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Old 02-03-2018, 11:49 AM   #21
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I've done well investing in Ford over the years. I bought some in 2008 for $2, and have sold and bought some since. They weathered the 2008 dip without needing a bailout and they've been paying a good dividend since 2012. I'm thinking about buying more.
There are few good deals on stocks these days, but I think Ford is one of them.
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Old 02-03-2018, 12:09 PM   #22
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Great discussion - just what I hoped for.

I bought another 500 shares yesterday - not so much for the likely increase, but more of a play for the dividend.

I have had several Ford vehicles over the last few years - two of the new Taurus models, two Explorers and a Sport Trac ... lots of buddies with F150s/250s. My experiences have been better than very good - a few bad stories from my buddies but in general about the same as GM, etc. And, to be clear - WAAAAY better than what my MB and BMW friends says about their reliability issues.

Didn't want to sound so much like a commercial ... sorry ...

Will be watching on Monday :-)
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Old 02-03-2018, 12:25 PM   #23
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I bought their stock for the dividend play and for slow appreciation; I appreciate the fact they didn't take a bailout. That being said..... I can't stand their cars or trucks.

That being said, I've always bought GM cars, I currently have 3. However, I did buy their stock in 2006 and got wiped out. If I buy another vehicle, it will be another GM product, but I don't buy new.
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Old 02-13-2018, 04:53 AM   #24
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I have recently bought some - at $10.35 .... thought the dividend was worth getting , vs having "cash" sitting about. Not expecting any big movements in either direction in the short term .... famous last words ! (Did NOT make a large investment ... would consider buying some more if it goes to single figures ?)
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Old 02-13-2018, 05:17 AM   #25
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I have recently bought some - at $10.35 .... thought the dividend was worth getting , vs having "cash" sitting about. Not expecting any big movements in either direction in the short term .... famous last words ! (Did NOT make a large investment ... would consider buying some more if it goes to single figures ?)
Iím curious whether you owned a Ford Cortina at one time?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Cortina
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Old 02-13-2018, 06:20 AM   #26
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Iím curious whether you owned a Ford Cortina at one time?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Cortina
Yes ... three from memory . 2 of them used in competition (closed road stage rallying ! (1962 / 1965 manufacture)) ... not sure it is relevant to share trading ... but now you know !!
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Old 02-13-2018, 10:02 AM   #27
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Bought F back in 2008 timeframe around $2-$3, sold at $8, wish I had kept it.

Have owned numerous Fords over the years, still have an Explorer Sport Trac with over 150k miles, gas, tires, oil and brakes has been it.

Oh, and this...

I kind of like Fords. Not buying the stock right now though.
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Old 02-13-2018, 12:03 PM   #28
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I do not tend to buy the stock of products that I own. The one exception is AAPL but that one was bought before we had any of their products and it was stimulated by us being users of MS whose stock we do not own.

(We own an Explorer and an Escape.)
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Old 02-13-2018, 12:19 PM   #29
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The fact that Ford did not declare bankruptcy has actually hurt them. The system rewarded GM and Chrysler by eliminating their debt, allowing them to invest in their businesses. Take a look at Fords debt level. It’s massive. Their stock is going no where fast. Jmho
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Old 02-13-2018, 12:32 PM   #30
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The fact that Ford did not declare bankruptcy has actually hurt them. The system rewarded GM and Chrysler by eliminating their debt, allowing them to invest in their businesses. Take a look at Fords debt level. Itís massive. Their stock is going no where fast. Jmho
Well, I made a nice profit on F debt. Bought some 7.5% notes par value 25 at around $5 during the financial crisis. I did this instead of the common as it was higher on the bankruptcy pecking order and I figured Ford had a non-zero chance of getting there (Bankrupt). Got paid at a 35% annual rate (7.5*25/5) for a few years until Ford called at $25 (so I made 5x on my investment plus the outrageous interest payments).

I had people at the time asking about buying GM stock - and I told them a) No way and B) if they wanted to play the auto makers the only sane way was to buy the debt. Even with that, I wouldn't touch GM as I figured they and Chrysler were weaker players and their bankruptcy would benefit F. [Editorial note, the GM Bondholders got hosed during GM's bankruptcy, upsetting 150 years of Bankruptcy case law.]
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Old 02-13-2018, 02:15 PM   #31
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Well, I made a nice profit on F debt. Bought some 7.5% notes par value 25 at around $5 during the financial crisis. I did this instead of the common as it was higher on the bankruptcy pecking order and I figured Ford had a non-zero chance of getting there (Bankrupt). Got paid at a 35% annual rate (7.5*25/5) for a few years until Ford called at $25 (so I made 5x on my investment plus the outrageous interest payments).

