Brexit!

[Totoro]

My Easyjet stock jumped as well. Keep on travelling folks.

 

[Alan]

Interesting times indeed. Next stop the Supreme Court. Brings the possibility of a General Election one step closer and almost certainly more volatility to the £.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/03/high-court-brexit-ruling-what-does-it-all-mean

Can this stop Brexit?
Almost certainly not. But it does make the position much more confused. MPs are talking of the high court triggering a constitutional crisis without any indication of how to get out of it.

It also risks driving an even bigger wedge between leavers and remainers, particularly since the leavers are likely to interpret this as one more desperate attempt by the Metropolitan liberal elite to thwart the will of the people (a suspicion that is going to shape the thinking of a lot of MPs).
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Most MPs supported remain, but most represent constituencies that voted leave. This will go right to the heart of how the British constitution works: whether MPs should vote according to the wishes of their constituents or in their best judgement (leaving the electorate to decide whether to keep them in a job at the next election).

Having said that, leave was the majority view in nearly 70% of Labour seats for example, so it would probably be electoral suicide for the party’s MPs to rebel (or perhaps even abstain). Such a move could open the gates to Ukip.

 

[brett]

What is the best guess here for the GBP?

Thinking of stopping on a trip this spring. Our currency (CAD) is not great but GBP still looks reasonable to us. In the past we have anywhere from 1.30 to 2.20.

 

[jim584672]

"Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson told a London awards ceremony on Wednesday night that the UK would make “a Titanic success” of Brexit."

Too funny. What a poor choice of words.

 

[Nemo2]

Too funny. What a poor choice of words.

Or a prophetic choice, (not so) subtly couched as an ostensibly positive one?

 

[Alan]

What is the best guess here for the GBP?

Thinking of stopping on a trip this spring. Our currency (CAD) is not great but GBP still looks reasonable to us. In the past we have anywhere from 1.30 to 2.20.

When it dropped to $1.30 early in the year I was all over it and transferred a bunch of cash ready for our 6 month stay. We had an offer on a house accepted a few weeks ago and I was able to transfer a whole load more at $1.20 (I missed the short dip below that). I now have another $120k to move over before January 10th and although it is back up to $1.25 I'm holding off for now as I think it may settle below that.

However, it may continue to strengthen, but I'm still really pleased at having these low rates at a time I need to move over a lot of money.

 

[MichaelB]

When it dropped to $1.30 early in the year I was all over it and transferred a bunch of cash ready for our 6 month stay. We had an offer on a house accepted a few weeks ago and I was able to transfer a whole load more at $1.20 (I missed the short dip below that). I now have another $120k to move over before January 10th and although it is back up to $1.25 I'm holding off for now as I think it may settle below that.

However, it may continue to strengthen, but I'm still really pleased at having these low rates at a time I need to move over a lot of money.

Nothing so good as when good fortune meets careful preparation, eh?

 

[REWahoo]

Nothing so good as when good fortune meets careful preparation, eh?

+1

Dumb luck works, too.

 

[fh2000]

So, will they bring David Cameron back?

 

[Totoro]

However, it may continue to strengthen, but I'm still really pleased at having these low rates at a time I need to move over a lot of money.

Nuance: GBP isn't really strengthening, USD is weakening.

Not that it matters for you

 

[W2R]

Nothing so good as when good fortune meets careful preparation, eh?

+2

Alan, this is a once-in-a-lifetime amazingly good stroke of luck! Congratulations on that. I do hope that the pound dips again before January 10th, just long enough for you to end up with a tremendously good deal on your house over there.

As for Brexit, I don't really understand about these things but reading the Guardian article that Alan linked to, it seems like the previous vote on Brexit is just the first step in a long process that will ultimately lead to Brexit happening.

 

[Alan]

+2

Alan, this is a once-in-a-lifetime amazingly good stroke of luck! Congratulations on that. I do hope that the pound dips again before January 10th, just long enough for you to end up with a tremendously good deal on your house over there.

As REW says, pure dumb luck. My US pensions are our main source of income and they are fixed, no COLA, but so far this year it feels like a 33% raise.

To hold the referendum in the first place parliament voted overwhelmingly in favor (6-1) but didn't have the legal language in place to make it binding which is why this legal challenge has held up in the High Court.

