LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

[LOL!]

This morning I tried using a price trigger alert for the first time with the alert sent to my cell phone. I got the alert message on my cell phone when the market opened.

I used the 0.5% drop that I mentioned yesterday, so then I investigated what I could buy today for no commission while still having the ability to unwind the equivalent trade at the end of the day for no commission, too.

I saw that I could buy IVV (S&P500 iShares) in an IRA for no commission and sell more FUSVX in my 401(k) for no commission. So I submitted a limit order for some IVV a few cents below where it was trading. Surprisingly, it executed 4 seconds later as a few partial orders of non-round lots and went back up. (I will have to hold IVV for at least 30 days to keep it no commission.)

I've already made my lunch money. Let's see if dinner gets taken away from me.

 

[LOL!]

Well, I lost my lunch and dinner in the last hour of trading. I did not unwind the trade, so I still own IVV.

I can rationalize that yesterday's exchange avoided more losses than if I had done nothing the past 2 days plus I made money in the bond fund.

 

[NW-Bound]

Yesterday, the S&P went down -0.86%, while my equity portion was a tad better at -0.71%.

Today, the S&P went down -0.40%, while my equity portion went up 0.24%. Some beaten down stocks and also international stocks rally today.

Biotech sector went down worse than the S&P. I waited to short it, and missed out on some good money. Will it go down more, or rebound? Darn, this market timing thing is never that easy.

 

[LOL!]

The Fidelity Spartan Advantage S&P500 fund FUSVX was down 0.83% today. I am hoping there was an early distribution of about 0.43% since the S&P500 didn't drop that much.

In the past couple of years there has a been a distribution around April 3rd or 4th. If it turns out there was no distribution, then this would be quite annoying. And since I have no one else to complain to about it, you all get to read about it here.

 

[LOL!]

Update on the FUSVX higher than expected drop of 0.83%: I see a dividend paid of slightly more than 0.43% this morning in my account, but the Fidelity web site does not show that distribution yet for this fund in the "Fees and Distributions" tab. I will monitor to see how long it takes them to update their web site. I feel better about not losing money, but I am still annoyed that Fidelity is not forthcoming with information on its web site. I now see that Morningstar.com notes this recent dividend in its charting tool.

Update on Fidelity web site: Yesterday's dividend is now posted in the Fees and Distributions tab for FUSVX after I ate breakfast.

Also this suggests a way to avoid getting a taxable dividend since IVV paid a dividend as well, but a few days earlier. My recent purchase of IVV was after it went ex-dividend, so I did not get the IVV dividend. One may write, "but aren't dividends good and if you sell before getting the dividend wouldn't you have to pay capital gains taxes anyways?" The answer is "Definitely maybe, but it will depend on your own personal situation." For instance, I have enough carryover losses so that I will be offsetting realized cap gains for quite a while. Thus the maneuver to avoid dividends which would increase my AGI might be worth it if my AGI was butting up against some limits for tax credits.

 

[NW-Bound]

I went long on biotech earlier today. Not much, but just enough to hopefully get some more gas money for my gas-guzzling RV. I will post when I bail out.

Meanwhile, emerging markets seem to be doing great today and the last couple days last week. The retreat of the US dollars helps too. Today, my equity portion is up 1.2% relative to the S&P 0.9% as I write this. I also beat the S&P the same way bthe last few trading sessions.

I am not planning to go to Europe this year, but perhaps the next. Have I missed out on doing some Euro hedging to lock in the low euro? The Euro went was low as $1.04 a couple of weeks ago, but pushing $1.10 now.

 

[LOL!]

Today is a strange day. An hour before the market opened, futures suggested the S&P500 would be down about 0.75%. European markets are closed for the Easter holiday. I expected a very subdued day. But I am not complaining; I am simply puzzled.

 

[audreyh1]

Today is a strange day. An hour before the market opened, futures suggested the S&P500 would be down about 0.75%. European markets are closed for the Easter holiday. I expected a very subdued day. But I am not complaining; I am simply puzzled.

It's the old "the markets confound the most people" trick. Everyone was expecting a big sell off and drop in interest rates, so neither happened.

 

[LOL!]

Maybe it was news that Greece will not miss its debt payment this week?
Or the Iran negotiation news?
Or the US jobs news which might make it harder to raise interest rates?
Or …?

 

[utrecht]

I went long on biotech earlier today. Not much, but just enough to hopefully get some more gas money for my gas-guzzling RV. I will post when I bail out.

Meanwhile, emerging markets seem to be doing great today and the last couple days last week. The retreat of the US dollars helps too. Today, my equity portion is up 1.2% relative to the S&P 0.9% as I write this. I also beat the S&P the same way bthe last few trading sessions.

I am not planning to go to Europe this year, but perhaps the next. Have I missed out on doing some Euro hedging to lock in the low euro? The Euro went was low as $1.04 a couple of weeks ago, but pushing $1.10 now.

I think you got this one wrong. I bought puts 2 weeks ago and am not selling yet. If IBB falls another 5-6% I'll probably get out. I could change my mind and get out sooner but right now IBB feels very sick relative to the rest of the market. If the market pulls back , IBB will get killed.

 

[NW-Bound]

Sold the Biotech today pocketing 6%, when I saw the thing turn around and start to drop. The gain got me a few tanks of gas for the guzzler RV, not enough for the whole trip but every bit helps.

