Terrified. Begging for help - Income/Investing

[DevonMiles19]

I'm 38. Wife, 2 kids. Overall....I've had a mixture of good luck and also doing things right in that business life has been a success, and ditto family life.

My sin: I've neglected health and planning. NOT confirmed but reason to believe I have kidney disease. Oh, and my life insurance is frankly 60% SHORT of what I should've had.

Wife has never worked. Other than cutting coupons, NEVER done anything investing/financial related. Haven't told Wife anything yet...but have gotten very aggressive putting her thru basic finance 101. BUT.....I need to plan for this worse case:

*How can I leave proper income producing nest egg so Wife and kids can live without me* Money details:

*Say I'd croak in 5 years.

*$4,000,000 would be what I leave behind for her. (I hope to God that's enough, cause that's the number)

I know there's no perfect answer, but I'm hoping for some solid opinions:

*When figuring out "how long with my money last"....what are realistic assumptions for investment returns, AND yearly inflation?

Right now I'm using 3.5% yearly withdrawal increases, and 2.75% yearly investment returns. (Hoping to do 50% in CD's that by then will earn 2.5% hopefully. The other 50% in conservative equities....with hope of earning 4% per year, minus 1% wealth manager fee....so 3% on that.)

Very thankful for any thoughts. Right now, I wish I could go back in time, and shoot myself so I don't start a family.

 

[brewer12345]

Calm down and ditch the wealth manager. You can set up a simple portfolio and let her live off the dividends and interest, such as Vanguard's Wellington fund. You should also look into what the Social Security survivor benefits would be. If you have kids under 18 in the house the payout is surprisingly large.

 

[pb4uski]

Welcome and sorry to hear of your situation. Calm down.

Depending on what your family needs to live on, $4m should be plenty - at a conservative 3% withdrawal rate that would be $120k a year in today's dollars and would increase for inflation for a long, long time. Many of us live on much less. If you don't already have it, buy Quicken Deluxe or higher and go through the Lifetime Planner screens and put in your information to see how your nestegg would last. You can include kids college costs, other special expenses, etc.

I agree with Brewer that Wellington (or Wellesley) would be good easy choices. Also, with your amount of money Vanguard will do a financial planning analysis for you and will recommend what funds to invest in - for free - they won't skim off 1% - it will go to support your family.

Your assumptions are probably unduly conservative. Investment returns would typically be expected to exceed inflation. FWIW, I use 3% for inflation and 5.5% for investment returns for my retirement plan assuming an investment portfolio of 60% equities and 40% bonds (which is ~ what Wellington is and the 5.5% I use is 3% lower than the 8.7% historical return for a 60/40 portfolio from 1926 to 2012 and Wellington's 8.5% average return for the last 10 years) See https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/saving-investing/model-portfolio-allocations and https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0521&FundIntExt=INT#tab=1

 

[redduck]

You will receive some excellent advice on his board. And, I would suggest that you pay attention to what brewer12345 and pb4uski have already suggested. I can tell you that both of them have helped me numerous times.

 

[brewer12345]

Something that may not be that apparent, but is worth highlighting: if you pay a wealth manager 1%, that reduces the amount you can draw by a quarter to a third. Learn enough and teach your DW enough to avoid the use of an advisor. Its about the most remunerative thing you will ever do.

 

[urn2bfree]

Something that may not be that apparent, but is worth highlighting: if you pay a wealth manager 1%, that reduces the amount you can draw by a quarter to a third. Learn enough and teach your DW enough to avoid the use of an advisor. Its about the most remunerative thing you will ever do.

I agree that paying anyone 1% or any percent of assets is unwise and indefensible. If needed pay a professional the way you pay a lawyer or doctor or plumber, for the service or time...the service is rarely if ever pro rational to you nest eggs size.

But 1% fee is not a third or a fourth of your withdrawal except at the beginning. The SWR. May start as 3% of assets and a 1% AUM fee is a third...but the yearly withdrawl amount increases from that point forward and the percentage of you portfolio that it represents could be much higher or lower depending on how your portfolio does. If your portfolio goes way up, the amount withdrawn will be a tiny fraction of th portfolio and 1% AUM fee could be half or more of what you take out... Or it could shrink in comparison. Bu it will always be inappropriately calculated to line your advisor's pockets more than yours.
In short if your financial advisor won't charge you a fee based on his/her work rather than based on your wealth---FIRE THAT ADVISOR!

 

[annienz]

All this aside, there are two things you should be doing before anything else: Telling your wife, and getting confirmation from the doctor. In that order.

