Hey market watchers

[GTM]

Do you track your investments on software such as Quicken or Microsoft Money.

What type of flucations do you see in your portfolio's on good days vs bad days vs OK days?
A big up day in the market may bring a portfolio up $5-10K, a down day ($5k or more).

What types of swings to you experience and how do you feel about them?

 

[justin]

a big swing - $1k-$2k. Haven't seen 2k gain or loss in a day yet, but very close. All stock portfolio, but diversified with int'l and indexes.

Swings don't matter. 20-40 yr horizon.

 

[Sheryl]

Do you track your investments on software such as Quicken or Microsoft Money.

What type of flucations do you see in your portfolio's on good days vs bad days vs OK days?
A big up day in the market may bring a portfolio up $5-10K, a down day ($5k or more).

What types of swings to you experience and how do you feel about them?

Don't you really have to talk percentages? a $5 -10k swing is much scarier on $100,000 than it is on $1,000,000.

I see my "number" fluctuate 1-2% fairly regularly, up to 3-4% when things are jumping around a lot. I always look (it's the first thing on my homepage, I HAVE to look) but I don't really sweat it. When numbers are down I try to find something to buy, when numbers are up, I bask in the glory.

 

[haha]

Don't you really have to talk percentages?  a $5 -10k swing is much scarier on $100,000 than it is on $1,000,000.

I see my "number" fluctuate 1-2% fairly regularly, up to 3-4% when things are jumping around a lot.  I always look (it's the first thing on my homepage, I HAVE to look) but I don't really sweat it.    When numbers are down I try to find something to buy, when numbers are up, I bask in the glory.   

I caught a $6500 pop in one stock today. (20%) Unfortunately, I have seen a silmilar moves to the downside all too often.
Ha

 

[brewer12345]

I will not infrequently see 1 to 2% moves in my portfolio from day to day. This is a lot less than it used to be, since I have diversified as my portfolio has grown. Lately, I have been buying less volatile stuff, like bonds, preferreds, etc., so total portfolio volatility has dropped. Still, yesterday I had a 4% drop in my largest position. The total portfolio only dropped roughly 1/2%.

 

[wildcat]

% is probably a better measure since some of us have smaller eggs. October I was down around 4%. Not a big deal. It all depends on your tolerance.

I tried Quicken and it was a pain in the a!!. Just ask TboneAl.

 

[greg]

brewer: I've been on the prowl for a CEF filled with long-term treasuries. Any ideas?

--Greg

 

[brewer12345]

brewer:  I've been on the prowl for a CEF filled with long-term treasuries.  Any ideas?

--Greg

Well, there's TLT, but you won't get it at a discount to NAV. There are numerous CEFs loaded with AAA-rated insured munis that are quite long term and trading at a discount, but most of them are leveraged. Not sure if that's what you had in mind.

I've tip-toed into some exchange-traded preferreds lately: MFA and ANH. The market is spooked on them, but I can't imagine a scenario under which they would ever be impaired barring fraud. I'm also looking at PFX, SCT preferred, and ANH preferred.

 

[justin]

I'll modify my response above. On a percentage basis, I see a 1% gain/loss at least monthly I'd guess. I haven't seen a 2% gain or loss in the last few years (since 9/11/2001 maybe?). Almost 100% of my portfolio in stock mutual funds and almost zero individual stocks.

 

[TromboneAl]

I use Quicken. As Wildcat mentioned, I absolutely hate it, but there's no reasonable alternative. From online forum searches, it looks like Money is just as bad, and there's no easy way to transfer my existing data.

I check the value of my investments every day, though I try not to. Ideally, I'd check once a quarter or so, but it's not going to happen.

Yes, looking in percentage terms is smarter, but there's nothing like the fun of seeing that you lost or made $8,000 in one day.

 

[Cut-Throat]

I use Quicken. As Wildcat mentioned, I absolutely hate it, but there's no reasonable alternative. From online forum searches, it looks like Money is just as bad, and there's no easy way to transfer my existing data.

I've also used Quicken for about 12 years. It started out great and has ended up pretty sorry. The basic of bugs don't get fixed.

I did try Microsoft Money on their 'Trial Basis'. I used their Conversion Program from Quicken to Money. It picked up about 1/3 of my data and just 'skipped' most of it! - No thanks!

 

[Nords]

Do you track your investments on software such as Quicken or Microsoft Money.

Search the older threads for the word "Quicken" and you get a lot of hits.  We'd all love to change to something that had the same tracking capabilities without the conversion/upgrade hassles.

What type of flucations do you see in your portfolio's on good days vs bad days vs OK days?

