Boehner: Raise SS age and means-test benefits

Good points ziggy and samclem.

A few more:
The SS tax is flat (certainly not progressive) and (as mentioned) capped.
It is levied only on earned income, not capital gains, interest, or dividends. The truly rich pay little or no SS tax. Anyone who is FI (no earned income) pays no SS tax.

It seems to me that SS is a program for the working poor and middle class, and it is paid for almost entirely by the working poor and middle class.

It is true that the benefits are progressive. However, deadbeats who pay nothing in, get no benefits at all.

As for being a good deal or not, how much would a COLA'd annuity combined with disability insurance cost you on the open market?

What's not to like? :D
 
As for being a good deal or not, how much would a COLA'd annuity combined with disability insurance cost you on the open market?
That's another aspect that allows one to see the moderately progressive benefit formula. Someone who is paying the maximum in SS every year might actually pay *less* for a COLA'd annuity and disability insurance on the open market than they pay into SS. But for someone earning (say) only 1/3 of the SS income cap, there's no comparison that SS is a much better deal. In that sense you could say higher incomes are "subsidizing" the COLA'd annuity costs for lower incomes because someone who pays twice as much in gets considerably less than twice the payout.
 
OK
You lost me here. A welfare program paid for by a very regressive tax? :confused:

Kind of stopped writing my point...

IF it becomes a welfare program ONLY... ie, only the middle class and poor get benefits... there will be more incentive to stop the program... because to make any kind of dent in the payments, you have to have the level of not gettting payments pretty low (maybe in the $100K range)... if it is over $250K... not much savings (I am talking income here... AGI... ) I don't think that there are a large number of people who are making that in retirement....

If it is asset based.... then you will also need to factor in the value of a pension... IOW, if you are getting $60K per year... that is worth $1 mill or whatever... so now.. where do you draw the line... if you think the public sector people who are getting an annuity from their job are howling about losing promised benefits now... what will happen if their SS is cut completely because they get so much from other sources...


My last comment... was that it is not a welfare program right now... even if you have income of $5 million per year.... you still get your SS check... not as much in percentage terms as the guy who made $60K... but you get one...

Better:confused:
 
Good points ziggy and samclem.

A few more:
The SS tax is flat (certainly not progressive) and (as mentioned) capped.
It is levied only on earned income, not capital gains, interest, or dividends. The truly rich pay little or no SS tax. Anyone who is FI (no earned income) pays no SS tax.

It seems to me that SS is a program for the working poor and middle class, and it is paid for almost entirely by the working poor and middle class.

It is true that the benefits are progressive. However, deadbeats who pay nothing in, get no benefits at all.

As for being a good deal or not, how much would a COLA'd annuity combined with disability insurance cost you on the open market?

What's not to like? :D


I would disagree that the truly rich do not pay into SS... most of them have earned income somewhere... a sch C, being on a board, etc. etc... lots of places where they can have 'wages'...

As I said.. when I did taxes... this one guy (and we are talking the 80s here) had $5 mill in dividends, $5 mill in cap gains... I forget about his sch C, but think it was in the $10 mill range... and $20K SS.... I found it odd at the time... like 'why does he need SS?'... now I know better...
 
I would disagree that the truly rich do not pay into SS... most of them have earned income somewhere... a sch C, being on a board, etc. etc... lots of places where they can have 'wages'...

Also, employer SS taxes are embedded in the price of the products we buy.
 
Also, employer SS taxes are embedded in the price of the products we buy.
[-]Of course.[/-]
Another good point.
Another way to say it is that employers just reduce salaries by the amount of the SS tax.
 
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(snip) What on earth are you talking about? If those guys up the scaffold are getting premium pay, it's for their trade skills, not because of the physical demands. (snip)
You're making the case that some types of work cannot be done effectively by older workers, and that because of this workers should be able to get their SS early. (snip)

I don't think that's the claim. I think the claim is simply that employers won't hire them.(snip)

Ziggy is right, I was referring mostly to the problem of age discrimination. If an older worker is able to keep up (and is able to convince the prospective employer of that ability), or works in a field where age discrimination is rare, they'll (probably) be able to get rehired before their unemployment benefits run out, and so won't be eligible for "emergency retirement" as I propose it.

And now I must be away. :greetings10: I'm off to put in a spot of "strenuous physical work" in the parental backyard—cool and rainy spring means the weeds have gotten a big head start this year. :nonono: We'll see whether or not that's a type of work that can be done effectively by this "older worker". :LOL: I think I'm still good for four or five hours, anyway.
 
