I'm getting spooked about the markets

[jjflyman]

I've had a very uneasy feeling for the past few weeks. I don't have a lot in the market anymore compared to many of you (about 100K), but it's significant amount to me.
It is spread out in a few funds, a few ETF's, and couple stock (XOM,T)
Most of my money is now in laddered CD's. The online rates (hopefully) will be getting close to 4% soon.

I have nothing to back up my feeling, I know the economy is going good, but I must have a little PTSD in me from the last few market drops, I was much heavier invested then, and like everyone else, I lost a ton.

Anyway, I think I am going to pull out over the next few weeks/months and be done with it, I don't want to go through another correction. I don't have the risk tolerance that I did 30 years ago.
Good luck to all!

 

[REWahoo]

Emotions (feelings) and market investing don't mix well. The number of posts like yours that foresaw something that didn't happen far outnumber those who can come back later and say, "I told you so".

However, I understand you have to do what allows you to sleep well. Sweet dreams.

 

[Oz investor]

whatever amount that is important to you IS important to you ,

i have been suspecting a drop since 2013 , but i also needed to stay in the market because it was the only mid-term growth in town ( at an acceptable risk and liquidity )

the next crash will be my first but that only means i am extra cautious

good luck i would love to tell my disaster plan will work .. i really would

 

[97guns]

I pulled out 17 years ago and have no need for gains at this point in my life, my main and only concern is preservation. I have nothing against the market, it propelled me to where I am today.

 

[Oz investor]

i need the gains but will be unlikely to recover from any major losses ( say 50% plus )

the next big crash will certainly be educational for me

 

[Dash man]

Well, I just put another $60k in the market, in 529 plans for my grandkids. Fortunately that is for a longer time frame. For my retirement funds, I still have about 65% in the market, with the balance in CDs, MM and high yield savings accounts. We can last ten years if need be on the safer funds.

 

[marko]

and like everyone else, I lost a ton.

I didn't lose a dime and I don't think 'everyone' here lost anything either.

My neighbor, OTOH lost a ton because she sold everything on the last week of February 2009.

"...a feeling...", like hope, is not a strategy. Figure out your risk tolerance and position accordingly.

 

[Dtail]

You need to do what is comfortable for you. Additionally if 100k represents a significant amount to you, then all the more reason you need to do what makes you sleep well at night. Nothing wrong with that.

 

[COcheesehead]

I have all I need for the next 10 years in bonds or short term investments. The rest of my portfolio will ride the waves of the market...worry free. Lived to tell the tale of ‘87, 91, ‘00, ‘08.... Cover yourself for the near term, but don’t forget about the future. Markets always reach new highs.

 

[Another Reader]

I try to be diversified and nondenominational in my investments. I have mostly real estate and equities, with some cash and treasuries to cover drops in income and any buying opportunities. Plus two pensions and Social Security, which I consider as investments because I "bought" them, even though they are out of my control.

A 50 percent plus crash across all asset classes will cause a lot of tears, but not starvation. If there is cash available, I will be backing up the truck to load up whatever is on sale.

 

[Newventurer]

whatever amount that is important to you IS important to you ,

i have been suspecting a drop since 2013

Me too, I’ve been wrong for a long time

 

[flintnational]

OP, are you permanently changing your asset allocation?

Or, are you planning to get back in the market when you believe values are lower?

"Yes" to the first question can represent an appropriate strategy depending on your current situation and your goals*. "Yes" to the second question represents market timing and MT has a poor record and leads to the losses you mentioned in your post.

*A zero stock allocation has lower survival rates over the long term compared to allocations with stock. Make sure your planned new AA will survive. You might want to run your new AA through Firecalc.

 

[HadEnuff]

I've had a very uneasy feeling for the past few weeks. I don't have a lot in the market anymore compared to many of you (about 100K), but it's significant amount to me.
It is spread out in a few funds, a few ETF's, and couple stock (XOM,T)
Most of my money is now in laddered CD's. The online rates (hopefully) will be getting close to 4% soon.

I have nothing to back up my feeling, I know the economy is going good, but I must have a little PTSD in me from the last few market drops, I was much heavier invested then, and like everyone else, I lost a ton.

Anyway, I think I am going to pull out over the next few weeks/months and be done with it, I don't want to go through another correction. I don't have the risk tolerance that I did 30 years ago.
Good luck to all!

I pulled out 17 years ago and have no need for gains at this point in my life, my main and only concern is preservation. I have nothing against the market, it propelled me to where I am today.

I hear you loud and clear. It really comes down to, IMO, whether or not you "need" the gains, or can afford or not afford to ride out a big drop. In 2000 I could afford to ride it out because I was only 47 years old, and planned on working and funding my retirement accounts for another 15 years. It was the classic "buying opportunity". Well, now I'm on the cusp of my 65th birthday, I'm living on my accumulated assets, and I can ill afford to lose a huge chunk that might take 10 or 15 years to rebound from, while I am pulling out other assets to live on.
I can survive missing out on part of the big run-up, much more comfortably than I would survive losing a ton of money in a rerun of what happened between 2000 and 2015.

 

[pb4uski]

.... and like everyone else, I lost a ton. ....

I didn't lose a dime and I don't think 'everyone' here lost anything either. ...

