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TNH
Old 04-03-2008, 09:02 AM   #1
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TNH

TNH has held its support thus far and looks like it's ready for another run. The key would be a breakout above $122, but I started buying it yesterday (a bit at a time). I also would suggest a stop loss at $107. Currently it's at $116 and change. JMO though. I'm thinking it has a target price around $200 or a split is coming.
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Old 04-03-2008, 09:05 AM   #2
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How in the heck do I get the symbol capitalized in the header?
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Old 04-03-2008, 02:08 PM   #3
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Interesting. What's the yield? I note from several sites the yearly dividend is listed at 17.80 and a yield of 15.9%. Can that be correct and, if so, are they about to reduce dividends?
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Old 04-03-2008, 02:12 PM   #4
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The current yield is about 9.5% and it will fluxuate from quarter to quarter. They just paid a HUGE dividend in Feb. I've owned it a few times and don't think I've ever seen the annualized yield at less than 7%, and have seen it as high as 17% for a while.
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Old 04-03-2008, 06:34 PM   #5
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How in the heck do I get the symbol capitalized in the header?
Fixed. There was a prevent shouting function which was modified to allow stock symbols.
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Old 04-03-2008, 07:15 PM   #6
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Holy Cow! A 5-year return of 3484%! Unbelievable!
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Old 04-04-2008, 06:45 AM   #7
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Ok what's the catch with TNH.

A fast growing, profitable company with growing dividend. I know fertilizer prices are skyrocketing so that explains the recent profits..

The dividends are lumpy but the trend is clearly positive
Quote:
02-08-08Cash Dividend 4.450000
11-06-07Cash Dividend 2.1000000
8-07-07Cash Dividend 3.0000000
5-08-07Cash Dividend 1.5700000
2-13-07Cash Dividend 0.970000
11-07-06Cash Dividend 1.0000000
8-07-06Cash Dividend 0.920000
11-04-05Cash Dividend 0.300000
08-04-05Cash Dividend 1.450000
05-05-05Cash Dividend 0.5500000
2-10-05Cash Dividend 0.650000
11-04-04Cash Dividend 0.5000000
8-05-04Cash Dividend 0.7500000
5-06-04Cash Dividend 0.2500000
2-05-04Cash Dividend 0.250000
None of the valuation ratios look out of whack P/E 10.6 P/S 3.6 P/Cash Flow 6.3.
No debt and $13/share cash..
Oh and a skyrocketing share price.
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Old 04-04-2008, 10:07 AM   #8
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I dunno what the catch is, but I am happy to say I've made quite a nice chunk on it. I first started buying it around $19, and have traded it a few times. It will pay for my kids college ejumacation.
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Old 04-16-2008, 09:58 AM   #9
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Running like crazy!! I'm predicting $200. JMO.

ooops! I see I've already predicted that. Sorry.
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Old 04-17-2008, 09:53 AM   #10
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Up another $7 today. Is this thing on??
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Old 04-19-2008, 07:12 AM   #11
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I put in a limit order a few weeks ago and missed it. It looks like I was penny wise and pound foolish. Damn, well maybe it will come down..
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Old 04-19-2008, 11:27 AM   #12
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I made a quick $19 a share on TNH thanks to this board. I bought at $119 (lucky day) and sold at $138. This was over a six-day period. I am kicking myself right now though because the stock closed over $156 on Friday. Jeepers! Not all trades are winners, but sometimes you get lucky.
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Old 04-19-2008, 07:08 PM   #13
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Still in since 116. Haven't seen anything like this since the dot com days. Those stocks were fertilizer also, of a different kind. Thanks, Art!
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Old 04-20-2008, 11:25 AM   #14
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There is a big red flag concerning this stock that I would want to get my arms around before I would consider buying it. I didn't do a lot of research on it but I seem to recall that TNH (a limited partnership) is paying 1% of the distributions to the general partner (TRA) and 99% to the general partners (you guys who hold stock). I think this is a temporary arrangement having to do with recouping prior losses. Once they reach a certain level of distributions (fairly soon), the split will change to 50/50. If this happens the stock is going to tank.

If anyone has a differing read on this, please comment. I would probably have bought some except for this.
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Old 04-20-2008, 12:12 PM   #15
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Correction: meant to say that TRA is the Limited partner. Sorry for any confusion.
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Old 04-21-2008, 01:51 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by Trapshooter View Post
There is a big red flag concerning this stock that I would want to get my arms around before I would consider buying it. I didn't do a lot of research on it but I seem to recall that TNH (a limited partnership) is paying 1% of the distributions to the general partner (TRA) and 99% to the general partners (you guys who hold stock). I think this is a temporary arrangement having to do with recouping prior losses. Once they reach a certain level of distributions (fairly soon), the split will change to 50/50. If this happens the stock is going to tank.

