Coronavirus - Health aspects

[brewer12345]

Nw, I think your numbers are off. Hubei alone reported over 2000 cases last night.

 

[MichaelB]

The World Health Organization dashboard shows fewer new cases reported on Feb 8. New cases in the epicenter in Wuhan are probably correctly reported, but elsewhere, especially other parts of emerging Asia and Africa, may not be. The dashboard is here, below is a chart showing daily new cases.

There’s a good podcast interview with science writer David Quammen on Fresh Air https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...he-last-outbreak-to-move-from-animal-to-human He provides good background on viruses, how they move from animals to humans. He also provides some understanding of how this virus compares with others, such as SARS.

 

[ckelly78z]

I think the best method of avoiding exposure would to avoid most public places/large crowds, and wear a mask, and gloves that are disposable after each use. We gave up on plans of air travel this Spring to South Florida, to avoid the airport, and the captive crowd on the airplane.

With my reduced immune system, I would be the unlucky one to have a common cold going through TSA, and get quarentined for 14 days.

 

[tmm99]

With my reduced immune system, I would be the unlucky one to have a common cold going through TSA, and get quarentined for 14 days.

So true, it's not just about the possibility of catching the virus, but also of becoming a suspect and getting jailed (so to speak) for an extended period of time.

 

[Brat]

In This Week in Virology today, the recommendation was to WASH YOUR HANDS with soap and WATER. They are not impressed with the effectiveness of hand sanitizers, particularly Purell for making unproven claims.

Keep your hands away from your face.

Virologists work with those bugs daily, I take their advice seriously.

 

[Nemo2]

There’s a good podcast interview with science writer David Quammen on Fresh Air https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...he-last-outbreak-to-move-from-animal-to-human He provides good background on viruses, how they move from animals to humans.

Prior to listening to the presentation, DW & I were talking about the apparent 'Bat Factor' and how, in 1962, three of us drove from N.E. Western Australia, across the Territory, to Queensland, thence Victoria.

Sleeping out in the open en route on a large tarp, no tent, one night (not quite under but very close to a large tree), we watched literally hundreds of large Fruit Bats circling around.

Then, on the podcast, David Quammen mentions the work of Dr. Hume Field on the outbreak of a horse killing virus in Australia eventually traced to a horse sheltering under a tree populated by these very same Fruit Bats.

"Bartender......can we get a refill here please?"

 

[MichaelB]

"Bartender......can we get a refill here please?"

That was my first thought as well. Specifically the horseshoe bat, which carried SARS and was found to carry a virus similar to 2019nCoV back in 2017.

According to Quammen, the virus probably isn’t transmitted directly from bat to human, but to another animal which acts as carrier. Until that link is found, it’s impossIble to stop the spread.

 

[explanade]

That was my first thought as well. Specifically the horseshoe bat, which carried SARS and was found to carry a virus similar to 2019nCoV back in 2017.

According to Quammen, the virus probably isn’t transmitted directly from bat to human, but to another animal which acts as carrier. Until that link is found, it’s impossIble to stop the spread.

This seafood market had various wild animals. Some Chinese believe consuming these wild animals give them virility.

They not only eat bats but they will eat the "amplifying" animal, that is some larger animal which gets infected by bats.

One suspect amplifying animals in this case are civets.

There was also an article in the BBC that viral outbreaks and epidemics are going to become more common as more people concentrate into cities.

For instance, since SARS, almost 20 years ago, a lot higher percentage of the global population live in cities.

When humans become concentrated in cities, it attracts animals, scavenging, since there's a lot of food and waste near cities.

Inequality and global warming are other cited factors for the probability of greater viral epidemics in the future. Underclass may not have access to "clean" animal meat.

But also as the human population in cities grow, so do population of rats for instance.

 

[Brat]

Have you noticed that none of the virus epidemics have originated in India? The social space in India is very small. I believe that is because they are essentially vegetarians.

 

[NW-Bound]

This seafood market had various wild animals. Some Chinese believe consuming these wild animals give them virility.

They not only eat bats but they will eat the "amplifying" animal, that is some larger animal which gets infected by bats.

One suspect amplifying animals in this case are civets...

