Zero left, because I don't include equity in my house or other non-financial assets in my FIRECalc portfolio.
Yes, returns are uneven, not linear. But history has shown that each year's return is not entirely independent of the one preceding it. Importantly, FIRECalc is not a Monte Carlo simulator. It takes as many separate planning periods as can be derived from available market data since 1871 and uses them, as they reflect the somewhat interdependent nature of returns year to year. i.e. - if you choose 30 years, there are 119 historical return paths, starting with a person retiring in 1871 and ending with one retiring in 1989. The key assumption is that if your portfolio survives the worst that has occurred in the past, it will survive the future.
FIREcalc shows our portfolio low balance as never going below 50% of what it was on the day we retired and always ending with more than we started. As Midpack notes, people will adjust rather than blindly continuing to spend. In our case, over 1/3 of spending is entirely discretionary (vacation, restaurants, booze) which we easily could cut back or eliminate if necessary. And all of our fixed spending is covered by social security and pensions.
Like USGrant1962, I also don't include the value of our house in our portfolio. It is approximately 20% of our net worth, and the property tax, insurance, utilities and maintenance/repairs on it constitute about 35% of our base spending. So, if times get rough, we could sell the house, rent a decent apartment just from the savings on the current expenses and add a giant wad of cash to our portfolio. As it is, I see the value of the house as our eventual buy-in to a CCRC.
And, finally, we have no heirs. So, in short, I don't worry about the ultimate success of our plan, and I especially don't worry about the minimum balance projected by FIRECalc.
No retirement spending calculator guarantees anything, and 60 years is an atypically long period. But if your AA matches FIRECALC and the next 60 years doesn’t fall outside any 60 year period since 1871 in any regard (asset class returns, sequence of returns, inflation, etc.), you won’t run out of money. It’s up to you to decide whether history will repeat...So I plugged my numbers into FireCalc:
Spending: $25,000
Portfolio: $750,000
Years: 60
I got 100%! But I'm trying to read this correctly. Does this mean if I have $750k in my portfolio and I continue to spend $25k inflation adjusted or less each year, then I will be 100% financially independent for the next 60 years?
So I plugged my numbers into FireCalc:
Spending: $25,000
Portfolio: $750,000
Years: 60
I got 100%! But I'm trying to read this correctly. Does this mean if I have $750k in my portfolio and I continue to spend $25k or less each year, then I will be 100% financially independent for the next 60 years?