IMO good days fluctuate up and bad days fluctuate down.  OK days should go up too!

What types of swings to you experience and how do you feel about them?

Swings of 1-2% either direction are fairly frequent-- a couple times per week.  Occasionally, over a quarter or two, we'll be down 5-10% and think "Hmmm."  When subsequent quarters put us back in the black by 5-10% my spouse's usual comment is "Sell!" but I think she's just basking in the warm glow of accomplishment afforded by avoiding yet another day of real work.

Every once in a great while we'll see a series of swings that puts us in a new position-- up or down-- where I'll realize "Hey, that's more than a year of my old salary!" But neither direction makes me want to go back to work.

We don't pay as much attention to the portfolio as we do to individual holdings.  When something goes up 10-15% in less than a year I'm mildly interested in whether we should be buying more, rebalancing, or selling.  It depends on our level of interest (which admittedly fluctuates with the surf or home-improvement projects) and whether our cash needs replenishing.

 

[SteveR]

I use Money but only because I have not found any thing better. I have used it for almost 10 years and upgrade about every 3 years so there is a ton of stuff in the database that I would hate to try to convert to anything else. It works enough for me but there are a number of irritating programing items that make the experience frustrating.

 

[greg]

Well, there's TLT, but you won't get it at a discount to NAV. There are numerous CEFs loaded with AAA-rated insured munis that are quite long term and trading at a discount, but most of them are leveraged. Not sure if that's what you had in mind.

I've tip-toed into some exchange-traded preferreds lately: MFA and ANH. The market is spooked on them, but I can't imagine a scenario under which they would ever be impaired barring fraud. I'm also looking at PFX, SCT preferred, and ANH preferred.

I'm sort of looking for a smaller, highly volatile interest rate play. My ONLY thought is treasuries. If things really start to crumble, I don't want anything to do with insured munis (who the heck pays if all the insurers are in trouble with their other things--like mortgages? Triple AAA bonds insured by potentially B rated insurers are B rated to my mind) I'm currently ready to pounce on MXA in Minnesota because they're mostly general obligations. They should hold up better when EVERYONE revisits risk as an important factor in investment decisions. I also need/want current income which rules out zeros (dang, if I want to pay taxes on money I don't get right now). I'm just trying to do better than TLT which has no leverage. Preferreds? Pfft, not safe enough for me. Thanks.

--Greg

 

[CyclingInvestor]

I have found nothing to beat plain old Excel. I can set up whatever forms I
want, and know exactly what the underlying equations are. This includes
income tax calculations.

My portfolio swings up or down 1 or 2% several days each month. In
April 2004 it dropped 20% (about $220K) in around 2 weeks, then
within 6 months had recovered it all plus 20% more. I find this fun to
watch, but as long as the underlying companies (mostly individual
REITs) keep doing their job, increasing income and dividends, it does
not bother (or excite) me.

 

[brewer12345]

I'm sort of looking for a smaller, highly volatile interest rate play.  My ONLY thought is treasuries.  If things really start to crumble, I don't want anything to do with insured munis (who the heck pays if all the insurers are in trouble with their other things--like mortgages?  Triple AAA bonds insured by potentially B rated insurers are B rated to my mind)  I'm currently ready to pounce on MXA in Minnesota because they're mostly general obligations.  They should hold up better when EVERYONE revisits risk as an important factor in investment decisions.  I also need/want current income which rules out zeros (dang, if I want to pay taxes on money I don't get right now).  I'm just trying to do better than TLT which has no leverage.  Preferreds?  Pfft, not safe enough for me.  Thanks.

--Greg

What interest rate bet are ou looking to make? You think rates will fall, I presume? Or that the yield curve will become steep again? Easy. Look at mortgage REITs. There are several trading at a discount to book that will rocket upwards if the yield curve steepens. MFA and ANH bot invest pretty much strictly in AAA agency MBS, so any defaults in the portfolio are absorbed by the agencies and paid out as cash. These things have essentially no credit risk, but have a big interest rate bet.

 

[greg]

What interest rate bet are ou looking to make? You think rates will fall, I presume? Or that the yield curve will become steep again? Easy. Look at mortgage REITs. There are several trading at a discount to book that will rocket upwards if the yield curve steepens. MFA and ANH bot invest pretty much strictly in AAA agency MBS, so any defaults in the portfolio are absorbed by the agencies and paid out as cash. These things have essentially no credit risk, but have a big interest rate bet.