(snip)What mission creep? Wasn't the original concept of Social Security that people who had worked for years should have enough to live on after their working days were over? (snip)

NOOOO.... it was supposed to be about 1/3 of what you need to live.... or a very minimum amount to buy food etc... YOU were supposed to save for the difference or have a pension... the creep is that people started to think it WAS a pension that people can live off of... so did the politicians...
I expressed myself poorly. I didn't mean to imply that the original concept of SS was that one would be able to live on that alone, and an actuarially equivalent benefit at that early age would surely not be enough for anyone to live on. It would have to be supplemented by part time employment, personal savings, employer pension, home business...whatever other resources were available.

I do think "emergency retirement" would be within the original mission of supplementing income for people past work, in which category I would include people who can't get hired at a living wage due to age discrimination.
 
Another way to say it is that employers just reduce salaries by the amount of the SS tax.

That doesn't follow. Would you say that employers reduce salaries due to the office/parking space needed for the employee?
 
Black Sabbath...

"I love you sweetleaf..." O0


smoking-smiley-7578.gif
..............;)
 
That doesn't follow. Would you say that employers reduce salaries due to the office/parking space needed for the employee?
To some degree, apples and oranges.

Parking lots and office space are more or less fixed costs that are necessary regardless of the current employment market. You still need the parking lot even when the economy stinks, and you can't really "downsize" a parking lot to save money. It's a relatively fixed overhead cost that isn't too dependent on macroeconomic factors.

Still, the question is: If employers didn't have to pay this tax, would they pass the "savings" to their employees to maintain their level of total compensation?

In a job market favorable to labor -- think late 1990s in tech here -- I would expect employers would pass on most of their tax savings to employees as a way to remain competitive and not lose their best employees.

In today's job market, employers can repeatedly screw their employees and the employees will come back begging for more, just grateful to have a job -- any job. So I do *not* think employers would pass on the tax savings to the employee as additional cash compensation in this economic climate. The market doesn't require it now. Just as it's allowed my Megacorp to not give out raises for four of the last six years despite doing very well through the recession. They simply don't need to pay out raises to stay competitive and encourage people to stay.
 
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Seems like the employer paid SS tax would be an important factor in deciding whether to outsource jobs overseas or not.
 
To some degree, apples and oranges.

Parking lots and office space are more or less fixed costs that are necessary regardless of the current employment market. You still need the parking lot even when the economy stinks, and you can't really "downsize" a parking lot to save money. It's a relatively fixed overhead cost that isn't too dependent on macroeconomic factors.

Still, the question is: If employers didn't have to pay this tax, would they pass the "savings" to their employees to maintain their level of total compensation?

In a job market favorable to labor -- think late 1990s in tech here -- I would expect employers would pass on most of their tax savings to employees as a way to remain competitive and not lose their best employees.

In today's job market, employers can repeatedly screw their employees and the employees will come back begging for more, just grateful to have a job -- any job. So I do *not* think employers would pass on the tax savings to the employee as additional cash compensation in this economic climate. The market doesn't require it now. Just as it's allowed my Megacorp to not give out raises for four of the last six years despite doing very well through the recession. They simply don't need to pay out raises to stay competitive and encourage people to stay.


I agree... not only would they not give it to the employees... a number have done across the board pay cuts to save money.... if matching SS was reduced... it would just go to the bottom line... the employee would still get the same paycheck and be happy...
 
Seems like the employer paid SS tax would be an important factor in deciding whether to outsource jobs overseas or not.


When I did cost studies on moving jobs overseas.... SS did not come up... it is total compensation... and even if you took away SS, the number still look good for outsourcing...

I know the rate for IT guys in NY was $150K to $200K all in.... India was $25K... (back when I did them..... not sure now)..
 
Seems like the employer paid SS tax would be an important factor in deciding whether to outsource jobs overseas or not.

Correct. When I was w*rking, I did more than one financial analysis involving replacing people with machines, or outsourcing work to non-employees. I always included the employer's share of SS/medicare in the costs of the employee option.

We had some workers who could be either employees or independent contractors. Both the company and the workers agreed that the ICs would need to get extra cash because of the way they paid SS/medicare taxes. It was a non-issue in negotiating. The economic impact of the tax is on the worker, regardless of who writes the checks to the gov't.
 
Wow. Put "Social Security" in the title and the thread gets long and fractured very quickly.

Back to the OP. I think that explicit means testing based on current income or assets is a very bad idea. It discourages savings. It generates a huge industry in arranging your financial life to qualify for the most SS benefit. (Virtually all American workers expect to retire someday, so they all would have an iterest in hiding assets and income from the gov't. Imagine all the "gifts" to children.)

