LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

Order executed and price is already up! I've made money! :)

I typically do not have the broker automatically re-invest distributions. Instead, I use them for many purposes. Here at year-end, those purposes are (a) paying property taxes, (b) donating to charity, (c) paying this semester's college tuition, (d) funding children's Roth IRAs, (e) paying Christmas credit cards bills, (f) paying expenses while all of January paycheck goes into 401(k), and stuff like that.

This VWO trade is supposed to be short-term and I may need the money in a couple of weeks to pay a large bill or something.

If you are not interested in market timing, then you should not be reading this thread. :)
 
haha. I am totally subscribed to this thread...and I do believe in timing based on knowledge.

I am not into short term trading yet... but you are helping me get there lol.
 
LOL! said:
Order executed and price is already up! I've made money! :)
Click to expand...
I just sold the shares of VWO (emerging markets index) purchased back on Jan 2. I didn't lose money, but I didn't make any money to speak of.

The reasons to sell were:
1. VWO did not really pop up after I bought it. I got tired of waiting for that.
2. I need the money to pay for college expenses and car repair bills.
 
So VWO is down about 2.8% from yesterday, so I intend to buy it back already later today for another short-term trade with the intent to sell if it goes up any in the next week or so. I'll post an update later today. Wish me luck!
 
Good luck! I bought VWO today at the low (so far)
 
OK, order executed. I used a different account than yesterday, so I am not free-riding.

Once again, I intend to sell these shares within a week or two. I just don't have a good feeling about this, but I trade mechanically as I hope folks can see from this newsletter.

@Fermion, Good luck back at ya!
 
"in an uncertain world, tactical change should be made sparingly, and only if you are prepared to take the risk of being wrong."

Jack Bogle
 
"I've never really wanted to go to Japan. Simply because I don't like eating fish."

Britney Spears
 
I appreciate threads in which people share their interests and experience. This is one of them. The photography thread is another.
 
Great post!
I like following the markets. Getting ready to do active trading with play money. Learning more about options, ETFs and other investment vehicles is the objective. Always enjoy learning a new hobby, so I'm with y'all market timing wackos!
 
LOL! said:
Bad news! Emerging Markets buy on a dip got a plug today on finance.yahoo.com:
Buy the (next) dip in emerging-markets stocks | Michael Santoli - Yahoo Finance
Click to expand...
I've been toying with the idea of doing a little bottom fishing with VWO, but it's unclear how long this January selloff will continue. If I buy, it would be a long term play, probably a shift from developed to emerging markets while keeping my overall international percentage the same.

Here is another Yahoo finance article that doesn't exactly suggest that now is the time to buy.

The sell-off raised the prospect of a repeat of moves last June when developing country stocks fell almost 18 percent and hit global shares. This came after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled its intention to scale back the bond-buying stimulus that had led investors to chase higher returns in emerging market assets.

"We expect the emerging market sell-off to get worse before it starts getting better," said Lorne Baring, managing director of B Capital Wealth Management in Geneva.

"There's definitely contagion spreading and it's crossing over from emerging to developed in terms of sentiment."
Click to expand...

Emerging market sell-off spills over to Europe, U.S. - Yahoo Finance
 
With today's sell-off of more than 2.5%, I have entered an order to rebalance from a US total bond index fund into a US extended market index fund.

Since this is in a 401(k), there are no tax consequences, but there are short-term redemption fees if I need to sell. Thus, if the extended market pops up next week, I may sell in another account some US equities in order to book profits in a round-about way.

If this is a falling knife, I am prepared to catch it now, drop it, and catch it again and again and again.
 
I will purchase EM and equities in general when required to match my overall AA. Repeat.... Repeat.... Repeat.
As I get older this is not as much fun anymore.
 
Fermion said:
"I've never really wanted to go to Japan. Simply because I don't like eating fish."

Britney Spears
Click to expand...

Isn't she dead? Or maybe that's Paris Hilton? One of the Kardashian/Jenner train wrecks? No?
 
My fingers are bleeding, but I bought some more extended market index fund shares in an account different from the 1/24 purchase.
 
Still in the middle of a boring dollar cost averaging program, I bought Fidelity REIT investor, that purchase was filled last Friday, of course it's down today. But the single-life expectancy for MRDs is almost 30 years, so I don't think I will change a thing.
 
Trying to figure out how to buy more EPP without adding too much more complexity; the walls between taxable, IRA, Roth, 401k, spouse versions of the same, are getting in the way.
 
I'm thinking volatility will be greater this year due to so much uncertainty, so into a ViX type ETF I plunge. Playing with small $ mostly for fun. I like seeing bigger daily price movements.
 
LOL! said:
My fingers are bleeding, but I bought some more extended market index fund shares in an account different from the 1/24 purchase.
Click to expand...

Earlier today sold half of the VWO that I purchased in late January for a small profit. Because I bought too early, I did not make as much as folks who bought VWO at the YTD low on Feb 3rd, but I didn't lose money either.

Also sold today the extended markets index ETF shares purchased earlier this week on Monday at the YTD low. I got 3 partial fills, which I like because it shows I picked a limit price that folks were reluctant to pay. This was a nice 4-day gain.

The positions opened on Jan 23rd and 24th are still open and slightly negatively, but no worries since I have realized more than enough gains by today's sells to have a very nice net gain.

I hope everyone had fun with this dip and recovery. It was really too quick though.
 
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