If anyone has a differing read on this, please comment. I would probably have bought some except for this.

Perhaps this will help. I don't see anything in it giving me cause for concern. JMO

http://www.terraindustries.com/inves...fact_sheet.pdf
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Old 04-21-2008, 01:56 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by FlaRan View Post
I made a quick $19 a share on TNH thanks to this board. I bought at $119 (lucky day) and sold at $138. This was over a six-day period. I am kicking myself right now though because the stock closed over $156 on Friday. Jeepers! Not all trades are winners, but sometimes you get lucky.
If ya' bought cause of this board, why the heck didn't you hold on?:confused:
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Old 04-21-2008, 03:16 PM   #18
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Art. You guys are making money hand over fist on this stock. Congrats to you all. The fact sheet you referenced doesn't address the issue of the general partner taking a larger share of the distributions going forward. It is spelled out in the most recent 10k (Feb 28 2008). My interpretation is that your distributions are going to be cut significantlly starting next quarter. I don't think most of the people buying the stock and driving up the price realize this. I think people are piling in mainly because its a fertilizer stock and as a bonus it has a great dividend. When realization hits it could get ugly. Although, who knows how high it may go in the interim. I would just be ready to bail out ahead of the herd. JMHO

Good Luck and again, congrats on a good call.

Quote:
Partnership Distributions
We make quarterly distributions to our partners based on available cash for the quarter as defined in our Agreement of Limited Partnership. Available cash is defined generally as all cash receipts less all cash disbursements, adjusted for changes in certain reserves established as the General Partner determines in its reasonable discretion to be necessary. We paid distributions of $144.2 million, $36.2 million and $55.7 million to our partners in 2007, 2006 and 2005, respectively.
We receive 99% of the available cash and 1% is distributed to its General Partner. Cash distributions from the Operating Partnership generally represent our available cash from operations. Our cash distributions are made 99.975% to Common Unitholders and 0.025% to our General Partner except when cumulative distributions of available cash exceed specified target levels above the Minimum Quarterly Distribution ("MQD") of $0.605 per unit. Under such circumstances, our General Partner is entitled, as an incentive, to larger percentage interests. As of December 31, 2007, the cumulative shortfall on quarterly distributions to holders of Common Units that must be paid before our General Partner receives an incentive payment was $125.3 million, or $6.70 per unit.
When cumulative distributions of Available Cash exceed specified target levels above the MQD, our General Partner's percentage interest in the Partnership's distributions of available cash at various levels follows:

Income and Distribution Allocation

Class B
Target Target Common Common General
Limit Increment Units Units Partner Total


Minimum Quarterly Distribution $ 0.605 0.605 98.99 % 0.98 % 0.03 % 100.00 %
First Target 0.715 0.110 98.99 % 0.98 % 0.03 % 100.00 %
Second Target 0.825 0.110 85.86 % 1.01 % 13.13 % 100.00 %
Third Target 1.045 0.220 75.76 % 1.01 % 23.23 % 100.00 %
Final Target and Beyond $ 1.045 - 50.51 % 1.01 % 48.48 % 100.00 %

On February 7, 2008, the Partnership announced a $4.45 per unit distribution to be paid during the 2008 first quarter. As a result of this distribution, we estimate the pro forma cumulative shortfall that must be paid before the General Partner affiliate receives an incentive payment as of March 31, 2008 is anticipated to be approximately $53.5 million, or $2.86 per unit.
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Old 04-21-2008, 03:26 PM   #19
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Well, I'm really kicking myself today. However, when I buy something in my trading account and there is a pop over a certain threshold in such a short period of time, I tend to take the gains. In some cases I lose out on missed opportunities. This is one of those cases. Thanks for the recommendation though. If you have any others. . .
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Old 04-21-2008, 04:07 PM   #20
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Art. You guys are making money hand over fist on this stock. Congrats to you all. The fact sheet you referenced doesn't address the issue of the general partner taking a larger share of the distributions going forward. It is spelled out in the most recent 10k (Feb 28 2008). My interpretation is that your distributions are going to be cut significantlly starting next quarter. I don't think most of the people buying the stock and driving up the price realize this. I think people are piling in mainly because its a fertilizer stock and as a bonus it has a great dividend. When realization hits it could get ugly. Although, who knows how high it may go in the interim. I would just be ready to bail out ahead of the herd. JMHO

Good Luck and again, congrats on a good call.
The way I'm reading is that the common shareholders get paid first. That and if shares are bought back, they are done so at the average price of the last 20 days (which admittedly would be a bit lower).
Again, maybe I'm missing something, but I'm not seeing the upcoming bad news. Can you more directly point it out to these tired eyes?
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