I think Brexit will happen even though we may have to go through the agony of passing a bill in the Commons and having it modified or veto'ed by the Lords, back to the Commons, back to the Lords, possibly a General Election and we could be looking at March 2018 instead of 2017 so I think the pound is going to be in the basement for some time to come. Or the Supreme Court could override the High Court in December, then possibly the Remainers may ironically take it to the European Court which the UK is still under.

ETA
We are currently in Southampton, setting sail for the good old USA tomorrow where they have a much simpler electoral system. (I'll be off-line for about 8 days)

 

[Alan]

November 5th tomorrow when we celebrate the failed attempt to blow up parliament in 1605...

 

[samclem]

. . . then possibly the Remainers may ironically take it to the European Court which the UK is still under.

Wow. I would think there would be some very deep and long-term animosity created if the European Court somehow gets to have the final word on this, and they say "remain." I'm sure the average UK citizen never imagined that any separation from the EU was subject to gaining EU approval.

 

[Alan]

Wow. I would think there would be some very deep and long-term animosity created if the European Court somehow gets to have the final word on this, and they say "remain." I'm sure the average UK citizen never imagined that any separation from the EU was subject to gaining EU approval.

The European court could only rule to say that the Royal Perogative cannot be used to leave the EU and that only Parliament, not the current government, can change U.K. Laws, since to leave the EU means changing U.K. Law. (UK law was changed when the UK joined the EU some 40 years ago and that Act must be repealed)

 

[Nemo2]

"The first thing we do, let's kill all the lawyers."

 

[Alan]

"The first thing we do, let's kill all the lawyers."

Those darn lawyers, going around interpreting the law.

 

[ziggy29]

Wow. I would think there would be some very deep and long-term animosity created if the European Court somehow gets to have the final word on this, and they say "remain." I'm sure the average UK citizen never imagined that any separation from the EU was subject to gaining EU approval.

True. That said (and this is not an invitation to debate the question), I wonder if states that joined the Union before the 1860s knew their decision to join up would be irrevocable; that is, they had no right to unilaterally choose to secede from the union if they decided it no longer worked for them. In many ways that would be a similar dynamic.

 

[Meadbh]

Why is it OK to discuss the politics of Brexit, but not the politics of the US election?

 

[ziggy29]

Why is it OK to discuss the politics of Brexit, but not the politics of the US election?

Huh? If this is directed at me we're not talking about politics at all. Just pondering an historical parallel concerning pre-Civil War America, nothing more or less. History, not politics. It's politics when you are encouraging or advocating that people take a position on current events, and argue it.

 

[Nemo2]

Those darn lawyers, going around interpreting the law.

Yep, that Shakespeare, no sense of propriety.

 

[Meadbh]

Huh? If this is directed at me.....

It isn't directed at you or anyone else. I just find it curious that this thread has not attracted any moderator warnings, while are no threads on the US election. I presume the moderators are doing hourly sweeps to eliminate any that pop up (which is a good thing).

 

[NW-Bound]

Why is it OK to discuss the politics of Brexit, but not the politics of the US election?

There are not many Brits here, and they are not vocal. And I don't know about Canadians or other Europeans, but Americans do not have much vested interest in British politics.

On the other hand, the whole world watches US politics, much more than I myself do (I am sick of it). Good grief! Don't they have something better to do? Like shopping for their health insurance?

 

[Meadbh]

There are not many Brits here, and they are not vocal. And I don't know about Canadians or other Europeans, but Americans do not have much vested interest in British politics.

On the other hand, the whole world watches US politics, much more than I myself do (I am sick of it). Good grief! Don't they have something better to do? Like shopping for their health insurance?

Shopping for health insurance: 0 minutes
Watching US election: 2 years

 

[Alan]

There are not many Brits here, and they are not vocal. And I don't know about Canadians or other Europeans, but Americans do not have much vested interest in British politics.
)

Exactly. If I wanted to turn this into a partisan debate I'd have to argue with myself, then report myself.

Brexit is of interest here in the same way Grexit and the Greek elections were relevant in that economic disruption and exchange rates are meaningful to some here. We had long discussions on Grexit which in the end didn't happen. Brexit almost certainly will happen so the possibility of a collapse in the economy of a G7 country is certainly of interest to some folks here.

We have come a long way with Europe since joining the EU 40 years ago and I hope we can part as friends not enemies. Before the UK joined the EU there was no defined mechanism for a member country to leave and article 50 was created on the insistence of the UK.

We board the QM2 today so no internet for the next 8 days. Never mind Brexit or the US elections, how am I going to survive?