Thanks, Omni!
I appreciate the other heads-up from JDarnell and others who contacted me.
TDub, I suspect you’re going to be fine. Your posted numbers show that you’re earning more than $133K and spending only $77K, which means that you’re saving over 40%. At this rate you may reach FI before you reach your pensions.
I’d suggest taking your careers one obligation at a time. Stay on active duty if you’re feeling challenged & fulfilled, but if the fun stops (especially family issues) then be ready for at least one of you to leave active duty for the Reserve/Guard.
https://the-military-guide.com/dont-gut-20-leave-active-duty-reserves-national-guard/
If you learn about those options now then you won’t be under as much pressure when the unrefusable offer comes your way. As you promote and get to the pointy part of the promotion pyramid, your billet & collocation options will get more complicated. You only need one Reserve/Guard pension to be financially sound for the rest of your lives. One active-duty pension and a Reserve/Guard pension will be financial overkill. Two active-duty pensions... listen to Vanguard when he says that they have way more than enough.
You may decide that you don’t need the Survivor Benefit Plan, either. For spouses, you’ll have plenty of assets and might want to have that 6.5% to spend while you’re both alive. Part of that depends on whether you feel the need to insure your kids as well as your spouse. If a child will be a permanently disabled adult then SBP is essential to fund a Special Needs Trust (which keeps them eligible for other state/community benefits).
SBP becomes a complicated emotional and financial decision, and I recommend spending the money to read CFP Forrest Baumhover’s excellent analysis:
https://www.amazon.com/Military-Transitions-Guide-Survivor-Benefit-ebook/dp/B01EPB5H1Q/ref=sr_1_1
......
TDub, I’d keep maximizing your TSP and IRA contributions. When you reach FI (and enter lower tax brackets) then you’ll have a slew of Roth IRA conversions to occupy your time between your 40s and 59.5.