bottom's a tough call. generally, i think we are either at or at least we can see bottom and i think some areas are below bottom. all depending on area and product.
my palm beach county property is in an excellent area which seems to have bottomed about 30% below peak. there are few buyers but those who do seem well-qualified. for that product (deepwater, single family) there are zero bank owned properties available and currently maybe less than five preforeclosures within miles north or south of mine so i don't expect prices to drop much lower but for the impatient few. based on past typical 20- & 30-year projections of normal appreciation rates, i'd say this area is now below where it should be, even with all the bottoming going around. but sales are, of course, very slow. only two houses have sold near mine this year (though there are not that many for sale). a new build directly on the icw a few blocks away got over $8mm & a nearby teardown got just over $1mm. back in the day, they likely would have gotten more than $11mm & about $1.5 respectively.
my friend who once was very nervous about his house (a few miles from me in fort lauderdale) has calmed down because he is finally seeing numerous sales go through. though, most of them are short sales and bank owned and the discounts are scary, as much as up to 40% off peak prices. it happens that his area had a lot of turn-over during the bubble and i believe that is reflected now in the pop. also you'll see an occasional 50% off, most likely reflective of a prior scam.
my area seems to be holding its own by florida standards. currently also down about 30% but in the end i expect it will fare not too badly because i believe most of our increases were created not so much by the bubble but by the complete change of character of our neighborhood which, while facilitated in part by the bubble, has nonetheless created permanent change & momentum by developing from a cracktown to an incredibly successful gayborhood. no more section 8 housing. no more drug rehab center. our mainstreet is busy every night until 2 in the morning. in-season this year was insane. two banks are getting ready to build on our mainstreet. we have a new shopping center. starbucks is keeping this store open, even wth two other coffee shops within walking distance from them.
some of the new condos & townhouses here can be had at very good prices. single family is cheaper than it was. during peak there was not a single family house for sale under $300k. today (checking right now) there are two under $200k and 12 under $300k out of the approx 52 total for sale here.
though i haven't yet confirmed, i'm told my neighbor cattycorner from the front of my house just got his asking price of $679k in, i think, less than 4 months. he had bought a dilapidated structure in 2001 for $150k and, being a talented carpenter (who redid the interior of my house), built a 2,800sf magnificant gated home of it.
i don't yet know if that sales figure is correct though i do know he had previously refused $550k. the neighbor directly across from me was asking $799k, supposedly just got a contract but the house wouldn't appraise. he rebuilt the 1950s structure and added to make 3,000 sq with pool and it truly is a work of art. but i believe he is going to lose his decorator butt on the project. likely he would have gotten over $1.1mm in the day, but that day is done.
other areas like miami beach are probably at bottom because it is still a very desirable place to live and lots of international types invest there even now. however, places like miami downtown with the extreme overbuild of condo units likely will continue to see prices drop further.
inland properties are a tough call for me as i don't live there. i understand from what i've read that inland areas which gained much value during the boom should fall even harder during the bust because they don't have the natural draw that coastal areas command. i do know that's true for coastal areas which never should have risen as high as our coastal metropolitan areas in the first place, areas like port st. lucie and cape coral. so i suspect that inland areas and those coastal areas without even an international airport might suffer a bit longer than previously established, tourist-drawing destinations.
florida in general rose about the fastest and the farthest and subsequently fell the soonest and the hardest. i've read some economists interpret that to mean that we should be one of the first to recover. but that will be tempered by our property taxes (which seeem to finally be coming under some measures of control), insurance costs (they rip us off even on liability & auto, never mind wind) and population growth (we can't truly recover until other areas recover so they can sell and buy here).
the general economy in florida is gloomy for the next year but optimistic into the long-term future. we just lost more jobs than anywhere else in the nation (though probably much of that was, as to be expected, construction-related).
so i don't know if this is at all insightful, but speaking as a deputy representative of the florida chamber of commerce, with two houses of my own to sell, i'd say now is the perfect time to buy in florida. as bob barker used to say "come on down!" the price is right.
(as to the sunset state article. out of one side of the guys face he claims we are not pouring enough money into the everglades, out of the other side of his face he claims florida will sink into the sea. very well balanced--not, i'd say.)
