Coronavirus - Travel impacts II

[NW-Bound]

At the current count as of Sat 2020/3/27, Wuhan has 67,707 cases with 2,986 deaths. That's a fatality rate of 4.4%.

Italy's current count is 5,883 cases, with 233 deaths. That's a fatality rate of 4.0%.

Note that even if you stop all contagion so there are no new cases, some of the people who are currently sick will get weaker and eventually succumb, driving the number higher. The WHO report says people in Wuhan who died lingered on for 2 to 8 weeks before death.

Just looking at the above numbers, one can see why Italy is in a real crisis now.

One interesting point to note: About 2/3 of the deaths in Italy are men. It's the same thing as observed in Wuhan.

 

[ziggy29]

At the current count as of Sat 2020/3/27, Wuhan has 67,707 cases with 2,986 deaths. That's a fatality rate of 4.4%.

Italy's current count is 5,883 cases, with 233 deaths. That's a fatality rate of 4.0%.

Note that even if you stop all contagion so there are no new cases, some of the people who are currently sick will get weaker and eventually succumb, driving the number higher. The WHO report says people in Wuhan who died lingered on for 2 to 8 weeks before death.

Just looking at the above number, one can see why Italy is in a real crisis now.

I think the places which have only had positive tests for people already exhibiting serious symptoms are going to be an upper bound on the ultimate mortality rate. South Korea, which is very aggressively testing even folks with minor symptoms or even no symptoms, is showing a rate of about 0.6%, and I think that is a reasonable lower bound. I'd expect the final result to be somewhere in between, and honestly, I'd say closer to South Korea's based on how statistics are applied. I am no expert but it would not surprise me if 1-1.5% winds up being in the ballpark. If we were to have an "office pool", morbid as it is, I'd take 1.2%.

I don't know about Italy's testing methodology, but if they are not aggressively testing people who are asymptomatic or have only mild cold or flu-like symptoms, then their denominator is going to be way too low. And, of course, it matters a lot whether you are 30 and healthy or 85 with chronic respiratory problems. For the former the mortality rate may turn out to be less than 0.1%, and for the latter, perhaps more than 10%.

Personally, my fear is not catching it but spreading it to all the old folks we know. My own personal risk is apparently quite low.

 

[sengsational]

Italy Timeline - First cluster to widespread lockdown

According to Wikipedia, the first cluster of cases were detected on February 21. So now, about two weeks later, they're locking down 12 provinces in northern Italy.

The fact that it happened pretty fast might give some travelers pause.

Say you plan to go somewhere that's got a handful of reported cases. You might conclude that your will get to your destinations and then come home before it gets "really bad". But if Italy is any indication, one may not have as much time as indicated by some other countries, where the initial cases haven't exploded into large proportions as quickly.

 

[explanade]

^^^ The above article is behind a paywall.

I found out elsewhere that 21 passengers on the Grand Princess ship have tested positive. It looks like the entire ship of 3500 passengers and crew will be quarantined onboard. I guess it's not easy to find room and board for them on land.

It's a replay of the Diamond Princess in Yokohama. Aye, aye, aye....

I may be mistaken but I thought it turned out the passengers didn't really self-quarantine to their cabins like they were told to.

I saw one picture of people leaning over their balcony to the balcony next door and talking to their neighboring cabin passengers.

Also the service personnel was delivering food to each cabin for most of the time the ship was moored off the dock and some of them were found to be infected.


So hoping they find better way to isolate on this cruise ship.

There were theories that the virus was being transported through the HVAC system with the air recirculated among all the cabins but I don't think that has been established.

 

[NW-Bound]

I saw one picture of people leaning over their balcony to the balcony next door and talking to their neighboring cabin passengers...

Initially, they asked only 62 passengers who continued on from the earlier SF-Mexico trip (Feb 11-21) to this current trip to self-quarantine. The rest were allowed to move about. Perhaps that was when the photos that you saw were taken.

Now, all passengers have been ordered to stay inside. They are now sharing photos of themselves spending time inside playing some card games or with their tablets. One woman was even making a quilt.

Currently the Carnival ship Panorama being docked at Long Beach was told to stop debarkation to await the test result for a sick passenger. You can imagine the mess this causes on the day of debarkation because passengers and their luggage have already been separated. Now, if the order is to quarantine the ship, the luggage has be brought back to the passengers. And passengers waiting to board for the next trip have to be turned away.

And there's talk of another Princess ship that may have infected people on board. Aye, aye, aye...

 

[audreyh1]

I think Explanade is talking about the Diamond Princess. I think the passengers really did self-quarantine by staying in their cabins. And yes, if a few leaned over the balcony they still may not have been in very close contact.

The problem was that the crew was not isolated and living in close quarters and they were still doing food prep and serving passengers. And if it’s anything like this new Grand Princess situation, a large number of infections spreading through the crew would have caused infections in otherwise isolated passengers.

On the Grand Princess, 19 of the 21 positives are crew members!

 

[Gearhead Jim]

There are so many factors on that. What is the temperature of the air above the surface? What is the humidity. Is there airflow? Does any UV light touch the surface?