 

[akck]

All this aside, there are two things you should be doing before anything else: Telling your wife, and getting confirmation from the doctor. In that order.

I agree, but I'd reverse the order. No need to unduly worry the wife with a self-diagnosed fatal disease. Let her know you're going in for a checkup though.

Once you know the diagnosis, you'll have the time to put your affairs in order (likely decades). At that point, you can start planning a retirement for your family. You'll receive plenty of help here on your options.

I've been known to make an internet diagnosis, mainly to get out of going in for a minor issue. So calm down and see a doctor now! Then use this life opportunity to plan your family's future.

 

[2B]

Depending on what you mean by "kidney disease" you may have many options. First, discuss this with your wife and then get a real diagnosis. Kidney transplants are common and people can live for decades with dialysis.

I recommend talking to your wife first because I suspect she already knows something isn't right. She can tell you are concerned and worried about something. Until you get a real diagnosis you are just working yourself into a frenzy without information. I peed blood for two weeks, went to a Urologist and was fixed with a 1 month prescription. I was really worried but it was for naught. You may be no worse than I was.

With $4MM and 5 years as assumptions, you have plenty of time to develop a simple, index fund portfolio that will provide a pretty nice lifestyle for your family. Add to this any SS or pensions you might also have. You won't find many people here that will recommend a "wealth manager." Some will recommend a fee only financial planner which may make sense for you once you get a real medical diagnosis.

You haven't mentioned your current lifestyle so "getting by" on a nominal $120,000 to $160,000 (3 or 4% SWR) may be a reduction in ammenities but that's still enough for a decent lifestyle. As for being short on life insurance, it is what it is.

 

[DevonMiles19]

Thank you all, please keep it coming

I've read each response twice thus far and instead of posting each time to thank you, I thought it was okay to just say thank you very much everybody. Please keep it coming. To address some of the points you all made:


1% to advisor
*************
You make perfect sense -- that 1% is money my family could use and I 100% agree. BUT . . . as of now, DW knows less than a 16 year old where it comes to money. Other than coupon cutting, and buying on sale at TJ Maxx....she knows nothing. This week is the first time she even looked at bank statements cause i was showing her where all the money is. Point being if TODAY were D-DAY... she would have NO clue about a 'bubble' or 'irrational exuberence' or ' buy on the dip' or "company X had a bad quarter, but long term prospects are good'. My hope was 50% CD's ($2 million). Thus, the 1% advisor fee amounts to $2,000 per year on the other $2 mm. "Worst case scenario" means DW would be slightly clue-less. My hope is the advisor will advise. ALSO I'd have 1-2 dear friends who are accomplished businessmen/investors on stand-by. DW would run any Advisor's advice past them, just as a check and balance.


YES, putting money in conservative funds with strong histories is SO APPEALING. I wish I was croaking 50 years ago cause my family would live very very well on this 8% returns. BUT going forward....there's no WW2 boom. There's no middle class being freshly born. The highway systems and hoover dams are already built. Poverty levels are higher, budget deficits are bigger.

Point being: I'm not sure the next 50 years will be like the previous 50 which is the SOLE reason I'm worried about putting money in funds, and assuming the returns will be strong. But it's a very good thought and idea, I'm 100% going to run scenarios based on spreading money out sans advisor.

Lifestyle
*******

Yes, got used to nice lifestyle. IN my defense I'll say that we lived below our means though, AND never did anything on credit. PLease bear with me folks....we're not the designer handbag type yuppies. But if I'm gonna croak, and still send my kids to a rather affluent and well rated school district.....yeah, I'd like disposable income so that they can buy clothes or go to movies. It's bad enough their idiot Daddy might be gone .

Until kids are grown, I gotta generate $122,000 gross annual income, on a nest-egg of $4 mill. (SS benefits are extra. I'm talking $122k SOLELY off the $4mm nest-egg)

Back to statistics
**************

No perfect way to do this, but for my purposes I need to come to some sort of black-white conclusion.

$122 INCOME into $4mm nest egg: Need 3.05% returns.

3.05% investment returns, and factoring in a yearly 3.75% increase in withdrawals. If you were me, and you knew the investments would be very conservative.... would you feel 3.05% return + 3.75% yearly inflation bump is realistic for the next 40 years averaged out?

Thank you.

