I agree with everything except that last sentence. I would be willing to bet FL real estate prices will increase, but nowhere near 100%. Maybe 100% over the cost of the cheapest short sale in the state, but not in the general market. That's, IMHO, wildly over-optimistic.
well, maybe my view is coloured by being in SWF.
for example, trulia is showing average sales price per sq ft at $75, now, in Fort Myers. (lot and building)
so, lets say we are talking your slightly above average 2000 sq ft house, thats $150000.
now, thats with the lot cost "'in"
assuming building lots return to a nearer to normal price of lets say $50k in ten years, the current average valuation of housing stock above ground (lot out) is about $100k for 2000 sq ft, or $50 per sq ft.
so, current building cost is what, $125 for mid range quality? and thats during a construction recession.
once things get moving again, and factor in inflation + rising energy costs + code creep + environmental regs + city fees, that construction cost could easily drift up to $150, so that 2000 sq ft building will cost 300k to build, plus 50k for the lot, you are at 350k to build a house that is selling for $150 now.
not to mention that 75% of the small builders were wiped out and those that remain will be extracting what economists call oligopolist "rents", and all that in an environment that is likely to be very conservative regarding construction finance for the next generation..or two.