The Roaring 2000's

[GTM]

For those who may be familiar with Harry Dent and his economic and market theories relating mostly with demographics:

Have you read any of his books or his newsletters?
Have you followed them through the years?

If so how have you done?

I am familair with some of his work but have not drawn any real conclusions.

Would be interested in any opinions.

 

[wabmester]

Ah, yes, DOW 40000 Harry. Personally, I think he's a crackpot, but I have a feeling he's going to be accidently right again.

Take GW Bush's new Ownership Society, low taxes, deficit spending, easy monetary policy, and you've got the ingredients for a serious boom. Of course, it'll be relatively short-lived. And then the Giant Chickens will come home to roost just as we begin our demographic decline, and we just might have the ingredients for a bust like no other.

 

[Cut-Throat]

For those who may be familiar with Harry Dent and his economic and market theories relating mostly with demographics:

Have you read any of his books or his newsletters?
Have you followed them through the years?

If so how have you done?

I am familair with some of his work but have not drawn any real conclusions.

Would be interested in any opinions.

I think Dent is a bookseller. He had a good book about the 90's the great Boom ahead based on demographics. First half was interesting, the second half was repetitive.

The Roaring 2000s is pure trash! He's selling books.

 

[Cut-Throat]

Ah, yes, DOW 40000 Harry. Personally, I think he's a crackpot, but I have a feeling he's going to be accidently right again.

I just heard ***** choke on his Breakfast!

 

[brewer12345]

Ah, yes, DOW 40000 Harry.   Personally, I think he's a crackpot, but I have a feeling he's going to be accidently right again.

Take GW Bush's new Ownership Society, low taxes, deficit spending, easy monetary policy, and you've got the ingredients for a serious boom.   Of course, it'll be relatively short-lived.   And then the Giant Chickens will come home to roost just as we begin our demographic decline, and we just might have the ingredients for a bust like no other.

Yeah, I generally agree. I'd look for a big rally over the next 6 months, then A lot depends on how well the economy recovers and whether Bush continues to leave a gaping hole in the federal budget. In any case, I am steadily diversifying away from US assets, although I will still target about 50% of total to US stocks and bonds.

 

[unclemick]

Hmmmm - I'm reading David Dreman's 1982 book (library) on Contrarian Investing. He goes thru the rise and fall of investment guru's of the 60's, 70's and 80's.

The poor misguided fool thought people should be buying good low P/E common stocks in 1982 - instead of gold, silver, collectibles, fixed instruments, etc. WE ALL KNOW HOW THAT TURNED OUT - heh, heh,heh.

 

[Michael]

He might have a point about broad trends, but he completely missed predicting the post Y2K bear.  Despite demographic trends, the market could perform poorly well before 2008 due to other factors.  Demographics is only one factor of many that affect the market.

Harry seems to have realized this himself.  In his newest book, he now states that the decennial cycle is more important than demographics.  This seems to be his explanation for the post Y2K bear.  Markets customarily do poorly in the first few years of most decades.