I had people at the time asking about buying GM stock - and I told them a) No way and B) if they wanted to play the auto makers the only sane way was to buy the debt. Even with that, I wouldn't touch GM as I figured they and Chrysler were weaker players and their bankruptcy would benefit F. [Editorial note, the GM Bondholders got hosed during GM's bankruptcy, upsetting 150 years of Bankruptcy case law.]
Nice trade. Obviously not the same going forward.
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Old 02-13-2018, 04:29 PM   #32
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Nice trade. Obviously not the same going forward.
No, those were the days. It's funny, at the time, it sure didn't seem like it was the days (to be investing) with the world supposedly coming to an end.

Also I am timid in these kinds of investments, really doing fairly small bets, particularly when it comes to things with a lot of risk. Obviously a debt security trading at 20-30% of par has risk associated with it.
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Old 02-13-2018, 09:45 PM   #33
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I have had several Ford vehicles over the last few years ... My experiences have been better than very good - a few bad stories from my buddies but in general about the same as GM, etc. And, to be clear - WAAAAY better than what my MB and BMW friends say about their reliability issues.
That's a pretty low benchmark (surprised you didn't include a comparison to Lada and Yugo!).

Do you have any experience with Japanese autos?

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Old 02-15-2018, 09:41 PM   #34
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A week of upside in the market and this pig lags the S&P by about 50%. S&P up 1.21% today and F up by a whopping 0.19%. Speaks volumes on the lack of interest in F.

Just wait for next quarter when management stands up and lowers guidance yet again, maybe $8 will be buying opportunity. As an investment this has limited upside, so one should only buy if happy with dividend, but don't expect preservation of your investment.
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Old 02-15-2018, 10:29 PM   #35
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Normally you buy auto stocks at the bottom of a cycle not when it's coming off the peak of the cycle. 2018 is forecast to be a down year and 2019 even lower. Remember stocks trade on future earnings not past earnings.
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Old 02-16-2018, 07:48 AM   #36
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Normally you buy auto stocks at the bottom of a cycle not when it's coming off the peak of the cycle. 2018 is forecast to be a down year and 2019 even lower. Remember stocks trade on future earnings not past earnings.
GM, FCUA and F all are in same "cycle". F is down 20% from it's 52 week high while GM and FCUA are down 11% and 10% respectively. Looking at it from the low's for GM, FCUA and F the results are +31%, +133% and +6% respectively. So while I agree with you on buying at bottom F is the big laggard in whatever cycle is occurring now.

Knowing when you are at the top or bottom of a cycle is only after the top or bottom has occurred, similar to being Monday morning quarterback.
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Old 02-16-2018, 08:31 AM   #37
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GM, FCUA and F all are in same "cycle". F is down 20% from it's 52 week high while GM and FCUA are down 11% and 10% respectively. Looking at it from the low's for GM, FCUA and F the results are +31%, +133% and +6% respectively. So while I agree with you on buying at bottom F is the big laggard in whatever cycle is occurring now.

Knowing when you are at the top or bottom of a cycle is only after the top or bottom has occurred, similar to being Monday morning quarterback.
I look at the earnings forecasts to determine up/down cycles. Another good source is just read industry publications such as:

Automotive News
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Old 02-22-2018, 05:51 AM   #38
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Ford North America President Raj Nair to step down due to 'inappropriate behavior'

Oh wow, yet even more good news from Ford (SMH), he was President for all of 8 months. What a great job Hackett and other Ford management did with their selection to fill Field's seat. In the 8 months Nair found free time for "inappropriate behavior", maybe if he concentrated on improving the business Ford would have done better than 5% drop during his tenure as NA President, significantly below every other Peer in the industry. In same time GM was up nearly 20%, Volkswagen and Honda up 30%. Heck, even Nissan kicked it up 10%.

Inappropriate behavior is how he and Hackett have screwed the Ford shareholders with sub-par stock performance.
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Old 03-14-2018, 01:30 PM   #39
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Looking a bit better today ... what a difference an upgrade seems to make ?
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Old 03-14-2018, 02:51 PM   #40
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Looking a bit better today ... what a difference an upgrade seems to make ?
Ford owner here. One thing I have noticed is that when people talk about div yield, they do not account for the special div.
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