U.S. Demand for Electricity Declined in 2019 and ...

[aja8888]

Here's the lowdown on power generation and use for 2019 and earlier. Also, some interesting predictions about new power plants coming online (and shutting down) in 2020 and how the power will be generated:

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/01/15/u...-decade-but-2020-capacity-additions-are-wild/

Electricity sales in the US isn’t exactly a high-growth business. In 2019, total electricity sales (in gigawatt hours) to ultimate customers are estimated to have fallen; through the first 10 months, according to the EIA’s latest Electricity Monthly, total electricity sales declined 2.9% from the same period in 2018. The only sector to which electricity sales increased – and just by 0.6% – was transportation, a tiny sector covering subways and other electric mass-transit systems. Sales to the other sectors fell, in order of magnitude of the sector: residential (-2.4%), commercial (-2.0%), and industrial (-4.8%).

In terms of annual sales of electricity to ultimate customers from 2008 through 2019, an image of stagnation emerges. Based on the full-year 2019 estimate, electricity sales in gigawatt hours over the 11 years from 2008 through 2019 ticked up only 0.6%, interrupted by some bigger increases and declines in between.

Please read the comments below the article too!

 

[RobbieB]

Cool. Good to know we're becoming more efficient. All those LED bulbs are helping.

I used to light the garage with (4) 4 foot double florescent tube (34 watt each) shop light fixtures which were very good compared to (2) 100 watt incandescent which were so dim you were in danger when using tools.

Now I have (8) 20 watt LED's which are better than the shoplights and use even less.

 

[Alan]

Cool. Good to know we're becoming more efficient. All those LED bulbs are helping.

I used to light the garage with (4) 4 foot double florescent tube (34 watt each) shop light fixtures which were very good compared to (2) 100 watt incandescent which were so dim you were in danger when using tools.

Now I have (8) 20 watt LED's which are better than the shoplights and use even less.

Maybe my arithmetic is not too good but 8x20 is more than 4x34.

 

[NW-Bound]

Maybe my arithmetic is not too good but 8x20 is more than 4x34.

I thought so too, but RobbieB said the fluorescent fixtures were double.

So, it was 4x2x34 watts.

 

[Alan]

I thought so too, but RobbieB said the fluorescent fixtures were double.

So, it was 4x2x34 watts.

Probably correct, I missed that.

 

[RobbieB]

8 x 34 = 272 watts florescent (plus ballast)

8 x 20 = 160 LED total

Who's bad at math?

 

[Alan]

Who's bad at math?

I am.

 

[REWahoo]

I am.

In your defense, Janet didn't say there would be math when you signed up.

 

[RobbieB]

Numbers is hard.

But the result is the garage has the best lighting it ever had. The LED fixtures are tiny and don't take up area like the shoplights did and the light is better dispersed. No on delay and it looks like daytime out there. Another bene is I installed fixtures with pull chains so they can be turned off individually if desired.

 

[NW-Bound]

I remember reading somewhere that LEDs are only as efficient as fluorescent bulbs.

Search the Web again, and saw some info on how fluorescent efficiency varies between types. The best can match LEDs, but some are only 2/3 as efficient.

I still like LEDs because the light is warmer (compared to tubes), plus they are instant-on. Unfortunately, I stocked up on CFLs and long tubes, and it will take a while to use them up.

 

[davebarnes]

Unfortunately, I stocked up on CFLs and long tubes, and it will take a while to use them up.

Sunk cost fallacy.

 

[GrayHare]

Notice the quote says sales are down, not consumption. These sales don't include things like home solar.

 

[NW-Bound]

Sunk cost fallacy.

?

As mentioned, these fluorescents are just as energy efficient as LEDs, despite some drawbacks.

Meanwhile, many early LEDs do not last that long, particularly the expensive high-wattage bulbs.

 

[Midpack]

Sounded like good news, but tempered in that the “decrease” followed a spike in 2018, so the decline was a reversion to mean. But at least demand isn’t increasing, that’s nice.

Then I was happy to see cleaner power sources coming on, but I guess I need to wait and see the long term trend because of below. Hopefully we’ll continue to trend cleaner, as I’m less hopeful we’ll significantly reduce demand. Guess I’m having a glass half empty day, sorry...

Good read regardless, thanks.

Part of the reason for the record addition of wind and solar power capacity is the phase-out of tax credits at the end of 2020. From then forward, wind and solar will have to stand on their own two feet.

 

[aja8888]

Notice the lack of oil fired power plants in the U.S.? One commenter stated he thought that Hawaii was the only state that operates oil fired plants.

 

[Ronstar]

Exelon is threatening to shut down numerous nuclear plants in Illinois. Demand is probably way down because of the mass exodus.

 

[RobbieB]

The traditional "long tube" florescents had a good long life but those CFL's are another thing. I've had a lot more short failures with them than LEDs. I don't think I've had an LED ever fail so far and it been over 5 years. And those CFL's get hot too unlike the long tubes.

 

[JustCurious]

Sounded like good news, but tempered in that the “decrease” followed a spike in 2018, so the decline was a reversion to mean. But at least demand isn’t increasing, that’s nice.

