When will the future arrive?

[KCGeezer]

I found this an interesting read. While some are excited and some are fearful, it’s a good reminder to just enjoy today. The future will be here soon enough.


The seven deadly sins of AI predictions.


https://blog.evergreengavekal.com/the-seven-deadly-sins-of-ai-predictions/

 

[6miths]

Thanks for posting. An interesting read.

 

[Nemo2]

Next up, 'Mike' from Heinlein's book of 52 years back, The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress.

(How many bookkeepers did online tax programs put out of work?)

 

[NW-Bound]

A very good article, written by an AI researcher, which tempers the wild expectations of the public about what AI can do.

 

[Koogie]

I grew up on dystopian science fiction. The future was to be feared, generally.

Reminds me of a joke from Soviet times.

"Today, though worse than yesterday, is at least better than tomorrow"

 

[marko]

"The future is already here. It's just unevenly distributed" (William Gibson)

 

[Nemo2]

"Today, though worse than yesterday, is at least better than tomorrow"

"This ain't no technological breakdown, oh no, this is the road to hell"

Chris Rea

 

[Freedom56]

Interesting read but automation and changes in technology have been, are, and will continue to displace jobs. The time frame is all relative. How long have humans been on the planet? How many industries and jobs have just vanished due to technology shifts and robotics just in the last 3 decades. I would not underestimate the speed at which robotics are being deployed. Look at industrial robots and their impact on the labor market. Compare employment levels at an automobile production plant from the 60's to the one's today.

On a lighter note, Flippy is already here:

https://mashable.com/2018/03/10/flippy-burger-robot/#xV37xY.EoaqR

They will get the bugs worked out and put it back into operation. The ROI is compelling at an initial cost of $60K (which will decline with volume production) replacing two or three shifts of human labor. Cashiers are already being replaced with self service kiosks.

Banks are closing branches in record numbers as people perform their transactions online. When you call a business today, how many humans are responding to your calls? It's a matter of time before driver-less cars are common. I believe AI will have the most profound impact in medicine over the next few years.

 

[aja8888]

I'll only believe AI is here to stay when my U.S. mail is delivered accurately and consistently.

Also,the last time I called and vendor and got the AI lady, she was not able to fix my problem. Stupid robot!

 

[NW-Bound]

On a lighter note, Flippy is already here:

https://mashable.com/2018/03/10/flippy-burger-robot/#xV37xY.EoaqR

They will get the bugs worked out and put it back into operation. The ROI is compelling at an initial cost of $60K (which will decline with volume production) replacing two or three shifts of human labor. Cashiers are already being replaced with self service kiosks...

Yes, I saw that video too. But Flippy's capability is very limited. He only flips the patties, but cannot get them from the fridge, put the cheese slices on top, nor assemble the burgers with all the add-ons.

We have had robots doing routine and simple tasks like this for a while, such as painting and welding car chassis. And after 40 years, car manufacturers still use people on the assembly line.

So, what happens is the robots do the menial work, freeing humans to do better work. Less boredom, no carpal tunnel syndrome. Win-win situation.

 

[Freedom56]

Yes, I saw that video too. But Flippy's capability is very limited. He only flips the patties, but cannot get them from the fridge, put the cheese slices on top, nor assemble the burgers with all the add-ons.

We have had robots doing routine and simple tasks like this for a while, such as painting and welding car chassis. And after 40 years, car manufacturers still use people on the assembly line.

So, what happens is the robots do the menial work, freeing humans to do better work. Less boredom, no carpal tunnel syndrome. Win-win situation.

Pretty soon Flippy is going to do all that and give back and neck massages during idle time.

 

[ncbill]

Pretty soon Flippy is going to do all that and give back and neck massages during idle time.

"Flippy, make me a sammich..."

"and then a backrub"

 

[NW-Bound]

Pretty soon Flippy is going to do all that and give back and neck massages during idle time.

If Flippy has the dexterity to do all that, I would rather that he goes change Grandpa's diaper while I make my own hamburger.

