Space Force

[aaronc879]

Apparently it's really going to happen. [mod edit] The DOD is to begin the process of adding a 6th branch of the military: Space Force. Any ideas on companies that could go up in value a lot due to the billions of dollars likely to be put into this endeavour?
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/18/pre...ing-space-force-as-sixth-military-branch.html

 

[joeea]

Any ideas on companies that could go up in value a lot due to the billions of dollars likely to be put into this endeavour?

The same companies that service the Air Force would be likely to service the Legion of Outer Space Cadets.

Don't be in any hurry to invest. Budget process and all...

 

[HawkeyeNFO]

Ex-member of the Navy's Space Cadre here....lots of money in this. The annual satellite convention in Washington, DC is huge, and it's not the only one. 340 companies were represented.

http://2019.satshow.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/76/2018/04/32227-SAT18-Post-Show-1-Pager.pdf

Because of the way our defense budget is worked, I see nothing but massive growth in space funding. The Space Force can compete directly with, and not within, the other DoD branches when asking for money.

 

[njhowie]

Because of the way our defense budget is worked, I see nothing but massive growth in space funding, because the Space Force can compete directly with, and not within, the other DoD branches when asking for money.

And where is the money going to come from?

 

[joeea]

And where is the money going to come from?

There's only one place it could come from - the same place the money for the other five military branches comes from. Just more of it.

 

[MRG]

I'll invest in space cakes long before the space force.

 

[HawkeyeNFO]

joeea is 100% correct.

Revenue and expenditures on the federal budget have absolutely nothing to do with each other. No need to balance the budget, unless inflation really becomes a factor.

 

[OldShooter]

... Any ideas on companies that could go up in value a lot due to the billions of dollars likely to be put into this endeavour? ... l

None, probably. This news has already been factored into current stock prices. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/efficientmarkethypothesis.asp

Also, most of this will not be new money. There are space programs of one sort or another all over the services and the spooks. (Did you know that the GPS program originated in the Navy?) The idealist view says that the result of this action will be better coordination and better financial efficiency. The cynic view says this will just be one more constituency trying to shoulder its way to a place at the public trough. Even with the cynic's view, the impact due to the reorg will not be large.

Siegel's "Growth Trap" scenario also may apply: Siegel on "The Growth Trap" – Validea's Guru Investor Blog

 

[joeea]

None, probably. This news has already been factored into current stock prices. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/efficientmarkethypothesis.asp

Also, most of this will not be new money. There are space programs of one sort or another all over the services and the spooks. (Did you know that the GPS program originated in the Navy?) The idealist view says that the result of this action will be better coordination and better financial efficiency. The cynic view says this will just be one more constituency trying to shoulder its way to a place at the public trough. Even with the cynic's view, the impact due to the reorg will not be large.

Call me cynical, but I can't imagine an additional military branch will somehow result in better coordination and better financial efficiency.

And it will be as large as Congress allows it to be. I'm guessing "not large" is an idealist viewpoint.

 

[njhowie]

Call me cynical, but I can't imagine an additional military branch will somehow result in better coordination and better financial efficiency.

And it will be as large as Congress allows it to be. I'm guessing "not large" is an idealist viewpoint.

Call me cynical as well - simply looks like another mechanism to attempt to justify another major increase in defense spending.

 

[Dash man]

Much of the Space Force will come from existing units, such as the Space Command in the Air Force.

 

[OldShooter]

... And it will be as large as Congress allows it to be. I'm guessing "not large" is an idealist viewpoint. ...

I don't know where you got "not large" referring to the budget. What I said was that IMO the impact of the reorg will not be financially large. The beans will just end up under different walnut shells.

The space budget is and will continue to be large, but just as it has been in the past, it is subject to the DoD and Executive Branch budget skirmishes and the occasional congressional plus-up because a contractor or a base is in a particular district. Really nothing new there.