I also sold a bit of emerging market ETFs a couple of days ago, a bit too soon as they surged another 7%. Darn, market timing is hard!

 

[utrecht]

Im still holding my IBB puts and still have a decent profit but obviously they are cheaper than they were a couple days ago

 

[Rothman]

utrecht, why do you say IBB looks sick? More M&A activity in the space, other data says market not likely to drop near term. Euro rates making it hard to raise rates in US very much without driving dollar even stronger. What am I missing?


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum

 

[utrecht]

utrecht, why do you say IBB looks sick? More M&A activity in the space, other data says market not likely to drop near term. Euro rates making it hard to raise rates in US very much without driving dollar even stronger. What am I missing?


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum

I was talking about the very short term (since this is a market timing thread). IBB has been in a very nice upward trend for quite a while but recently it went parabolic. It had to pull back, which it did. It dropped about 10% but now has recovered somewhat. I really thought it would fall further. Im still holding puts with a decent profit but nothing like I had a week ago. IBB is back at the top of the channel now so any misstep in the market and I expect another 5-10% pullback in IBB.

Again, Im only talking short term. Long term, I have no clue.

 

[NW-Bound]

And I sold my biotech ETF too soon. It surged another 4.7% since I sold it yesterday. Son of a gun!

Now, I have to wait a while to short it.

 

[karluk]

I sold a significant amount of VTSAX yesterday, partly to do some needed rebalancing and partly because I expect to buy a car in the next few weeks. So this was by no means a market timing move. However, seeing that the S&P 500 closed at a record high yesterday, I decided for my own amusement to post it here so that I can track it as if it were a market timing sale. If the market continues to climb to new highs before I actually need the money, I will mentally chalk it up to an extra opportunity cost that added to the expense of the car. Conversely, if the market dips enough for me to repurchase my shares at a lower price, my mental bookkeeping will credit me with a favorable trade that, in effect, lowered the price of the car.

 

[utrecht]

I was talking about the very short term (since this is a market timing thread). IBB has been in a very nice upward trend for quite a while but recently it went parabolic. It had to pull back, which it did. It dropped about 10% but now has recovered somewhat. I really thought it would fall further. Im still holding puts with a decent profit but nothing like I had a week ago. IBB is back at the top of the channel now so any misstep in the market and I expect another 5-10% pullback in IBB.

Again, Im only talking short term. Long term, I have no clue.

When I posted this on 4/10 IBB was trading at 358. It has now dropped over 5% to 339. I just sold my May 360 puts for a 46% profit.

 

[NW-Bound]

And I still have my biotech bearish ETF. I bought it more than a week ago. It surged 8% yesterday on bad news with a couple of smaller biotech companies, and that spooked investors. Today, it surged another 4%. I will wait a bit longer.

 

[karluk]

Well, that was fast. Today we found a car that we liked in our price range, so we are now poorer in money but richer in wheels and shiny chrome hubcaps. Taking stock, I see that VTSAX closed today roughly 2/3 of a percent lower than when I sold on Friday. So my "market timing" turned a profit. The amount is paltry, but I feel very fortunate to pick the very best day to sell and have the money available when I needed it.

 

[samclem]

So my "market timing" turned a profit. The amount is paltry, but I feel very fortunate to pick the very best day to sell and have the money available when I needed it.

This is how it starts--innocently enough. Now you've had a taste. Before you know it you'll be tracking 200 day moving averages, Bollinger bands, Elliot waves, and seeing all kinds of patterns in charts.

 

[karluk]

This is how it starts--innocently enough. Now you've had a taste. Before you know it you'll be tracking 200 day moving averages, Bollinger bands, Elliot waves, and seeing all kinds of patterns in charts.

Yes, all of my friends are telling me to open my own hedge fund. Now that I've shown my prowess at trading, investors will be flocking to put their money in the hands of a guy with the Midas touch.

 

[LOL!]

Since the REIT index VNQ has dropped quite a bit (more than 4% in past couple of days) and since the FOMC said interest rates will be stable, I loaded up on VNQ today. It closed UP from my purchase price plus the TIAA-CREF Real Estate account went UP today, too.

This is a bit scary since VNQ is so volatile. This is a short-term trade, so I intend to sell if it goes up within a week or so. If it goes down, then I'm screwed.

 

[NW-Bound]

And I still have my biotech bearish ETF. I bought it more than a week ago. It surged 8% yesterday on bad news with a couple of smaller biotech companies, and that spooked investors. Today, it surged another 4%. I will wait a bit longer.

Sold this biotech short ETF earlier today. I missed its top yesterday, and only got a bitty gain. Oh well.

This market is really crazy, and I should not be doing this short-term trading while RV'ing and not getting ready access to the market.

 

[LOL!]

This is a bit scary since VNQ is so volatile. This is a short-term trade, so I intend to sell if it goes up within a week or so. If it goes down, then I'm screwed.

Started selling these shares of VNQ today that were bought last week. The first tranch got sold at a 2.99% gain for the week.

But it has been dicey with VNQ closing lower than my purchase price earlier this week. I am conflicted about greed and fear, so I want to hold to make more money, but I fear that VNQ will trail lower from here to the end of the day. So i didn't sell all the shares that were purchased, but may sell more later in the day.

Here is a 5-day chart with trading so far today:

We won't know what happens off the right-hand side for a few hours.

 

[aja8888]

The market loved the Friday jobs number as indicated by the feasting on equities.