surprised that Tesla didn't figure in the savings on maintenance and toss that into the mix as well.

 

[samclem]

All that said, is Tesla willing to guarantee me those savings? If not, then it def seems to be in violation of FTC advertising laws.

Some people might not put too much value on a 6 year guarantee from Tesla Motors.

I guess I'm surprised that Tesla didn't figure in the savings on maintenance and toss that into the mix as well.

At some point, I'm sure they'll add in the amortized cost of the battery pack replacement, just to make things equitable. The battery replacement will gobble up most or all of those gas savings. I won't hold my breath.

 

[Lakewood90712]

I see the Tesla estimated gas cost savings. Should I also include Tesla service cost's too see post # 8 for an eye opener https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/what-what-850-for-annual-service.128783/

Excluding tires, I have spent about $2200 total over 5 years and 100k miles on maintenance for a Toyota product. 2.2 cents a mile