New expert investor who's not sure what he's doing

[Boho]

I have way too many opinions based on too short a time doing internet research, but I'm semi-confident about handling my own investments. I've found once again that the most active forum in a topic I'm interested in is a special interest forum. This one is too, but at least I'm not banned here.

What is FIRE?

http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f47/acronyms-and-slang-frequently-used-on-the-forum-34884.html

Financially Independent, Retired Early

Oh. I'm not going for that, but if you know how to make that happen then I assume you can answer general investment questions too.

 

[ERD50]

Welcome. What questions do you have? FIRE away!

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

I already got my main question answered in another section. It's pretty much what I figured.


I guess if I had to pick another question it would be what country's index fund do you think would make a good investment for the coming years, not including the U.S. I believe a little market timing could work and I want to weight my portfolio a little bit towards countries that Trump will have the least effect on, but I want more reason than that before I buy a foreign index fund.

 

[NW-Bound]

Goldman Sachs has a panel of experts offering their opinion on which countries should do well each year. Their predictions for 2016 were off. I did not follow them before that, and have not remembered to see what they say for 2017.

 

[Lakewood90712]

but at least I'm not banned here.

Yet

 

[Gumby]

Count no man happy till he dies.

-- Sophocles (Oedipus Rex)

 

[DrRoy]

I guess if I had to pick another question it would be what country's index fund do you think would make a good investment for the coming years, not including the U.S. I believe a little market timing could work and I want to weight my portfolio a little bit towards countries that Trump will have the least effect on, but I want more reason than that before I buy a foreign index fund.

You won't get much support for that here - market timing or cherry picking country funds. I would suggest a total world market ETF like VT.

 

[panacea]

You won't get much support for that here - market timing or cherry picking country funds. I would suggest a total world market ETF like VT.

+1

I generally avoid specific sectors and countries. Getting the right timing is virtually impossible. I try to buy broad index funds and ETFs and in some cases diversified active funds.

 

[Winemaker]

If you don't think things are going to get better in the long run, then there is no sense in investing anywhere. Go put your money under a rock.
Unless you have a crystal ball that comes with a warranty, country/sector/timing is guaranteed losing bet. Buy the broad market and prosper.

 

[travelover]

I used to be an expert, now I'm an index investor. Pays better, especially on an hourly basis.

 

[nun]

Unicorns are rare and very difficult to capture, but horses are common, friendly and will pull your plough.

Just go with your favorite couch potato portfolio.

 

[REWahoo]

I guess if I had to pick another question it would be what country's index fund do you think would make a good investment for the coming years, not including the U.S. I believe a little market timing could work and I want to weight my portfolio a little bit towards countries that Trump will have the least effect on, but I want more reason than that before I buy a foreign index fund.

Following that investing strategy will likely result in a request to change your name from Boho to Boohoo...

 

[Big_Hitter]

This one is too, but at least I'm not banned here.

just stay away from politics, advertising and trolling and you'll be fine

 

[Boho]

Are there any, for lack of a better word, significant countries that aren't represented by your index fund? Or any that avoid bonds? Or are you all really that diversified?


If I made 60% of my portfolio a very world-balanced, low cost index fund, and then bought index funds for a couple for specific countries and a treasury bond fund, is that bad? I feel like I shouldn't ignore Brexit and Trump.

 

[Golden sunsets]

Single country investing is like investing in individual stocks- which is "uncompensated risk". Market timing is another fool's errand. You might benefit from some general reading. Start with Bernstein's Four Pillars of Investing.


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum

 

[Big_Hitter]

I'm not sure I'm that diversified...but I do have assets all over the place - domestic equities, both individual stocks and funds, international equities both individual stocks and funds, cash, municipal bond portfolio including a few bond funds, life insurance cash value, rental property, hard metals, dirt, defined benefit pension and a few subarus

 

[Ronstar]

Please refrain from partisan political references.

 

[MichaelB]

If I made 60% of my portfolio a very world-balanced, low cost index fund, and then bought index funds for a couple for specific countries and a treasury bond fund, is that bad? I feel like I shouldn't ignore Brexit and Trump.

This forum is not the place to discuss "Brexit and Trump". We discourage political discussions, as you can see in our community rules here http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/misc.php?do=sknetwork&page=rules

 

[ER Eddie]

what country's index fund do you think would make a good investment for the coming years, not including the U.S.

Put it all on Albania.

 

[Whisper66]

.... If I made 60% of my portfolio a very world-balanced, low cost index fund, and then bought index funds for a couple for specific countries and a treasury bond fund, is that bad? I feel like I shouldn't ignore Brexit and Trump.

I understand your itch to respond to events with your investment choices. Many have tried to do that, including me. What most of us find is that we are unable to make good enough choices, often enough to beat a simple, low cost, diversified portfolio.

But I understand the itch to try. If you want to play a bit, just keep the amount to whatever you don't mind losing. Keep the rest of your investments in something simple such as mentioned in the Boggleheads wiki on Lazy Portfolios.

My target portofolio is a simple mix I'm comfortable with based on Scott Burn's Couch Potato Cookbook and Paul Merriman's Vangaurd Recommendations. In my mix, I've limited my international investments more than these guys suggest. Even that may be a bad choice...but won't know until time passes.

 

[exnavynuke]

I'm fairly well diversified, still in the accumulation phase so my AA is still fairly aggressive.

Cash	2.21%
Bonds	3.38%
Intl Stocks	21.20%
US Stocks	69.23%
Alternatives	3.98%

The primary problem I have with trying to "pick" sectors or countries to selectively invest in is the fact that I can't say which will outperform and which will underperform with any degree of certainty. As such, I stick with a broad investment approach and don't try to pick the winners and losers. I just trust that the overall markets will go up in time.

 

[COcheesehead]

I already got my main question answered in another section. It's pretty much what I figured.


I guess if I had to pick another question it would be what country's index fund do you think would make a good investment for the coming years, not including the U.S. I believe a little market timing could work and I want to weight my portfolio a little bit towards countries that Trump will have the least effect on, but I want more reason than that before I buy a foreign index fund.

I am not advocating this type of investment, but Fidelity published this graph this morning and you may find it interesting.

 

[REWahoo]

Reminds me of this chart...

 

[COcheesehead]

Reminds me of this chart...

I saw a "reactions" to the stages of a market correction awhile back.

It went something like:
Crap!
Oh no!
OMG!
Oh, that wasn't too bad
Oh, there's more?
Uh Oh!
I am sick.
I need to do something.
I am selling some.
I am selling more.
I am selling all!
I am never investing again.
Correction over.

 

[Boho]

I was figuring if I cross check with a bunch of charts and analysts and avoid anything with a "time to sell" rating (it's mostly the "time to buy" predictions that are wrong) plus backcheck to make sure prices aren't especially high, then it's a good investment, especially if it's any kind of index fund. The stats about analysts being no better than the index look at analysts as a single entity. If you look at the analysts who make the best picks, I think they do better than the index. And I read about the reasons the experts rate too many funds as buys rather than sells. They have incentives to do that. They're more talented than they look.