Wow! Re the market, from today's NYTimes, business section

[palomalou]

“I’ve been telling clients to be in all cash,” said Ian Winer, co-head of equities trading at Wedbush Securities. “There’s too much credit risk out there, S.&P. 500 earnings could be down this year and it seems an increasing possibility that the U.S. could be in a recession in 2017.”“I’ve been telling clients to be in all cash,” said Ian Winer, co-head of equities trading at Wedbush Securities. “There’s too much credit risk out there, S.&P. 500 earnings could be down this year and it seems an increasing possibility that the U.S. could be in a recession in 2017.”

This seems a bit extreme, doesn't it? Of course, absolutely anything can ALWAYS happen.

 

[rodi]

His clients will be pissed if he's wrong.

I'll stick with my 60/40 asset allocation... that 40% should let me ride out a recession.

 

[chilkoot]

I'm shocked, shocked to hear this has been going on.

 

[Coolius]

If his clients do as he says, he still charges a 1% fee ( or whatever he charges ), and he can go to the Bahamas for the entire summer, since he doesn't have to do research or analysis, follow the market, or trade.

Sound like a smart but self serving strategy.

 

[NW-Bound]

His clients will be pissed if he's wrong.

True. But he can get new clients. Rinse and repeat.

 

[imoldernu]

Interesting week coming up...
China FX reserve numbers on Sunday Feb 7, Markets closed for Chinese Lunar New Year all next week.
Possible moment of truth. Serious event... US markets left to balance change, and nervous time for asset managers, until China comes back on-line.

Monday morning could be interesting... or not.

 

[GravitySucks]

His clients will be pissed if he's wrong.

I'll stick with my 60/40 asset allocation... that 40% should let me ride out a recession.

+1

 

[VFK57]

His clients will be pissed if he's wrong.

I'll stick with my 60/40 asset allocation... that 40% should let me ride out a recession.

+1. Not because I have same AA but because jumping left and right usually lead to higher losses.

 

[W2R]

“I’ve been telling clients to be in all cash,” said Ian Winer, co-head of equities trading at Wedbush Securities. “There’s too much credit risk out there, S.&P. 500 earnings could be down this year and it seems an increasing possibility that the U.S. could be in a recession in 2017.”

Yes, S&P500 earnings could be down. So what else is new? It's either up, or it is down. Sort of like a rollercoaster sometimes.

Yes, there is a possibility of a recession in 2017. There also has been a possibility of a recession in every year. There is also a possibility of no recession.

Nothing that he said persuades me to bail on the stock market and go to all cash, and I'm pretty risk averse.

 

[FUEGO]

Recommend 100% cash long enough and you'll be a genius. Eventually. For a short period of time.

 

[Danmar]

There is a talking head for every possible outcome. Some will look like geniuses(they are not) and some will not look like geniuses(true). Better to ignore all this noise.

 

[Senator]

I am going to stay the course. I may be on the right side by going to cash now, but likely I will be on the wrong side on the way up.

Likely, as soon as I sell, it will be the signal for the market to say "all clear" and move to new records.

 

[OrcasIslandBound]

Being 100% in cash is like betting against the long term market. Similar to betting against the house in Vegas. You're probably going to lose.

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Early Retirement Forum mobile app

 

[ziggy29]

Economists have predicted 10 of the last 3 recessions.

 

[ReadyAimFIRE]

Economists have predicted 10 of the last 3 recessions.

That right there tickled my funny bone!

 

[zesty]

Monday morning could be interesting... or not.

Well done, that statement covers 100% of the possible scenarios.

 

[eytonxav]

If he is that pessimistic, why not follow his conviction and put a big % in treasuries if expecting the market to dump. Certainly interest rates won't be headed up in that environment.

 

[OrcasIslandBound]

Despite the obvious seemingly bad idea, for many members of this forum, to follow such advice, I have a coworker who did follow this advice and is all in cash. He is my boss. A very intelligent man otherwise. He followed this advice during the great recession in 2008 and has been in all cash ever since. He probably out earns me by at least 2X but, judging by what he has told me, he has a lot less saved for retirement then my family does.

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Early Retirement Forum mobile app

 

[nun]

I have friends that are financial professionals and they are now wondering if "China is oversold"....whether "S&P 500" is over sold and when would be the time to buy and sell. I told them I bought Vanguard Total Stock market because my allocation was now off a bit. The response was a rather derisory "well anyone can rebalance". And that's exactly the point, anyone can do it and that really annoys financial professionals. I'm sticking with at least 70% equities and I'll probably let it drift up to 80% over then next decade because I have a liability matching portfolio.

 

[HadEnuff]

I am going to stay the course. I may be on the right side by going to cash now, but likely I will be on the wrong side on the way up.

Likely, as soon as I sell, it will be the signal for the market to say "all clear" and move to new records.

Absolutely agree. My position as well.

 

[ejman]

Since I seem to have an uncanny ability to control the stock market by virtue of my actions i.e. I sell it goes up, I buy it goes down I try to keep the market confused by maintaining a 50/50 equities bonds allocation

 

[jkern]

I would love to be in all cash when the market goes down and all equities when the market goes up. I just haven't been able to figure out what the market will do in the future.

 

[mystang52]

I'll echo the general theme of the responses here. I'm 50-50 and quite content. I'd go dizzy-crazy if I read and heeded all of these supposed experts. Life is a lot easier ignoring them (and, I do not think that is a head-in-the-sand attitude).

 

[enginerd]

Economists have predicted 10 of the last 3 recessions.

Sounds like good advice...they must be correct in 333% of their predictions.

 

[harley]

Despite the obvious seemingly bad idea, for many members of this forum, to follow such advice, I have a coworker who did follow this advice and is all in cash. He is my boss. A very intelligent man otherwise. He followed this advice during the great recession in 2008 and has been in all cash ever since. He probably out earns me by at least 2X but, judging by what he has told me, he has a lot less saved for retirement then my family does.

That's the hard part, all right. I managed to go largely to cash in 2007 just before the crash, although it was the result of a major financial transaction vs. a planned escape from the market. But still, I was sitting at about 35% cash when the markets dropped, so I figured I'd be smart and just wait it out. But deciding to get back in at all, much less when, was so difficult that I missed a large part of the market gains before I decided to DCA back in. And the result of the DCA is that I paid more to get back in than I would have by just lump summing back. Hopefully I've learned my lesson, but we'll see what the future holds.