Better Stocks Than Bonds in Retirement

[Lsbcal]

Here is Ed Hyman, a top Wall Street economist discussing his views for 2022:

https://wealthtrack.com/wall-street-legend-ed-hyman-describes-the-powerful-forces-driving-record-economic-growth-into-2022/

I think the 26 minute interview is worth the time. It really pays to be an optimist.

I personally would only reduce equities if the moving average of the SP500 turns down plus the unemployment rate moves up. Not likely in the near term.

 

[67walkon]

After almost 10 years of retirement, I'm comfortable with a higher percent of equities. Years ago, I tried to build a portfolio on tax free mini bonds that were paying 5% or a little more. I calculated that a 4% tax free return was more than enough to support us well in retirement. And that part was right.

As bonds have matured or been called, I focused on dividend paying stocks and that was ok. Now, I'm back into a balanced portfolio with probably 60% stocks, 20-30% of my remaining bonds that haven't been called or matured and cash. We're doing just fine.

 

[Out of Steam]

"Sleep at night" is followed closely by "already won the game."

I won't claim we've already won the game, but we're several runs up in the 7th inning.

 

[Lsbcal]

but there are so many games to play

 

[OverThinkMuch]

Here's another view in how to fight back in inflationary times:
...
Since it's behind a paywall I'll toss in some quotes.

You can also add TIPS, or Treasury inflation-protected securities. Even though they aren’t cheap, they still offer protection against unexpected jumps in consumer prices down the road. So do inflation-protected savings bonds, or I bonds.

One warning about this specific suggestion - I bought TIPS last week, realized I screwed up, and sold them. What I didn't realize was the amount of TIPS bought by the Fed, creating artificial demand for a -3% yield bond investment. The Fed is almost certain to announce tapering in a matter of days, and that will hit TIPS harder than the expected Feds fund rate increases coming up next year.

I would avoid TIPS until the Fed finishes buying them (when the "Fed taper" has finished)

 

[FREE866]

I personally would only reduce equities if the moving average of the SP500 turns down plus the unemployment rate moves up. Not likely in the near term.

What correlation is there between the unemployment rate and the S and P 500 moving average with long term stock market returns?

 

[Time2]

I have a 76 yr old friend that has 30% + allocation of Bonds that he has held a long time. He did great with his bonds while bond rates dropped from 6% to 2%. However he is concerned that it's likely the only direction bonds rates can go is up, he can expect his net worth to sink as rates rise.

 

[Lsbcal]

What correlation is there between the unemployment rate and the S and P 500 moving average with long term stock market returns?

It is a timing strategy (as per this forums remit) with a good track record. There is no attempt to correlate with a long term buy-hold strategy. I mentioned this because such symptoms do not exist at present.

 

[mickeyd]

I have been riding at a 45/45/10 AA since I retired almost 20 years ago. I do RMD and roll stocks (TSM) in IRA directly into TSM taxable account. This just generates more and more quarterly dividends that I have directed to my checking account that I eventually spend on fun and games. We are 77 YO and loving life.