Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
What Happened to Market Volatility?
Old 01-26-2012, 03:33 PM   #1
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 11,964
What Happened to Market Volatility?

I suspect I'll get shooshed for saying anything. But it's interesting how market volatility seems to have subsided considerably near the end of the year. It seemed like the European debt crisis was driving much of the volatility along with USA congressional paralysis. AFAIK, those two issues are still unresolved. Not complaining, just wondering...(churning for year end bonuses? - that would be too cynical)
Attached Images
File Type: gif DJIA.gif (29.5 KB, 12 views)
__________________

__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 60% equity funds / 35% bond funds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 01-26-2012, 03:41 PM   #2
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Cville
Posts: 399
Perhaps the market makers are really introverts and saw Keim's post, and decided it was time to stop pretending.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Keim View Post
I am an introvert .
__________________

__________________
RetireBy90 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2012, 03:53 PM   #3
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,612
I've noticed the same thing but haven't said anything so as to not jinx it. Shh!

No idea, though. Even the on-again-off-again implosion of Greece and the Eurozone isn't creating much of a stir. Seems odd given recent history.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2012, 03:59 PM   #4
Full time employment: Posting here.
tightasadrum's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: athens
Posts: 802
Congress is not in session.
__________________
Can't you see yourself in the nursing home saying, " Darn! Wish I'd spent more time at the office instead of wasting time with family and friends."
tightasadrum is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2012, 05:00 PM   #5
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,826
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
I've noticed the same thing but haven't said anything so as to not jinx it. Shh!
Obviously this is one of those threads in which I shouldn't say a word, certainly not any beginning with "Wh"....

But I have been thinking the same thing.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2012, 05:16 PM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 3,695
Some thoughts: (and yes, shhhhhhh)

1) Headline fatique. Investors just stopped reacting to every little nuance coming out of Europe.
2) Many MFs have slowly and quietly reallocated away from European/Euro dependent equities
3) Belief that the US economy is getting stronger (see #1)
4) A coming European recession is already 'baked in' to the US equitiy prices. (see #2)
__________________
marko is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2012, 05:59 PM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
clifp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,450
Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack View Post
I suspect I'll get shooshed for saying anything. But it's interesting how market volatility seems to have subsided considerably near the end of the year. It seemed like the European debt crisis was driving much of the volatility along with USA congressional paralysis. AFAIK, those two issues are still unresolved. Not complaining, just wondering...(churning for year end bonuses? - that would be too cynical)
I'm sure I'm in a minority but I am very disappointed to see the volatility drops so dramatically. The VIX was crazy high back in the summer which made it a very profitable time to write options. At the point I am pretty much out of the business of writing options, because I think the risk of a market correction aren't substantially lower than they were back in the summer because as you say neither the European debt crisis, nor the fundamental conflicts in the US about how to handle our debt are close to being resolved.
__________________
clifp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2012, 06:04 PM   #8
Full time employment: Posting here.
arebelspy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 625
I had noticed as well.

As for upcoming stability, are election years typically more or less volatile than average?
__________________
arebelspy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2012, 07:21 PM   #9
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 23
Lloyd Blankfein has his finger on the dow UP button. He'll get tired soon.
__________________
eatingmywords is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2012, 07:30 PM   #10
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Chuckanut's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 6,318
Doesn't the market generally go up during a presidential election year?
__________________
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
Chuckanut is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2012, 07:41 PM   #11
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,826
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuckanut View Post
Doesn't the market generally go up during a presidential election year?
It used to, often. But then there was 2008...
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2012, 08:17 PM   #12
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,412
Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack View Post
I suspect I'll get shooshed for saying anything. But it's interesting how market volatility seems to have subsided considerably near the end of the year. It seemed like the European debt crisis was driving much of the volatility along with USA congressional paralysis. AFAIK, those two issues are still unresolved. Not complaining, just wondering...(churning for year end bonuses? - that would be too cynical)
it is kind of scary, but with the ECB guarantee of 3 years backstopping banks and the US Fed committed to almost free funds through 2014, this is not a surprise.
__________________

__________________
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Capital Market Expectations and SWR REattempt FIRE and Money 12 01-09-2012 07:30 PM
5 hard truths for a tough market REWahoo FIRE and Money 18 10-08-2011 10:29 AM
How much should the market climate affect SS Decision? potto0213 FIRE and Money 19 10-04-2011 08:25 AM
Tried a little market timing yesterday Packman FIRE and Money 6 09-17-2011 12:24 PM
Money Market funds in potential danger. clifp FIRE and Money 22 07-06-2011 07:10 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 09:09 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.