Thanks, Midpack. I just wondered whether I would get very different results, and wow, did I ever! No scientific reason to dispute the 1871, just wondering/fretting.
I've also played with the spreadsheet results and it can be helpful and interesting indeed.The FireCalc run I do which I feel best tests my current situation (complicated by upcoming portfolio adjustments funding 529b's for the grandkids, setting up a trust for a special needs grandson, helping to fund MIL's future NH care and blaah, blaah, blaah) has a dip in year 5. The run recovers and is 100% successful with significant margin, but, still, I was interested in what beginning year ( and the econ condx of those times) resulted in a dip in year 5 given my parameters. I just requested the excel sheet and sorted year 5 from highest to lowest amounts and then noted which beginning year corresponded to the low dip.
Correct.I've also played with the spreadsheet results and it can be helpful and interesting indeed.
I'm confused by the exercise you describe above though. Picking out a FIRECALC start year(s) with a dip in returns at year five isn't the same as your known unusual expenses in year five.
Correct againA dip in returns is not the same as unusual expenses, sequence of returns would actually compound the dip if you'd retired that year.
That's what I did. Then I looked at the FireCalc output graph, noted that one starting year had an interesting dip in portfolio value at year #5 (not a dip in "returns" as you stated). I dropped the Excel data and sorted the year 5 outputs, just out of curiosity, to see what starting year resulted in the portfolio value dip in year #5. Interestingly, it was 1937. It's of no particular consequense other than contemplating how the parameters of my run interact with the FireCalc data beginning in 1937.Maybe you've already done it, but I'd be more inclined to enter the expenses you describe above as "off chart spending" or "lump sum changes (subtract)" in FIRECALC on those tabs.