 

[marko]

But Flippy's capability is very limited. He only flips the patties, but cannot get them from the fridge, put the cheese slices on top, nor assemble the burgers with all the add-ons.

Until you re-think how to cook a hamburger. The way a dishwasher does dishes has no similarity to how a human would do it.

 

[harley]

The future will not be here until I have a jet car.

 

[NW-Bound]

Until you re-think how to cook a hamburger. The way a dishwasher does dishes has no similarity to how a human would do it.

Sure. But a factory that turns out precooked hamburger patties uses conveyor belts and all sorts of handling mechanism that's more than a hamburger joint can afford and need. There are already specialized automated food factories that make all sorts of processed food, but it will be a while until they can build a universal robot to replace a human cook in an ordinary kitchen to make anything and everything that is spelled out in Julia Child's cookbook.

And a dishwasher still needs human hands to load it, and to empty and stack the dishes into the cupboard.

None of this contradicts what I suggested earlier; that is robots will complement what humans do and take over the tedious and dirty work that humans do not care to do. It will be a while before robots can truly replace humans.

 

[Freedom56]

Momentum Machines, up in San Francisco is designing a better burger robot.

https://www.geek.com/tech/400-burger-per-hour-robot-will-put-teenagers-out-of-work-1703546/

Automation has been incrementally reducing the need for touch labor. When I started my career, the circuit card assembly line was all manual. Even hybrid circuit assembly was manual. Then came auto insertion machines, wave soldering machines, surface mount technology, automated inspection and testing. Humans were loading machines with components and removing finished products. Now they just outsource to contract manufacturers to save even more money. Businesses want to reduce touch labor as much as possible. The fast food industry is moving in that direction. Japan is investing billions on robotics technology to deal with their their aging population.

 

[NW-Bound]

The trend towards automation will continue. We have been using machines to reduce our labor ever since the wheel was invented for the ox cart. The use of the word "robot" implies a certain intelligence that most of these automated machines really do not have nor need. There's no AI in many of the factory production machines in use now.

In the following movie scene, the miserable human slaves would be replaced by steam engines, then diesel engines that did not have any AI. One would move a throttle lever to command "Battle Speed", "Attack Speed", and "Ramming Speed". There's no need for AI to understand the captain's vocal command.

 

[Freedom56]

There are super computers (they don't look like robot in the conventional sense) with very advanced AI. Watson is a good example. Thirty years ago chess programs were good but nowhere at the level of humans. Today they are better than humans. Radiology and diagnostic imaging is an area where AI will be making in-roads. Warehouse distribution centers are being run more and more by robots (Amazon Robotics). Financial auditing and accounting will be replaced by AI software. The list goes on... Resistance is futile...

 

[Taxman59]

I think the future got a bit closer this morning. All of my clocks shot ahead an hour!

 

[HFWR]

Now!

No wait, now!

Er, now?

 

[GrayHare]

The most effective way to delay job automation might be to eliminate the minimum wage, but that seems unlikely to happen.

Customer service automation is encouraged by the quantity of requests for basic assistance. Those who have worked in tech support will tell you there is a reason the tech help section of user manuals (where they still exist) so often begin with "Is the unit plugged in?"

 

[Mdlerth]

Once the AI discovers beer, it's done.

When you call a business today, how many humans are responding to your calls?

Generally two-point-something. The pre-programmed phone system pretty much never addresses what I call about. Neither does the first human operator I reach after The Robot transfers me to The People. The second human operator succeeds about three quarters of the time.

The OP's referenced article made a wonderful point about the oft-feared Singularity. Why should anyone expect there will be only one super-intelligent AI running amok? Surely there will be plenty of other AIs who view the rogue one as a threat to themselves as well and unite to clobber it. Should make for an entertaining spectacle...

...until the last surviving one decides to cut my SS.

 

[retiredunder50]

My third grade teacher told me that in the future the US would be fully committed to the metric system and that we would all get to places via flying cars. I'm still waiting for the future to arrive.

 

[KCGeezer]

Interesting and humorous discussion so far. My questions are what industries/companies will lead the way and gain the biggest benefits? Will they be different for the changes 5 vs 15 years from now?