 

[HFWR]

I've read each response twice thus far and instead of posting each time to thank you, I thought it was okay to just say thank you very much everybody. Please keep it coming. To address some of the points you all made: 1% to advisor ************* You make perfect sense -- that 1% is money my family could use and I 100% agree. BUT . . . as of now, DW knows less than a 16 year old where it comes to money. Other than coupon cutting, and buying on sale at TJ Maxx....she knows nothing. This week is the first time she even looked at bank statements cause i was showing her where all the money is. Point being if TODAY were D-DAY... she would have NO clue about a 'bubble' or 'irrational exuberence' or ' buy on the dip' or "company X had a bad quarter, but long term prospects are good'. My hope was 50% CD's ($2 million). Thus, the 1% advisor fee amounts to $2,000 per year on the other $2 mm. "Worst case scenario" means DW would be slightly clue-less. My hope is the advisor will advise. ALSO I'd have 1-2 dear friends who are accomplished businessmen/investors on stand-by. DW would run any Advisor's advice past them, just as a check and balance. YES, putting money in conservative funds with strong histories is SO APPEALING. I wish I was croaking 50 years ago cause my family would live very very well on this 8% returns. BUT going forward....there's no WW2 boom. There's no middle class being freshly born. The highway systems and hoover dams are already built. Poverty levels are higher, budget deficits are bigger. Point being: I'm not sure the next 50 years will be like the previous 50 which is the SOLE reason I'm worried about putting money in funds, and assuming the returns will be strong. But it's a very good thought and idea, I'm 100% going to run scenarios based on spreading money out sans advisor. Lifestyle ******* Yes, got used to nice lifestyle. IN my defense I'll say that we lived below our means though, AND never did anything on credit. PLease bear with me folks....we're not the designer handbag type yuppies. But if I'm gonna croak, and still send my kids to a rather affluent and well rated school district.....yeah, I'd like disposable income so that they can buy clothes or go to movies. It's bad enough their idiot Daddy might be gone . Until kids are grown, I gotta generate $122,000 gross annual income, on a nest-egg of $4 mill. (SS benefits are extra. I'm talking $122k SOLELY off the $4mm nest-egg) Back to statistics ************** No perfect way to do this, but for my purposes I need to come to some sort of black-white conclusion. $122 INCOME into $4mm nest egg: Need 3.05% returns. 3.05% investment returns, and factoring in a yearly 3.75% increase in withdrawals. If you were me, and you knew the investments would be very conservative.... would you feel 3.05% return + 3.75% yearly inflation bump is realistic for the next 40 years averaged out? Thank you.

Minor correction: 1% of $2M is $20,000...

CDs will not provide the return you need.

Wellington's current yield is 2.3%, so $92k income on a $4M portfolio w/o touching the nest egg...

 

[LOL!]

.... Thus, the 1% advisor fee amounts to $2,000 per year on the other $2 mm.
....

1% of $2 mm is $20,000, not $2,000.

 

[Huston55]

I've read each response twice thus far and instead of posting each time to thank you, I thought it was okay to just say thank you very much everybody. Please keep it coming. To address some of the points you all made:


1% to advisor
*************
You make perfect sense -- that 1% is money my family could use and I 100% agree. BUT . . . as of now, DW knows less than a 16 year old where it comes to money. Other than coupon cutting, and buying on sale at TJ Maxx....she knows nothing. This week is the first time she even looked at bank statements cause i was showing her where all the money is. Point being if TODAY were D-DAY... she would have NO clue about a 'bubble' or 'irrational exuberence' or ' buy on the dip' or "company X had a bad quarter, but long term prospects are good'. My hope was 50% CD's ($2 million). Thus, the 1% advisor fee amounts to $2,000 per year on the other $2 mm. "Worst case scenario" means DW would be slightly clue-less. My hope is the advisor will advise. ALSO I'd have 1-2 dear friends who are accomplished businessmen/investors on stand-by. DW would run any Advisor's advice past them, just as a check and balance.


YES, putting money in conservative funds with strong histories is SO APPEALING. I wish I was croaking 50 years ago cause my family would live very very well on this 8% returns. BUT going forward....there's no WW2 boom. There's no middle class being freshly born. The highway systems and hoover dams are already built. Poverty levels are higher, budget deficits are bigger.

Point being: I'm not sure the next 50 years will be like the previous 50 which is the SOLE reason I'm worried about putting money in funds, and assuming the returns will be strong. But it's a very good thought and idea, I'm 100% going to run scenarios based on spreading money out sans advisor.

Lifestyle
*******

Yes, got used to nice lifestyle. IN my defense I'll say that we lived below our means though, AND never did anything on credit. PLease bear with me folks....we're not the designer handbag type yuppies. But if I'm gonna croak, and still send my kids to a rather affluent and well rated school district.....yeah, I'd like disposable income so that they can buy clothes or go to movies. It's bad enough their idiot Daddy might be gone .

Until kids are grown, I gotta generate $122,000 gross annual income, on a nest-egg of $4 mill. (SS benefits are extra. I'm talking $122k SOLELY off the $4mm nest-egg)

Back to statistics
**************

No perfect way to do this, but for my purposes I need to come to some sort of black-white conclusion.

$122 INCOME into $4mm nest egg: Need 3.05% returns.

3.05% investment returns, and factoring in a yearly 3.75% increase in withdrawals. If you were me, and you knew the investments would be very conservative.... would you feel 3.05% return + 3.75% yearly inflation bump is realistic for the next 40 years averaged out?

Thank you.

1% on $2M is $20,000, not $2,000. Ditch the advisor.

I think 3.05% plus inflation is very realistic. The CDs will get you 2% now and likely more in the future and, as stated before, a single highly rated mutual fund like Vanguard Wellington will earn well over the 4.10% needed for total portfolio return to be >3.05%. Wellington's 10 yr and ITD (since 1929) returns have both been >8%/yr.

 

[marko]

The first thing I'd do is get a (maybe two, three) real medical opinions of your health situation.

Far too often, people have concluded that "the end is near" only to find out it was a minor, easily resolved issue.

Good luck and God bless.

 

[panacea]

Sounds like you're headed in the right direction and you've gotten some good advice already on making investing simple. I would add just a couple of thoughts (also already touched on I guess)...
I would tell DW that you think it's important to work more closely together on making financial decisions, reviewing monthly and quarterly investment statements, paying the bills, etc. Whether you live for 2 years or 50 years, at some point she's going to need to have a firm grasp of these concepts to feel secure. My DW doesn't seem to care about this stuff, but I remind her where everything is regularly, show her the investment numbers every few months and sit her down to review our net worth annually. The other thing I would say is to take a close look at your expenses. You say you LBYM, so you're already ahead of most people. However, if you have serious and legitimate concerns about your life expectancy, I would drill down to see exactly how much you currently need to live and how much DW would need if you were gone. Maybe $4MM is more than you need to eliminate all debts, fund your kids education, and leave enough leftover for to generate a comfortable life for DW. If I were significantly underinsured and couldn't get more coverage, I would look at it like what my family would have if I died today. If it weren't enough, I would make aggressive changes immediately...downsize my house, refine my budget and start saving even more aggressively... FWIW.

 

[travelover]

You have gotten excellent advice thus far. First, congratulations on providing for your family so well by accumulating a nice nest egg.

Second, with $4M invested, Vanguard will provide a certain amount of hand holding for free. You can set it up so that your wife would basically get a weekly or monthly check.

Lastly, there is a good chance that you won't need to do this anyway. So, take care of yourself, your family will be fine.

 

[2B]

Five years (if accurate) is plenty of time to educate your DW. My wife left everything to me despite my continuing efforts to get her involved. She read Andrew Hallam's Millionaire Teacher and became interested. She did the rebalancing last year. It is a really simple book and it explains index investing so that anyone can do it. Even you.

As for 40 years in the future, nobody knows what will happen to either an individual or an economy. Just think about the last 40 years. We've seen market bubbles and collapses. Interest rates and inflation have been all over the place.

I'm hoping that all of your medical issues go away but still inspire you to look into your finances more closely and involve your DW into the process. Odds are that she'll outlive you anyway so she's going to probably have to take over the finances at some point anyway.

 

[lhamo]

Assuming you have been paying into the social security system, your wife and kids would get social security survivor benefits until the kids are 18 and/or graduate from high school, whichever comes later. That can be a significant basic income that will offset what you need to take from other sources while your kids are home. Basic financial management is not rocket science. Even if your DW is starting from the most basic of basics, she can learn. And if she sees how comparatively little a low-risk investment portfolio returns in comparison to your current lifestyle costs, you may find that her coupon-cutting tendencies intensify and she can figure out ways to massively cut back on expenses.

 

[timwalsh300]

I was worried right up until I saw the part about $4M. Your wife doesn't need to be able to execute a very complicated plan to survive on that kind of nest egg. She could keep it entirely in cash/bonds and use a 1% withdrawal rate, especially with SS survivor benefits, and still live better than half of American households. So that puts a floor on the worst case scenario.

Plus, five years is a long time to learn something. I remember how mysterious money seemed to be five years ago. A couple books on basic history and theory (Bernstein's Four Pillars was my introduction) and some hands-on experience (for the mechanics of opening accounts, moving money, filing a 1040, etc.) are sufficient. There is nothing particularly useful about understanding "a 'bubble' or 'irrational exuberence' or ' buy on the dip' or "company X had a bad quarter, but long term prospects are good'."

Regarding your second question, I don't worry about projecting inflation rates. I just plan based on a 3% real return for a low cost, balanced (50-60% stock) portfolio.

Tim

 

[pb4uski]

A couple additional thoughts.

First, depending on your circumstances, if you just suspect that you may have kidney disease and haven't been tested or diagnosed with it and are otherwise healthy, it may not be too late to buy some term life insurance, but you need to be careful to answer any and all questions truthfully. In most cases the questions will ask if you have or have been diagnosed with certain afflictions. If you are just suspicious that you may have kidney disease, then you can truthfully answer no. However, if you have been told you have it by a doctor or tested for it you couldn't. In any event it may be worth exploring.

The other flaw is thinking that you need to generate a return equal to your withdrawal rate adjusted for inflation. If you did that then no principal would ever be spent, which is way too conservative (as is a 3.75% inflation rate IMO). If you insist on a 3.5% inflation rate then the portfolio would need to earn an average 5.75% return to last 50 years, which isn't outrageous unless you are 50% in CDs. I suggest that you also play around with Firecalc to see how different asset allocations would fare based on past history. I think it is a huge mistake to dedicate 50% to CDs - such a portfolio would not have a very good chance of keeping up with inflation.

 

[FinanceDude]

A couple additional thoughts.

First, depending on your circumstances, if you just suspect that you may have kidney disease and haven't been tested or diagnosed with it and are otherwise healthy, it may not be too late to buy some term life insurance, but you need to be careful to answer any and all questions truthfully. In most cases the questions will ask if you have or have been diagnosed with certain afflictions. If you are just suspicious that you may have kidney disease, then you can truthfully answer no. However, if you have been told you have it by a doctor or tested for it you couldn't. In any event it may be worth exploring.

I agree 1000% with this. If you are truly underinsured, try to get into underwriting for a large term policy. Maybe you can get it through before a disease is found. The only way is to try........ Also, a fair number of companies let you buy additional insurance through work without underwriting. It is worth checking into.

 

[eytonxav]

Aside from all the good financial advice you have received and getting a bonafide medical opinion/2nd opiniom, perhaps you should focus on things that will make you healthier (eg eating heathy, exercising, spiritual well being) and to also devote more time to do things with your family.

 

[gauss]

"I have been through some terrible things in my life, some of which actually happened."
Mark Twain

Words that have helped me in times of high anxiety.
-gauss

 

[DevonMiles19]

Thanks, keep it coming

Term Life
********
The Life Insurance company reports to the "Medical Insurance Bureau"......so when I apply for insurance now, the underwriter sees that, and it's automative turn-down...even for "no exam needed" policy. Once I'm examined by a doc, I'm told company X will "re-look" at me but of course, that's ONLY if the doc offers some positive news.

Maxed out with no-underwriting insurance thru work. There IS a bigger policy available, thru work but that is subject to underwriting. I dunno if underwriting standards are more lenient cause it's a group policy, but I imagine when they see "protein in urine" at the Medical Insurance Bureau.... that's not gonna make them happy.


Portfolio
*******

YES, i'm trying to be as conservative as can be. Trying to make it as passive an income-stream as possible. Here's where I request more critique, and opinion:

$4mm:
******************

1.)Yearly return of 2.75%

2.)Assuming 3.5% increase in yearly withdrawals.

3.)A portfolio that is rather low risk, and rather passively managed. Ie money put into CD's, Vanguard Wellsley, wellington, etc where I put the money in, and pray for 40 years of 2.75% returns, and 3.5% yearly inflation for expenses.

Is that realistic? Too conservative? Too wishful?

Keep in mind, this is 5 years from now. No crystal ball, but hoping interest rates for savers are higher than today so please factor that in.

Thanks

 

[DevonMiles19]

Medical/personal DFW

Aside from all the good financial advice you have received and getting a bonafide medical opinion/2nd opiniom, perhaps you should focus on things that will make you healthier (eg eating heathy, exercising, spiritual well being) and to also devote more time to do things with your family.

Thanks DFW....

By Nov 11th I should have the "real" prognosis as that's when blood results will be in, and looked at by specialist.

Lifestyle: Food used to be my life. For the last 16 days:

*25-30 mins daily walking.
*Have only drank water, period.
*Sodium at 1500 mg/day.
*No red meat.
*Limited chicken and dish.
*Fruits and veggies daily.

Down 12 pounds. Blood pressure still high, but down a few points.

Enjoying family all we can, but sometimes it's tough to hug my kids or wife cause of what I fear is down the corner. Life has lost what innocence that was there for me. Have told nobody. Will have to weigh that once I know results.