Fortunately, any politician suggesting this has to eventually go from a vague "let's means test some benefits" to "here are my rules". Once you start writing rules down, the voters discover that he isn't just talking about "someone else" and they get upset.

(Note that your SS benefit is already "means tested", where the "means" is the income you earned while working, not how much of that income you saved.)

OTOH, indexing the Normal Retirement Age makes a lot of sense (Rep Paul Ryan has a reasonable propsal). Indexing the initial benefit to prices instead of wages can also help. IIRC, just these two items cover the long term SS deficits (but not the intermediate term).

The SS actuaries evaluate many possible changes here: Individual Changes Modifying Social Security
 
Does anyone have a link that would explain the proposal to privatize SS (I'm guessing ~ 8 years ago?)? I'm not sure it even hit the 'proposal' stage, or if it was just some general talk. At any rate, I didn't pay much attention then, and I'm curious if the plan made sense at all. All I recall was some (what seemed like knee-jerk) reaction that we'd all be 'risking' our money in the stock market and people's retirement could 'vanish overnight' - I imagine any serious plan allowed for a fairly conservative mix for people approaching retirement.

TIA - ERD50

You are probably thinking about Bush's commission which actually came up with three similar proposals. Bush never officially endorsed any one of them. I'd guess that was a political calculation.

Look at the Jan 31, 2002 propsal here: Proposals to change Social Security

My Cliff's Notes version goes like this:
A) Reduce benefits enough to make SS sustainable over the long term as a pay-as-you-go system.
B) Borrow some money to fund "personal accounts". Figure the interest paid on the borrowed money is less than the investment earnings in the accounts, so workers come out ahead.

I'd say that A is okay (I've forgotten the details) and B is silly.
 
Indexing the initial benefit to prices instead of wages can also help. IIRC, just these two items cover the long term SS deficits (but not the intermediate term).
Historically this would be a big help because historically wage growth beat inflation. Is this happening much any more? Will this occur any time in the next decade or so with what almost everyone expects to be long-term high unemployment and all the pay cuts and pay freezes going on?

If wages fail to keep up with inflation for a while (mine have failed to do so for at least 5-6 years if not close to a decade), this could actually hurt more than it helps.
 
Historically this would be a big help because historically wage growth beat inflation. Is this happening much any more? Will this occur any time in the next decade or so with what almost everyone expects to be long-term high unemployment and all the pay cuts and pay freezes going on?

If wages fail to keep up with inflation for a while (mine have failed to do so for at least 5-6 years if not close to a decade), this could actually hurt more than it helps.
The good thing about indexing to wages is that it is harder for the government to cheat. They can play with the CPI, but the wage index should be a simple, transparent statistical measure.
 
Historically this would be a big help because historically wage growth beat inflation. Is this happening much any more? Will this occur any time in the next decade or so with what almost everyone expects to be long-term high unemployment and all the pay cuts and pay freezes going on?

If wages fail to keep up with inflation for a while (mine have failed to do so for at least 5-6 years if not close to a decade), this could actually hurt more than it helps.

Good point. The SS projections assume 1.1% real growth in wages because that's the historic trend. It hasn't happened recently. Hard to say what will happen in the future.

Their history is in Table V.B1 here: 2009 Trustees Report: Section V.B, Economic assumptions & methods
 
I don't see the house or senate offering to cut their retirement!



I've made it pretty clear," House Minority Leader John Boehner said, "that if we are a majority and I'm lucky enough to be speaker, I'm going to run the House differently than it's being run today and differently than it was run under Republicans in the past."...
...

Nor did he seem eager to tip his hand on the terms of entitlement reform. In his interview with the Tribune-Review, Boehner volunteered that the Social Security retirement age might need to be raised to 70 for younger workers but he would go no further.
Younger meaning anyone born after 1953.


washingtonpost.com
 
This guy really knows how to campaign for votes!

He has two GOP opponents and a Dem.


Here is a US Senate Report on the topic including options: http://aging.senate.gov/letters/ssreport2010.pdf

Thank you for posting the link to the US Senate Report.

While I did not read it, instead skimmed the relevant sections, my impression is that there is (a) no mention of means testing as a solution, and (b) the areas they recommend to curb short falls in SS fall into several categories (i) fiddling with COLA, (ii) FICA caps and (iii) extending retirement ages.

All of which make perfect sense to me.
 