+1 I had a ton of paper losses that utimately reversed... those who stayed the course were handsomely rewarded... those who panicked lost money. I know a couple people in their 70s at the time who sold, took big losses and never got back in.

 

[gauss]

Perhaps instead of playing individual stocks/ETFS and trying to time the market, move it all into a nice balanced fund.

That way you can rest easy that you will automatically be buying low (when the market goes down) and selling high (when the market increases). You will be under no obligation to "react" to market behavior because it will be automatically happening for you.

This is the change that I made to my investing strategy when I ERd.

Now that I have FIRED and changed to my balanced fund strategy I have much more financial peace in my life.

-gauss

 

[Totoro]

I share your concern. With US inflation approaching 3% and the Shiller P/E above 30, with are approaching a negative real yield. That's not good news.

To fully explain: a P/E of 30 = 3.33% earnings yield, minus 3% inflation (roughly, again) is 0.33% positive earnings yield.

That almost never happened, and when it happened within a year bad things tended to materialize.

In addition, TIPS have a yield of >0.8% so in effect those treasury bonds are yielding more than stocks. Ask Benjamin Graham what he would think about that, and you'd get a very clear answer.

I'm still exposed in indexes though (~20% of NW), to minimize regrets.

 

[steveark]

Market timing

Let me tell you a likely scenario. You get out now, the market goes up another 20% over the next two years then drops 15% and you get back in, then the market drops another 40% and you get back out. You've lost half your money. The problem isn't getting out at a decent time so much as when do you get back in?

 

[Totoro]

Presumably OP knows himself well enough to assess his likely response to market implosions or runups, and adjust. Let's call it investing wisdom.

For myself, I believe I have the calibration roughly correct too, with (some) historical evidence that I can sit on my arse and do nothing even when getting hammered.

 

[Choices]

Yeah, I know the ride cannot last. Expected the big downturn in 2016... never happened. Completely retired now with enough in cash and equivalents to last 5 years. SS and RMDs come on in about 4 years. We will ride it out.
We always have, except for one time around 1987 or 88. Learned my lesson, cost me $50.00.
As wiser folks than I have said, you gotta do whatever is in your comfort zone. We are not far enough ahead to go to all cash/bonds, etc. not that I would anyway. Wasn’t it Peter Lynch who said investing in bonds was just as much work, with half the return?

 

[Dawg52]

I share your concern.


I'm still exposed in indexes though (~20% of NW), to minimize regrets.

I've been spooked for years. My fixed income assets along with SS is enough to take me to the house. I keep a similar amount in stocks as you for growth.

 

[big-papa]

Ask yourself why you hold stocks in the first place and why you have a certain percentage of them in your asset allocation. Did you do so without considering what a correction might do to your portfolio? If so, then most advice is to stay the course. If you didn't, then maybe it's time to re-evaluate your need and willingness to take risk and consider an asset allocation you'd be able to sleep with. Alternatively do you have a systematic, non-emotional method to increase/decrease your exposure to stock (i.e. market timing).

Over on Bogleheads, there is a recommendation to create a "contract to yourself", also known as an IPS (investment policy statement) that outlines exactly what your plan is. Pretty sure "I'm scared" wouldn't be considered a plan. Not foolproof, but it helps lots of people....

 

[traineeinvestor]

The markets spook me every day ... but I've learned from experience that the time to be really worried is when it all looks good and I'm not feeling worried.

 

[street]

It is tough thing to even think about. I have been in since 1980 and I have been through the lows. I just kept adding and I never pulled out when the times were bad.

I can say I'm very conservative and I'm not a risk taker/short cut person in general in my daily life. I can say after the first large drop in the markets I was told not to do anything. The results turned out fine and my money kept growing. So after that one sad down turn my confidence grew and now I just wait it out.

I also gave enough money to live without touching any investments if I wanted too. That came about from not panicking and folding when times got rough.

 

[VanWinkle]

Perhaps instead of playing individual stocks/ETFS and trying to time the market, move it all into a nice balanced fund.

That way you can rest easy that you will automatically be buying low (when the market goes down) and selling high (when the market increases). You will be under no obligation to "react" to market behavior because it will be automatically happening for you.

This is the change that I made to my investing strategy when I ERd.

Now that I have FIRED and changed to my balanced fund strategy I have much more financial peace in my life.

-gauss

Great point gauss!!

A 2 year cash cushion and a conservative balance fund like Wellesley Income
has made lots of retirees happy over the years. No one knows if the future will be the same, but it is a place reduce emotions and poor behavior.

 

[Markola]

I share your concern. With US inflation approaching 3% and the Shiller P/E above 30, with are approaching a negative real yield. That's not good news.

To fully explain: a P/E of 30 = 3.33% earnings yield, minus 3% inflation (roughly, again) is 0.33% positive earnings yield.

That almost never happened, and when it happened within a year bad things tended to materialize.

In addition, TIPS have a yield of >0.8% so in effect those treasury bonds are yielding more than stocks. Ask Benjamin Graham what he would think about that, and you'd get a very clear answer.

I'm still exposed in indexes though (~20% of NW), to minimize regrets.

Did you mean to use the Schiller P/E in the first paragraph and the P/E in the second? Of course, they are different things. S&P 500 P/E right now is 23.74, about the same as one year ago. And I’m seeing a yield of 1.82% on the S&P 500 presently.