More fodder for the mill: JP Morgan 2015 Ret. Report

[LARS]

https://www.jpmorganfunds.com/cm/Sa...-media_twitter_retirement_guide_to_retirement

 

[Big_Hitter]

I like slide 6. Anyone check the math on slide 15?

 

[Focus]

Good overview. Slide 11 is eye-opening:

"Clearly older Americans experience a higher degree of inflation over time - outpacing the general inflation measure as well as the rate at which Social Security increases over time."

The next slide indicates it's primarily due to health care costs. Everything comes back to that, doesn't it? Success seems to hinge on how well we handle this particular cost category, but we have only so much control over it.

Studies show that discretionary spending tends to drop as one gets older. Looks like what's saved there is likely to be eaten up by health care. That's why when I use FIRECalc I never click on Bernicke's Reality Retirement Plan, which reduces spending with age.

 

[braumeister]

Health care cost inflation has been about double the general inflation rate for some time, but is starting to moderate now. Personally, I think it will continue to diminish until it isn't too much higher than the general rate, but I'm a lousy forecaster.

 

[M Paquette]

Health care cost inflation has been about double the general inflation rate for some time, but is starting to moderate now. Personally, I think it will continue to diminish until it isn't too much higher than the general rate, but I'm a lousy forecaster.

I sure hope so. I remember doing my retirement planning, and following the health insurance rates up compared to inflation. I was looking at absurd numbers, over $140,000 in constant dollars every year if I made it to my 80s.

 

[walkinwood]

Good overview. Slide 11 is eye-opening:



The next slide indicates it's primarily due to health care costs. Everything comes back to that, doesn't it? Success seems to hinge on how well we handle this particular cost category, but we have only so much control over it.

Studies show that discretionary spending tends to drop as one gets older. Looks like what's saved there is likely to be eaten up by health care. That's why when I use FIRECalc I never click on Bernicke's Reality Retirement Plan, which reduces spending with age.

But look at slide #23. Bernicke's studies showed the same thing. Spending declines with age. There are always anecdotes to show otherwise, but for the population as a whole, this seems to be true.

 

[Focus]

But look at slide #23. Bernicke's studies showed the same thing. Spending declines with age. There are always anecdotes to show otherwise, but for the population as a whole, this seems to be true.

True. With all the unknowns regarding health-care costs, I'd rather err on the side of caution and not bet that overall costs will decline.

Another look at this:

Retirement planning: Don't assume you'll spend less - CBS News

 

[MichaelB]

Folks, if you're going to link, how about a few words describing what the link is about. Your fellow forum members and readers will appreciate the courtesy.

 

[Masquernom]

Really shows what Regan did to the top tax rate. Note sure if that was good, or bad....

 

[mathjak107]

I like slide 6. Anyone check the math on slide 15?

why does slide 7 work out to more than 100% as far as the group that retired early and the reasons. ?

 

[Which Roger]

Health care cost inflation has been about double the general inflation rate for some time, but is starting to moderate now. Personally, I think it will continue to diminish until it isn't too much higher than the general rate, but I'm a lousy forecaster.

This has to happen sooner or later. If it continued indefinitely, health care costs would increase to 100% of total spending.

 

[mathjak107]

alot of things do not work out as shown . lots of desrepancies from other studies done.

 

[target2019]

Slide 35. The colors!

Slide 44. The unseen slide. What would it say?

Ok, sarcasm off. Slide 32 shows that the three-fund portfolio loses out to a more-diversified 8-fund portfolio for years 2000-2014. But what about other historic periods?