You're making the case that some types of work cannot be done effectively by older workers, and that because of this workers should be able to get their SS early. I'm saying three things in response:
-- When people set upon a career path (or blunder into one) they know the conditions under which they'll be working. If the career path is short, that's simply part of the deal.

I can testify from personal experience that this is not always the case. I fell into land surveying out of sheer desperation. I had been underemployed and job hunting for two years at that point, and I would have accepted literally any job that was legal. I had never worked out of doors before, and had no idea beforehand what was involved or whether I would be able to do it even over the short term. The possible length of the career path (except in the sense that a City job was considered more secure than the private sector) didn't even come onto my radar screen.
-- If a worker enters into a trade with a more restricted pool of those capable of doing the work (whether it is pole dancing or hard physical labor) he will receive higher pay than if the pool of eligible workers were broader. No, it;s not the only factor, but it is a factor. With fewer workers capable of doing the work, pay is higher than it would otherwise be (because of lawful discrimination). The young buck benefits from this, he shouldn't demand recompense later when he's too old to do it.
If this is the case, why do laborers make such low pay? I contend the limiting factor is the skill, more than the physical strenuousness of the job. High skill + high physical stress=high pay. High skill + low physical stress=high pay. Low skill + high physical stress=low pay.
-- SS shouldn't be used as surrogate unemployment insurance.
I am not suggesting SS as unemployment insurance. If that were the case I would not have included the over-50 qualification.

(snip) it's not that bad of an idea. I just don't see how, when we are living longer and staying healthier, and at the same time SS is in financial trouble it makes sense to encourage people to quit work earlier and to thereby stop paying into SS earlier. There's no fixed pool of jobs out there --industry makes more of them all the time, and they'll create still more of them when the cost of labor goes down. The main thing that causes the cost of labor to go down is having more people looking for work. Trying to "spread the work around" (by reducing the number of workers or the amount they work--as France did with their famous reduced work week) is the path to misery and very low national economic growth.
You are misstating what I have proposed. My idea would add no additional financial stress to SS because the suggested payment would be actuarially equivalent to what that person is already due to receive. It does not encourage people to quit voluntarily; if they did so they would not be eligible for unemployment insurance and hence could not meet the qualifications for "emergency retirement". I agree that there is no fixed pool of jobs, but disagree that jobs will be automatically created when wages are forced down. If there is no demand for the product of that labor, it won't be produced, and if it is not produced, no jobs will be created no matter how cheaply people are willing to work. It will not reduce contributions into SS because it would only be available to people who are already unemployed, so they aren't contributing to the system anyway.

What's my fix? Gradually raise the retirement age so that a person at FRA can expect to get about 12 years of payments (which is where we started in the 30's). Keep the option for reduced payouts starting a few years earlier. (snip)
My proposal applies only to older workers who have been unable to find new jobs. The older they get and the longer they have been out of work, the less likely it is that they will find a job comparable to the one they had, and I would guess, the less likely they will be able to find a job that pays enough to live on, or perhaps, find any job at all. Your proposal does not address the issue of age discrimination, the third strand of the Gordian Knot, in fact by moving retirement age ahead it increases the number of years that a worker is vulnerable to it.

Here's a thought experiment. Let's take a hypothetical worker who has been laid off at age 50 and (after a period of unsuccessful job hunting) has exhausted his unemployment benefits.

My proposal: Eligible for SS; benefit is actuarially equivalent to what would have been paid at FRA. No additional cost to the SS system for benefits paid to this worker. Worker able to turn to self-employment, part time or lower-wage work which does not fully replace the income from the previous job by itself, but does do so when combined with emergency retirement. Probably creates less payment input to SS and Federal income tax than would have been the case prior to job loss, but more than if the lower paying job had not been accepted. (This assumes that people who work and receive SS at the same pay SS tax. Is that correct? If there are disincentives to work in the treatment of earnings additional to SS, the proposal would need to be tweaked to remove them.) Not eligible for welfare, possibly eligible for social services such as food stamps, health care subsidies etc.

Your proposal: Not eligible for SS for until 10-15 years after job loss, depending on how much the retirement ages are moved ahead. Not eligible for unemployment benefits (they've been used up) and little likelihood of future eligibility since no job offers have been made. May turn to black market/cash economy for income. In either case, provides zero input to SS, creates zero federal income tax revenue, and is probably eligible for welfare and other social services.

Unless I've missed something in your proposal, ISTM that this unemployed worker will create less revenue coming into the system and more expenses in the form of welfare and social services than if allowed early access to SS benefits which are going to be paid anyway.
 
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