We're looking for a better way to assess our assets (present value of our future annuities) and we're considering ideas on deciding when to "take some off the table"… whatever that means. One blatant candidate for tabling gains (and for reducing our portfolio's single-stock risk) would be Berkshire Hathaway.
Keep in mind that we have a hard time seeing ourselves selling any of our remaining Berkshire shares. We're familiar with the company and its issues, and I still consider Berkshire to be undervalued. Last year we sold off a sizable slug of Berkshire shares to rebalance our ER portfolio and to cash out our kid's college fund. Right now, we'd only sell more Berkshire shares if they become so highly valued that they exceed their asset allocation. Other than rebalancing, we don't have any need to sell shares.
But I'm willing to turn the question around: why own Berkshire at all? Why not own something better?
The problem is finding "better". "The Next Berkshire Hathaway" appears to be a hackneyed oxymoron. Here's the goals a replacement asset would need to beat:
- Trustworthy management
- Capable management
- Below intrinsic value
- Huge cashflow
- Huge margins (or enough volume to overcome smaller margins)
While this may not describe many of today's stocks, it might describe a few bonds.
Some candidates include Lampert, Danaher, and Loews. However Lampert (in my opinion) is getting sucked into the quicksand by Sears and Kmart. He may recover by breaking them both up (or shutting them down) but they're depressing his portfolio value. The Danaher brothers seem publicity-shy but they didn't fare very well in an old Business Week article and I'd benefit from a more balanced profile of them and their business. IIRC, though, they tend to overhaul acquisitions by replacing management and cutting costs-- not quite the same idea as Berkshire. And while I've read about Loews, it's my impression that they're struggling to get the family bank through some risky bets while carrying shareholders along for the ride.
Maybe some of these goals could be finessed by just liquidating Berkshire for an index ETF or a REIT. (No mutual funds.) Our other ETFs already cover small-cap value and large-cap dividends, both domestic & international. Considering that the rest of our assets include COLA'd pensions and a rental home, I'd have a hard time understanding the need for other asset classes. If we took Berkshire off the table today then it'd probably go into our other ETFs or straight to CDs and I bonds.
Any other ideas?
Keep in mind that we have a hard time seeing ourselves selling any of our remaining Berkshire shares. We're familiar with the company and its issues, and I still consider Berkshire to be undervalued. Last year we sold off a sizable slug of Berkshire shares to rebalance our ER portfolio and to cash out our kid's college fund. Right now, we'd only sell more Berkshire shares if they become so highly valued that they exceed their asset allocation. Other than rebalancing, we don't have any need to sell shares.
But I'm willing to turn the question around: why own Berkshire at all? Why not own something better?
The problem is finding "better". "The Next Berkshire Hathaway" appears to be a hackneyed oxymoron. Here's the goals a replacement asset would need to beat:
- Trustworthy management
- Capable management
- Below intrinsic value
- Huge cashflow
- Huge margins (or enough volume to overcome smaller margins)
While this may not describe many of today's stocks, it might describe a few bonds.
Some candidates include Lampert, Danaher, and Loews. However Lampert (in my opinion) is getting sucked into the quicksand by Sears and Kmart. He may recover by breaking them both up (or shutting them down) but they're depressing his portfolio value. The Danaher brothers seem publicity-shy but they didn't fare very well in an old Business Week article and I'd benefit from a more balanced profile of them and their business. IIRC, though, they tend to overhaul acquisitions by replacing management and cutting costs-- not quite the same idea as Berkshire. And while I've read about Loews, it's my impression that they're struggling to get the family bank through some risky bets while carrying shareholders along for the ride.
Maybe some of these goals could be finessed by just liquidating Berkshire for an index ETF or a REIT. (No mutual funds.) Our other ETFs already cover small-cap value and large-cap dividends, both domestic & international. Considering that the rest of our assets include COLA'd pensions and a rental home, I'd have a hard time understanding the need for other asset classes. If we took Berkshire off the table today then it'd probably go into our other ETFs or straight to CDs and I bonds.
Any other ideas?