If it does not kill you, it makes you stronger.

 

[Nemo2]

If it does not kill you, it makes you stronger.

How is Friedrich these days?

 

[NW-Bound]

^^^ I guess you do not want to get "stronger".

 

[razztazz]

Have you noticed that none of the virus epidemics have originated in India? The social space in India is very small. I believe that is because they are essentially vegetarians.

Not so. South India is largely vegetarian altho they do not suffer the ill effects of vegetarianism and imbalanced diets because of poor sanitation standards. ie they eat lots of insects and bug excrement to get their protein. Unintended consequences.

Northern India eats meat and meat by products. (Think "Ghee") They are not vegetarian. Why aren't they a hot bed of diseases especially heart disease? As to why infectious diseases do not seem to originate from India is obviously a much more complicated situation than being vegetarian or believing these vegetarians are not consuming animal bodies. Because they are.

 

[Nemo2]

^^^ I guess you do not want to get "stronger".

"There are no beautiful surfaces without a terrible depth."

 

[brewer12345]

Saw a headline on Caixin that suggested the test being used to detect cases may be flawed and leading to a lot of false negatives. That would be pretty bad, especially if places outside China are using the test to make decisions about who to let out of quarantine.

ETA:

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-0...missing-many-coronavirus-cases-101513176.html

Key Diagnostic Test Might Be Missing Many Coronavirus Cases

China’s ability to control a rapidly spreading coronavirus epidemic is under further strain amid fears that a key test used to confirm new cases is failing to catch large numbers of people with the disease.

Problems with so-called nucleic acid tests (NATs) widely used to identify the presence of the previously unknown pneumonia-causing virus make it likely that many infections are going uncounted even as the number of confirmed cases continues to spiral.

Authorities are still struggling to ascertain the true extent of the epidemic, which had infected (link in Chinese) 34,598 people and killed 723 in China as of Friday, according to the National Health Commission (NHC). In Hubei, the province at the epicenter of the outbreak, reports of overwhelmed hospitals, scarce medical supplies, and overly stringent diagnostic criteria have complicated efforts to determine the scope of the disease.

 

[Mdlerth]

Broken record

Inequality and global warming are other cited factors for the probability of [-]greater viral epidemics in the future[/-] everything bad ever.

FIFY

 

[2177V]

Authorities are still struggling to ascertain the true extent of the epidemic, which had infected (link in Chinese) 34,598 people and killed 723 in China as of Friday, according to the National Health Commission (NHC). In Hubei, the province at the epicenter of the outbreak, reports of overwhelmed hospitals, scarce medical supplies, and overly stringent diagnostic criteria have complicated efforts to determine the scope of the disease.

I read about the hospitals being overwhelmed with not enough protective equipment for the doctors, nurses and caretakers. I really hope our local authorities and hospitals in the US will think about stockpiling additional disposible masks, gloves, protective clothing for both our doctors, nurses, caretakers and for the patients being treated. Granted additional hospital rooms may be cost prohibited but at least our local hospitals should have some emergency supplies on standby for this type of outbreak.

I read that some sick chinese people waited outside the hospitals because there were not enough room inside. They waited for evaluation and treatment on the sidewalks and even inside their cars. The problem is that they do not know if they got the coronavirus or the common flu. Some sick chinese people refused to go inside the hospital for fear of getting the disease. I do not blame them.

If there is an outbreak in my town or city, I decided to convert my van into a hospital bed with my camping potty toilet and wait outside for an evaluation and treatment. Only if my situation is severe, would I enter a hospital but I will be fully protected. This means buying extra N95 facemasks, disposible gloves, tyrek protective coveralls as emergency supplies for myself and my family in the event the local hospital and authorities run out of supplies. Fairly inexpensive insurance since a typical N95 mask is $2, disposal gloves are $1, face shield is $10 and a tyrek protective coveralls are $10. In other words, the protective equipment that the chinese doctors were wearing to evaluate the patients, I intend to get the same protective equipment for myself and for my family.

 

[Masquernom]

I read an article about Africa and the virus. They are still flying 30 flights a week from Ethiopia to China and back. Something like a million Chinese working in Africa and lots of travel back and forth still. Only a couple of African countries have the capability to test for the new virus so far.