No, I have to feel safe. That means treasuries only. All I want is a play on these when the Fed starts lowering rates and reliquifying after the recession starts. So the short rates will drop when the Fed figures out we're in a recession and the long rates should drop too--maybe/probably--unless that pesky inflation acts up. That is the only risk I want to deal with: the inflation-deflation connundrum, not whether Fannie May/Freddie Mac will pull a pension fund thingie and only pay out 60% of their implied obligation--or not. Thanks again.

--Greg

 

[brewer12345]

No, I have to feel safe.  That means treasuries only.  All I want is a play on these when the Fed starts lowering rates and reliquifying after the recession starts.  So the short rates will drop when the Fed figures out we're in a recession and the long rates should drop too--maybe/probably--unless that pesky inflation acts up.  That is the only risk I want to deal with:  the inflation-deflation connundrum, not whether Fannie May/Freddie Mac will pull a pension fund thingie and only pay out 60% of their implied obligation--or not.   Thanks again.

--Greg

How about a different, roll your own strategy? Take a pile of cash. Buy whatever FI securities you are comfy with with 90% of it, presumably treasuries, T-bills, CDs, whatever. Then take the 10% and buy out of the money call options on TLT. You can buy Jan. '08 calls pretty cheaply.

 

[greg]

Brewer:

I have think about that. Only a couple simple moving parts to that set up. I'll get back to you. Thanks again again.

--Greg

 

[Andre1969]

I track my portfolio in a pretty low-tech way. I have an Excel spreadsheet that has columns for every account I have...mutual funds, the 401ks, Roth IRA, scottrade account, etc. In the morning before the markets open up, I'll go to my various accounts online, get the totals, and type them into the Excel spreadsheet.

I don't do it every morning, but if the market has gone up enough to put me at another new high, I'll record it. Or right after I make a fairly large investment. Or also if the market takes a really big nosedive.

Then, I add them all up and plot that total on a graph. Over time, I'll go back and erase some of the less neccesary data points. For instance, if one day I'm at $100K, then it does to $103K and then $105K, I might get rid of the $103K data.

I'd say typically the total never fluctuates by more than 1% from day to day. 2% is usually a pretty major event.

 

[Sheryl]

I track my portfolio in a pretty low-tech way.  I have an Excel spreadsheet that has columns for every account I have...mutual funds, the 401ks, Roth IRA, scottrade account, etc.  In the morning before the markets open up, I'll go to my various accounts online, get the totals, and type them into the Excel spreadsheet.

Wow!  That sounds like w@rk!   I have the same sort of spreadsheet but only update it quarterly, or when I feel like it.   In the mean time, I use Yahoo Finance.  I have input my accounts and it shows me current values on my homepage every morning.  I only have to update when I make a deposit or dividends are credited.  Close enough for me!

I made a resolution last year to buy (and drink) a bottle of good champagne at every $50k milestone.  I've been hovering about 2-3K under for months now   

A few more days like today and I should be ready to pop a cork!

 

[LOL!]

I track stuff in MS Money nowadays because it came installed on the computer I use. Before that I used Quicken.

Fluctuations are routinely +-$5K daily. It's not uncommon to get a +-$15K like today and a +-$25K about 4 times a year.

How do I feel about that? It's made spending $25K on a vacation or car pretty easy to do. After all, I could get all that back in a day ... or lose it all tomorrow if I don't spend it today. Definitely made me less cheap.

 

[wabmester]

Fluctuations are routinely +-$5K daily.  It's not uncommon to get a +-$15K like today and a +-$25K about 4 times a year.

I just calculated that your porfolio size is around $3.5M. Was I close?

 

[TargaDave]

Use current version MS Money but as others have mentioned it does have drawbacks. Like the "lifetime planner" though.

One nice thing about working and kids and hobbies, etc, is that I don't look at numbers nearly as often. Looking at it daily seems crazy (self torture?). I generally do a 5 sec weekly glance and a peak at a few key holdings. Working my way closer to the Unclemick/C-T approach. Once a quarter viewing seems about right. On the other hand fun time planning is reviewed hourly 8)

 

[brewer12345]

Brewer:

I have think about that.  Only a couple simple moving parts to that set up.  I'll get back to you.  Thanks again again.

--Greg

Greg:

I was thinking about this and I came up with another way to skin the cat. What you really want to do is borrow short and lend long, specifically to the gummint. If you were a financial institution, it would be really easy: use overnight or one week repos to buy 10 or 30 year treasuries. I don't know if you can do this as a retail client. If you did it paying margin interest rates, it would be a non-starter due to the ridiculously high margin rates most brokers charge. But at short term reverse repurchase rates, it would work pretty nicely. It might be worth calling whatever brokerage you use and ask them what they could do for you.