Keep in mind that the population has continued to increase, so that means demand is actually falling on a per capita basis.

 

[Midpack]

I still like LEDs because the light is warmer (compared to tubes), plus they are instant-on. Unfortunately, I stocked up on CFLs and long tubes, and it will take a while to use them up.

We had lots of LEDs in our old house, just moved into a new house with all CFL’s. Waiting for them to come fully on is really annoying, but I can’t bring myself to throw out working CFL’s to replace with LED’s so we’re stuck waiting - first world problem. I’ll be pleased as the CFL’s fail, but I expect it will take years...

 

[Out of Steam]

We had lots of LEDs in our old house, just moved into a new house with all CFL’s. Waiting for them to come fully on is really annoying, but I can’t bring myself to throw out working CFL’s to replace with LED’s so we’re stuck waiting - first world problem. I’ll be pleased as the CFL’s fail, but I expect it will take years...

Our new house had a combination of CFLs and incandescent bulbs. I replaced the incandescent bulbs with LEDs, and shifted the remaining CFLs into places where they would be less noticeable or annoying.

 

[HFWR]

Sunk cost fallacy.

Not math again! [emoji15]

 

[Bamaman]

In our region, TVA is the electrical company and the largest power producer in the U.S. Politics has gotten in the way of power production and the Federal Government has ordered TVA to one by one shut down coal power production. The last nuclear power plant unit they'll ever build has been completed, and it looks like they'll be switching over predominantly to natural gas production.

We have just a couple of places in the Midsouth with enough wind for a windmill, so that's not a factor. We have seen some solar farms built locally, and they're tying into TVA's production grid (wiring) because they would not be productive having to pay $2 million a mile to be hooked up to the grid.

We still use hydro power production, but just one dam out of 33 TVA dams produces any appreciable electricity, and that's about 1/2 the juice of one nuclear generator.

My grandfathers, two uncles, two aunts and my father retired from TVA. And another uncle was chief dispatcher controlling the electrical grid for the Eastern U.S. And they were all big supporters of nuclear generated electricity. They're all gone now, but would be very disappointed to see perfectly decent coal fired generation scrapped.

No matter where they say the industry's going, remember that U.S. industry is very dependent on the availability of reasonably priced electricity. Without it our quality of life and jobs will greatly suffer.

 

[NW-Bound]

The traditional "long tube" florescents had a good long life but those CFL's are another thing. I've had a lot more short failures with them than LEDs. I don't think I've had an LED ever fail so far and it been over 5 years. And those CFL's get hot too unlike the long tubes.

I bought one of the big 100W-equivalent LEDs and paid close to $10. It lasted less than 2 years, in a fixture that gets turned on perhaps 4 hours/day. Other than that, I also have 2 60W-equivalent LEDs fail after about the same usage, but these were not as expensive.

LEDs are cheaper now, I am sure, but do not know if longevity has improved.

We had lots of LEDs in our old house, just moved into a new house with all CFL’s. Waiting for them to come fully on is really annoying, but I can’t bring myself to throw out working CFL’s to replace with LED’s so we’re stuck waiting - first world problem. I’ll be pleased as the CFL’s fail, but I expect it will take years...

At the current attrition rate, my stock of CFLs is steadily dwindling.

And only a few long tubes of fluorescent left, and I will be buying LED replacements.

Not math again! [emoji15]

No math needed. I do not save much electricity by swapping out CFLs with LEDs, so no hurry. When fluorescents are burned out, in go the LEDs. It's simple.

 

[GalaxyBoy]

I started my engineering career in commercial nuclear power. I recall in college how they kept repeating that electricity demand followed GNP growth in lockstep - always had, always would. I also recall when the first power plant I worked on got its operating permit in the early '80s and it would expire in 2018, an impossibly far-off year. Of course, they've extended that license, but all those plants are long in the tooth and represent a huge chunk of generating capacity (which doesn't emit greenhouse gases, if I may say, although the entire fuel cycle, construction, maintenance, etc. certainly does). They can't last but so many more years, I would think.

Oh well, I got laid off from that business one time too many in 1993 and started working on "regular" buildings, but noocyoular was first love.

 

[mountainsoft]

Cool. Good to know we're becoming more efficient. All those LED bulbs are helping.

I used to light the garage with (4) 4 foot double florescent tube (34 watt each) shop light fixtures which were very good compared to (2) 100 watt incandescent which were so dim you were in danger when using tools.

Now I have (8) 20 watt LED's which are better than the shoplights and use even less.

All of the lights in our house are LED now, except for a few incandescent bulbs on old dimmers. We rarely turn them on, so power consumption from those is minimal. At this point it would not be cost effective to replace those dimmers with LED compatible dimmers.

I still have 10 fluorescent twin-bulb fixtures in my garage. When I installed those LED's were still way too expensive. However, mine have T8 bulbs and electronic ballasts so they turn on instantly, even in cold weather. If it's really cold they dim slightly when I first turn them on, but they come to full brightness before I can get started on anything. I don't spend enough time in the garage to justify switching to LED's at this point.