All that said, the cost of space systems will continue to climb. Anti-satellite, for example, is an area of great emphasis for China and Russia. To the degree they are successful in battle they can reduce the US's space assets to level the playing field to their much lower level of capability. Surveillance assets, too, are expensive and valuable. Finally, we cannot continue relying on Russia for rocket engines and space transportation.

But, to the OP's question, people already know all this and the potential for contractors is almost certainly already reflected (or over-estimated!) in their stock prices. IOW, probably no dynamite investment opportunities.

 

[samclem]

IOW, probably no dynamite investment opportunities.

Think tiny: Some company will get an order for thousands of uniforms, new rank insignia, baubles of all kinds will be made by somebody. There's a fair-to-middling chance of a new HQs buiding somewhere (probably on an existing base--maybe an expansion of the USAF Space Command HQs (Peterson AFB, CO), and maybe they'll set up their own academy (more milcon, etc).


Okay, most of this is really small fish, and the "plays" aren't with publicly traded companies.

 

[NYEXPAT]

IMO,We are already turning out more "Space Cadets" then possible future jobs.

 

[jim584672]

That can mean only one thing...
Prepare for ludicrous speed

 

[GravitySucks]

Call me cynical, but I can't imagine an additional military branch will somehow result in better coordination and better financial efficiency.

And it will be as large as Congress allows it to be. I'm guessing "not large" is an idealist viewpoint.

Large enough that companies will place facilities in each congressional territory.

 

[harley]

I don't believe this will happen for at least 20 years. I mean seriously, we don't even have working jetpacks yet, not to mention force fields and ray guns. And jetpacks are still (and always) 20 years away from being available. Absurd to even be talking about it.

 

[joeea]

I don't know where you got "not large" referring to the budget. What I said was that IMO the impact of the reorg will not be financially large. The beans will just end up under different walnut shells.

That's one guess.

A more cynical guess would say that having six military branches would imply a bigger budget than having five. A more cynical guess would say that a large financial impact is how these things tend to go.

 

[GalaxyBoy]

Requires a bill to be passed by Congress first.

To infinity and beyond!!

 

[mamadogmamacat]

BA and LMT have the bulk of space contracts as it is, and I expect this will remain the case. There are quite a number of smaller players as well. I own both LMT and BA and spent the bulk of my career at one of them and dealt a lot with the other as well because of shared govt contracts. Reshuffling on the govt side will only add costs for taxpayers. As a retired Aerospace Engr, I find this decision somewhat disappointing. The Air Force was handling space based defense issues well enough (they also do the bulk of our cyber defense work).

 

[marko]

IIRC wasn't the USAF a precursor to NASA? Seems in the early days all the astronauts were active military guys and early space shots were military-type operations.

So maybe this is Back To The Future?

 

[braumeister]

Not just USAF -- they were a varied group. But yes, all military:

The first seven NASA astronauts were ... each a "superb physical specimen" with an IQ above 130, and the ability to function well both as part of a team and solo. Grissom, Cooper, and Slayton were Air Force pilots; Shepard, Carpenter, and Schirra were Navy pilots, and Glenn was a Marine Corps pilot.

 

[Murf2]

https://youtu.be/2ftvh9eWkAc

I'm still pissed. Popular Mechanics said I'd have a flying car years ago.

I don't believe this will happen for at least 20 years. I mean seriously, we don't even have working jetpacks yet, not to mention force fields and ray guns. And jetpacks are still (and always) 20 years away from being available. Absurd to even be talking about it.

 

[aaronc879]

To infinity and beyond!!

I wonder how much "Guardian of The Galaxy" pays?

 

[Totoro]

I don't believe this will happen for at least 20 years. I mean seriously, we don't even have working jetpacks yet, not to mention force fields and ray guns. And jetpacks are still (and always) 20 years away from being available. Absurd to even be talking about it.

jetpack:

Planet scale forcefield:

laser gun .. not exactly a ray gun, but still: