I would hesitate to make any judgement or prediction at this time, or even to attempt to build an overview. The world economy is like a delicate crystal vase that has been dropped and lies in tiny pieces.
Overlying all of the monetary aspects, a mixed political structure, which, like the structure of the EU, has grown and adjusted over many years. Even here, the politics are not limited to Europe, but a framework for life that extends throughout the entire world.
If you followed the back and forth of the referendum during the night, you saw an exit poll analysis using word count. There were two words that predicted the result. For the "Stay", the word was economy. For the "Leave", the word was immigration.
Extending that emphasis to the rest of the countries in the EU, (particularly Germany), and then looking ahead to to financial recovery, could rattle the theory that the financials would be just a blip. Germany in particular is in a sensitive position.
Looking at the numbers coming in the immediate aftermath of Brexit, while the banks are taking the brunt of the losses, an equally worrisome across the board shock to stocks in almost every category.
The key to recovery, and avoidance of an extended recession, would look to be in the rapid diplomatic and political actions of the EU nations. Failure to come together here, could extend to the world economy, which has been increasingly tied to the strength of Europe (as well as the United States.).
So much for the downside. London remains a dominant financial center, which bodes well for recovery, not for investment, but for the ability to bring together the financial leaders of Germany, France, and the other powerhouses of Europe. The key to recovery will be time. The world economy will not stand still... waiting. Hopefully, a quick agreement to bite the bullet and go forward (ala the US Bank Bailout) will avoid a possible tumbledown.
The final piece to recovery will be the people. There, only time will tell.
So much for putting thoughts into words.
Overlying all of the monetary aspects, a mixed political structure, which, like the structure of the EU, has grown and adjusted over many years. Even here, the politics are not limited to Europe, but a framework for life that extends throughout the entire world.
If you followed the back and forth of the referendum during the night, you saw an exit poll analysis using word count. There were two words that predicted the result. For the "Stay", the word was economy. For the "Leave", the word was immigration.
Extending that emphasis to the rest of the countries in the EU, (particularly Germany), and then looking ahead to to financial recovery, could rattle the theory that the financials would be just a blip. Germany in particular is in a sensitive position.
Looking at the numbers coming in the immediate aftermath of Brexit, while the banks are taking the brunt of the losses, an equally worrisome across the board shock to stocks in almost every category.
The key to recovery, and avoidance of an extended recession, would look to be in the rapid diplomatic and political actions of the EU nations. Failure to come together here, could extend to the world economy, which has been increasingly tied to the strength of Europe (as well as the United States.).
So much for the downside. London remains a dominant financial center, which bodes well for recovery, not for investment, but for the ability to bring together the financial leaders of Germany, France, and the other powerhouses of Europe. The key to recovery will be time. The world economy will not stand still... waiting. Hopefully, a quick agreement to bite the bullet and go forward (ala the US Bank Bailout) will avoid a possible tumbledown.
The final piece to recovery will be the people. There, only time will tell.
So much for putting thoughts into words.
