Callan Table of Periodic Investment Returns

[FlaGator]

Mods-Didn't see this with a search, please delete/redirect if I missed it.

Have found this interesting over the years to see how asset classes move up and down the table. Never found a way to reliably do asset class timing, but have found some comfort that this year's losers become winners later on.

https://www.callan.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Callan-PeriodicTbl_KeyInd_2018.pdf

 

[USGrant1962]

Mods-Didn't see this with a search, please delete/redirect if I missed it.

Have found this interesting over the years to see how asset classes move up and down the table. Never found a way to reliably do asset class timing, but have found some comfort that this year's losers become winners later on.

https://www.callan.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Callan-PeriodicTbl_KeyInd_2018.pdf

I love this graphic. I didn't know the update was out - thanks!

 

[audreyh1]

Great, thanks! I had forgotten about it. I always enjoy looking at the updated one and reviewing history each year.

It's fun tracking things. Look at AGG popping around! Many years it at the bottom, but it's still positive for the year! A couple of years - 1999, and 2013, it's negative, but second from the bottom. Those years are followed by a strong recovery year. And when it's at the top you know that it was a tough year for equities!

 

[OldShooter]

Ah, the quilt chart. Probably good for teaching the importance of diversification, but it has always struck me as the perfect marriage of incomprehensibly and ugliness. YMMV of course.

 

[athena53]

I'm a numbers and graphics geek and I love this chart! It helps explain to people why diversification and Re-balancing are so important.

 

[Texas Proud]

I love the chart also, but I would also love to have a total return or an avg per year for the whole period on the end...


IOW, emerging markets have been at the top and the bottom... but how has it done over the 10 or so years? No idea, but I bet it is at the top or close...

 

[audreyh1]

I didn’t realize that in 2000 and 2001 small cap value (Russell Index) did quite well in spite of the general equity sell off. I guess it was ignored during 1999.

Yep, near the bottom in 1998 and 1999.

 

[Totoro]

It is a nice visual tool, I like it too, especially in relative terms. But indeed doesn't tell the whole story: absolute differences sometimes are really small or really big for example.

If all returns are bunched together it matters less who is on top vs. a very wide return variation.

Another thing from my specific perspective (EUR) is that currency movements of the USD mucks things up quite a bit. I had a great year in 2015, and a decent one in 2017.

Still, very cool graphic and nice they keep it open and in the same format.

 

[target2019]

I love the chart also, but I would also love to have a total return or an avg per year for the whole period on the end...

IOW, emerging markets have been at the top and the bottom... but how has it done over the 10 or so years? No idea, but I bet it is at the top or close...

Because it has been at the top or the bottom, it averages to more return, but you have increased risk.

The answer to average return is calculated on boggleheads page...under #4:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Callan_periodic_table_of_investment_returns

 

[Lsbcal]

I didn’t realize that in 2000 and 2001 small cap value (Russell Index) did quite well in spite of the general equity sell off. I guess it was ignored during 1999.

Yep, near the bottom in 1998 and 1999.

This chart shows rolling 12 month return differentials. The magenta is small value minus small growth (VG funds). When the magenta is above the X-axis, value wins. There was quite a reversal back then.

 

[bobandsherry]

I'm a numbers and graphics geek and I love this chart! It helps explain to people why diversification and Re-balancing are so important.

I see it differently - this shows that unless you can pick winners each year it doesn't really matter. Winner today is loser tomorrow. Over time it probably averages out. It would be nice to see one more column on the chart, an average of the return by asset class over the 1998-2017 time frame.

 

[Lsbcal]

I showed a similar chart to my son who is now just making some investable money. Since he is so involved in work and young adult life, he'd be best served to diversify and do buy-hold. He's not an investment nut like his Dad and just needs to know where to squirrel away the money.

 

[sengsational]

Because it has been at the top or the bottom, it averages to more return, but you have increased risk.

It looks like the S&P 500 has a pretty good risk / return. That shouldn't be news.

I love the chart also, but I would also love to have a total return or an avg per year for the whole period on the end...

IOW, emerging markets have been at the top and the bottom... but how has it done over the 10 or so years? No idea, but I bet it is at the top or close...

It's at the top over the last 20 years. If you're willing to put up with the monster volatility.

But in the last 10 years, it didn't fare so well. Dropping 53% in 2008 was a tough one to power through.

 

[Texas Proud]

It looks like the S&P 500 has a pretty good risk / return. That shouldn't be news.


It's at the top over the last 20 years. If you're willing to put up with the monster volatility.

Thanks.... and the one you left out (bonds) will be at the bottom... but safe...


I am surprised that HY beat out rest of world ex US...

But with the US stocks, you can almost throw a blanket over all of them for returns... while typing this I cannot look at them so do not know about volatility...

 

[sengsational]

Here's a look at it where you can see the magnitude of the differences.

 

[ERD50]

Every year, when I see that chart, I can't help but think - there must be some re-balancing strategy that would work! If I buy the lowest, then sell when it rises to X position or Y%, and then buy the lowest again... and/or short the highest, or, or, or !!!!!!!!!!

But then I realize there are people with better programing skills, and bigger computers than I have, and they must be attempting the same thing. When they have the answer, I'll buy shares of their ETF.

-ERD50

 

[Texas Proud]

Here's a look at it where you can see the magnitude of the differences.

Since you are doing great with the charts and numbers, why not one that shows the growth of $10K invested at the beginning...

 

[sengsational]

This is stolen from the spreadsheet that's part of that bogleheads link, above.

 

[Lsbcal]

I've got a good helping of that red line (midcap value, VMVAX).

 

[audreyh1]

This is stolen from the spreadsheet that's part of that bogleheads link, above.

Of course it can really change depending on which year you start.

 

[sengsational]

Absolutely! It's crazy how different the results can be depending on starting point.

 

[IQuit]

Here is another similar resource but with also with these charts for added fun

https://novelinvestor.com/asset-class-returns/

S&P 500 Sector Returns
International Stock Market Returns
Emerging Stock Market Returns

 

[mickeyd]

Thanks for the 2017 chart. I always enjoy peeking at it.


I notice that in 2008 The MSCI Emerging Markets bottomed out @ -53.33 but bounced back in 2009 to top them all @+78.51. Sometime numbers is fun.

 

[Totoro]

What also jumped out to me from that chart is that the S&P 500 beats both the S&P 500 value AND S&P 500 growth indexes.

 

[OldShooter]

Every year, when I see that chart, I can't help but think - there must be some re-balancing strategy that would work! If I buy the lowest, then sell when it rises to X position or Y%, and then buy the lowest again... and/or short the highest, or, or, or !!!!!!!!!!

But then I realize there are people with better programing skills, and bigger computers than I have, and they must be attempting the same thing. When they have the answer, I'll buy shares of their ETF.

-ERD50

Why would you think that someone who "has the answer" would be interested in selling it to you for the cost of an ETF management fee?