Time to be greedy?

The time to be greedy was when prices were 7% to 10% lower within the last month.

Now that things have gone up so much, I would not be greedy here.
 
LOL! said:
... Now that things have gone up so much, I would not be greedy here.
Click to expand...
+1. I am not selling either.

By the way, what is the source of the data, or the survey of investor's sentiment? The chart says LPL Research, but I have not heard of them.
 
I don't recall seeing much fear. Did large caps even break in to bear territory?

Given the run we've had since the S&P hit a low of 666 in 2009 and the valuations we have now, I'll start getting interested when stocks are down 30% or so from their highs. Wake me when we're in recession.
 
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I don't know, time to be greedy or catch a falling knife, what's the difference? Who knows? My rollover IRA finally arrived at Vanguard the day the market was at an all time low, Feb 11, I couldn't buy anything because it was converting to money market. I had to wait for the next day and that's when the market came off its low.


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum
 
Markola said:
I can't vouch for this table but, if true, it upholds Warren Buffet's maxim to be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful (now). I won't personally change my portfolio, but I enjoy watching the stock market churn: Joe Fahmy's Tumblr — Lowest Number Of Bulls In 23 Years!
Click to expand...

"My friend Ryan Detrick posted a chart recently showing that bullish sentiment among individual investors dropped to its lowest level in 23 years!"

Hmm... maybe they were long the oil sector? :LOL:
 
As I said, I'm not changing anything in my AA. Still, I like indicators showing what the herd believes because we know the herd is usually exactly wrong. Maybe this data point showing few Bulls portends a decent time for US stocks. We'll see. It came from the internet so it must be valid. :)
 
LOL! said:
The time to be greedy was when prices were 7% to 10% lower within the last month.
Click to expand...

+1
That ship has passed - for now.
You'll recognize the time when you really need to be greedy (usually in hindsight) when you get that sickening feeling about putting big dollars into a market that seems to know no bottom.
 
If you all are looking for "blood in the streets", just invest in the oil sector...

Its been about as much fun as smashing your face into a brick wall repeatedly. :banghead:
 
ESRwannabe said:
If you all are looking for "blood in the streets", just invest in the oil sector...

Its been about as much fun as smashing your face into a brick wall repeatedly. :banghead:
Click to expand...

In the recession of 2002-2003, I capitulated and bailed out of tech stock and loaded up on material stocks. That saved my skin, because sometimes the "blood in the streets" came from a slayed bull that never ran again.

PS. I lost almost 1/2 of my money from the top of 2000 to the bottom of 2003, but then made it back and some.
 
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Markola said:
I can't vouch for this table but, if true, it upholds Warren Buffet's maxim to be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful (now). I won't personally change my portfolio, but I enjoy watching the stock market churn: Joe Fahmy's Tumblr — Lowest Number Of Bulls In 23 Years!
Click to expand...

It is a combo of luck and greed. And taking RISK with my $$$$$.

I bought 400 shares of UPS @ $89 and I will soon collect the dividend and get out @ $100.

I just sold 500 shares of T @ $37.40 and made a nice swing trade profit.

WMT and SBUX are also stocks I have been greedy and lucky with recently.

I have been very lucky so far with my greed. ;)
 
NW-Bound said:
In the recession of 2002-2003, I capitulated and bailed out of tech stock and loaded up on material stocks. That saved my skin, because sometimes the "blood in the streets" came from a slayed bull that never ran again.

PS. I lost almost 1/2 of my money from the top of 2000 to the bottom of 2003, but then made it back and some.
Click to expand...


The good side of the oil crash is that the low prices wouldn't be there if it weren't for the crash. The downside is that I'm an imperfect market timer. So I get to endure a lot of mental frustration for who knows how long...

I am actually very bullish on what I own and I will probably keep buying more shares as long as I can lower my avg cost per share. Then again I may be on crack... :dance:

 
Over the years this short term trading on minor (<10%) swings has yielded me very little. The big gains are on the huge swings over a period of a year or so. However that is really when you have the real life stress related to a potential job loss, further loss in investments after 5 years gains lost etc. Until you've been through a few of those cycles it's all theory. And is it really different this time? Believe it or not sometimes it is.
 
ESRwannabe said:
If you all are looking for "blood in the streets", just invest in the oil sector...

Its been about as much fun as smashing your face into a brick wall repeatedly. :banghead:
Click to expand...

I've been investing in oil sector via Vanguard's VDE. Also been adding to my international exposure. I did a little bit of buying of US Total Market on the very down days, but not enough to move the needle as far as asset allocation.
 
Steady wins the race. Keep a regular investing schedule, on the way up and on the way down.

I went in a bit heavier for January and February, as I had my Roth and 401K to max out.

March starts my regular IVV investments.

Of course, I still pay extra on my 5.375 rental mortgage too.
 
One time when I used to be 90% stocks and 10% bonds, I threw the bonds into stocks after the market dropped about 10-12%. That was in 2007. I never did that again.

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Early Retirement Forum mobile app
 
I have seen other reports of bearishness reaching levels of 2009. Generally that does bode well for equities. I do not market time based on this or anything else, but it does give one a bit more hope for better times in the market.
 
stepford said:
"Time to be greedy?"

You lost me at the word "time".
Click to expand...

I hear you completely and I am not lifting a finger. On the other hand, presumably even Jack Bogle would like to see stocks climb, which possibly makes this obscure data point worth knowing about.
 
DrRoy said:
I have seen other reports of bearishness reaching levels of 2009. Generally that does bode well for equities. I do not market time based on this or anything else, but it does give one a bit more hope for better times in the market.
Click to expand...

I'd like to see how well measures of "bearishness" correlate with future stock returns when also coupled with a market as richly valued as this one. My guess is we're forecasting off of some pretty spurious correlations in that bearish sentiment is usually highest when stocks have gotten the crap beaten out of them for a long time. That's certainly not the case today.

My wager is that valuations dominate sentiment as far as future returns are concerned. And most domestic equities don't look particularly cheap.

That doesn't mean they can't get more expensive, though.
 
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That chart sure bounces all over the place in really short time frames.

If it is an accurate reflection of what people actually feel and think, that's our manic depressive friend mr. Market right there.

Nice to trade with, hope he doesn't move next door though.
 
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