Doesn't sound like a good situation there.

 

[brewer12345]

This means buying extra N95 facemasks, disposible gloves, tyrek protective coveralls as emergency supplies for myself and my family in the event the local hospital and authorities run out of supplies. Fairly inexpensive insurance since a typical N95 mask is $2, disposal gloves are $1, face shield is $10 and a tyrek protective coveralls are $10. In other words, the protective equipment that the chinese doctors were wearing to evaluate the patients, I intend to get the same protective equipment for myself and for my family.

You are a little late. N95 masks are basically sold out globally. If you get lucky you may find some at a hardware store or similar, but if you buy online they are basically being scalped. Tyvek suits seem to be headed in that direction as well. Gloves still seem to be available, but I think I read that they are mostly made in China so I suspect we will not see them resupplied once stocks here are gone.

 

[NW-Bound]

...
Authorities are still struggling to ascertain the true extent of the epidemic, which had infected (link in Chinese) 34,598 people and killed 723 in China as of Friday, according to the National Health Commission (NHC). In Hubei, the province at the epicenter of the outbreak, reports of overwhelmed hospitals, scarce medical supplies, and overly stringent diagnostic criteria have complicated efforts to determine the scope of the disease.

The total number of confirmed cases is now 40,514 worldwide, with 910 total deaths as of late Sunday 2/9 here in the US.

... I read that some sick chinese people waited outside the hospitals because there were not enough room inside...

I wonder if the thing that sick people need the most is oxygen for breathing. Yet, oxygen concentrators would be among the equipment most likely to be unavailable.

 

[Kwirk]

The number of new cases seems to be increasing linearly now rather than exponentially. Of course, I can't vouch for the accuracy of the data. Maybe the rate of diagnosis is dependent on the availability of diagnostic tests and this would tend to be linear when maxed out.

I'm particularly puzzled by the low death rate everywhere except where the disease emerged. Too early? Unreliable data?

 

[Sunset]

.....

If there is an outbreak in my town or city, I decided to convert my van into a hospital bed with my camping potty toilet and wait outside for an evaluation and treatment. Only if my situation is severe, would I enter a hospital but I will be fully protected. This means buying extra N95 facemasks, disposible gloves, tyrek protective coveralls as emergency supplies for myself and my family in the event the local hospital and authorities run out of supplies. Fairly inexpensive insurance since a typical N95 mask is $2, disposal gloves are $1, face shield is $10 and a tyrek protective coveralls are $10. In other words, the protective equipment that the chinese doctors were wearing to evaluate the patients, I intend to get the same protective equipment for myself and for my family.

Try Harborfreight for gloves and masks, the gloves I use all the time for oil changes are $8 (less on sale) for 100. So 8 cents each.

https://www.harborfreight.com/search?q=nitrile gloves

 

[robnplunder]

DW and I stopped going to Chinese restaurants for now. Bay Area has three known cases and we are not taking any chances.

 

[BeachOrCity]

All the information we get is carefully managed, ...to try to prevent the spread but also to avoid panic.

So in the last 24 hours they released info saying the “cure” rate has risen to 8%.

Good news!!!

Except if you look beyond the headline you realize that 2% die. 8% are cured.

SO WHAT HAPPENS TO 90% OF PEOPLE WHO GET THIS?!!!!

I have never worried about any epidemic in my life like I am worried about this. Why? Not because it kills 2% of people who get it, and does something pretty nasty to 90% (which they don’t seem to want to talk about).

In am worried because it spreads like the common cold so there is little we can do to stop this.

 

[bobandsherry]

It looks like all the lockdown in Wuhan plus the raised awareness of the virus in China is paying off. The rate of infection is no longer accelerating.

2/9/2020 - 37.2K cases in mainland China
2/8/2020 - 36.8K

The increase is now 400/day. Compare this to the number 1 week ago.

2/2/2020 - 17.2K
2/1/2010 - 14.3K

The rate was 2.9K/day 1 week ago, and has dropped to 400.

Have to wonder if the drop in daily cases actually a drop in infections, or, is it more a case as an upper bound in how many cases can be tested and confirmed on a daily basis.