Those are just the ones I can identify quickly off the top of my head but I guess there are several other factors.

The range of possibilities is very large, but for starters you don't need to test all of them. Pick a dozen of the situations that virus experts say would likely produce the longest virus survival time, and a dozen more common situations with a shorter expected time. Do the tests and publish the results with the caveat that not all possibilities have been explored. Since disinfection resources are limited, you need to start with what will work for most people most of the time. Fine tune it when you have more time and resources.

Right now, the "4 hours to 9 days" range given on TV means "we don't have a frickin' clue". After three months of the virus, that's pathetic.

 

[tmm99]

I think Explanade is talking about the Diamond Princess. I think the passengers really did self-quarantine by staying in their cabins. And yes, if a few leaned over the balcony they still may not have been in very close contact.

Still, not a very smart thing to do IMO without some kind of cover over your eyes, nose and mouth...

 

[Golden sunsets]

Acela has just cancelled nonstop train service between NYC and DC until the end of May. They also warn that other changes to train service will be forthcoming as the situation evolves.

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

Acela has just cancelled nonstop train service between NYC and DC until the end of May. They also warn that other changes to train service will be forthcoming as the situation evolves.

Not aimed at you, Golden sunsets, but for those not familiar with the Eastern Seaboard: the Acela is specifically the high-speed train that runs from Boston to Washington, DC. The route that it runs along is called the Northeast Corridor, and the trains are still running on the NE Corridor, it's just the more expensive, all business-class Acela trains have been stopped, probably due to so many companies canceling business travel.

Just wanted to clarify that they're not shutting down train travel, just kind of cancelling the faster, mostly business-class service trains.
[TheMoreYouKnow.gif]

 

[Nemo2]

Received by e-mail...(I have no idea who these people are):

 

[sengsational]

Received by e-mail...(I have no idea who these people are):]

 

[garyt]

My almost 90 year old Dad, who is quite frail and under hospice care, is very vulnerable to this. However, he is ready to go - it’s this or something else sooner rather than later. What horrifies me is the nightmare that would result if his small care place were hit by the virus - the elderly residents, staff, families. If would be a huge mess.

My MIL is in a memory care facility and they were shut down for a couple weeks due to a bug. It had to be tough for many of the residents as they probably couldn't understand why they were no longer getting visitors.

 

[garyt]

Just saw Dr, Fauci on one of the Sunday news shows and he flat out stated "Do not get on a cruise ship"

 

[MrsHaloFIRE]

Don't get me wrong. I am not gleeful that this has happened to them and I do sympathize with their plight.

BUT---they made the call to board the ship with full knowledge of what's happening in the world and the risks they potentially run if something bad were to happen. Call it ill luck. Call it bad timing. Call it whatever. They made the call and unfortunately things didn't work out for them.

IMO, at some point, such decisions have to be about more than money. DW and I just cancelled our trip to Paris and London in June. Many of our bookings and flights were not refundable, and right now we're out USD $5,000. But we feel that that's the small price to pay in exchange for safety, peace of mind, and not running the risk of being infected and, worst still, bringing the virus back to our family and community and imperiling them unwittingly (as have happened with many travelers to N. Italy who subsequently returned to their communities and brought the infection with them).

Just my humble opinion and I certainly don't mean to offend.

Lucky Dude

I fully agree with you. They did their own calculus (or should have) and they decided the risk was worth the reward. THey traded the sunk cost of the trip in exchange for the potentially reward of enjoying the trip, with the possible but not definitive by any means risk they could 1) become potentially very ill 2) not be allowed to debark at some point 3) kept longer than they agreed to be kept on board. I don not wish anyone harm or bad health. But if you go on a cruise ship in the last few weeks or the next few weeks, I think it would be prudent to plan for remaining onboard an additional few weeks. (i.e. Bring your medications with you etc)

Its not to this scale but Im skewing facts for illustration. I saw a comment on reddit that said "I know that country is hot with <ebola> but I spent <1k> on airline tickets and they wont refund me and its the airline's fault if I get <ebola> because they wont refund me so now I HAVE TO GO." NO bro, you don't have to go. You are CHOOSING to go and taking the risk vice eating the 1k in favor of health.

 

[Sunset]

I fully agree with you. They did their own calculus (or should have) and they decided the risk was worth the reward. THey traded the sunk cost of the trip in exchange for the potentially reward of enjoying the trip, with the possible but not definitive by any means risk they could 1) become potentially very ill 2) not be allowed to debark at some point 3) kept longer than they agreed to be kept on board. I don not wish anyone harm or bad health. But if you go on a cruise ship in the last few weeks or the next few weeks, I think it would be prudent to plan for remaining onboard an additional few weeks. (i.e. Bring your medications with you etc)

Its not to this scale but Im skewing facts for illustration. I saw a comment on reddit that said "I know that country is hot with <ebola> but I spent <1k> on airline tickets and they wont refund me and its the airline's fault if I get <ebola> because they wont refund me so now I HAVE TO GO." NO bro, you don't have to go. You are CHOOSING to go and taking the risk vice eating the 1k in favor of health.

Life is a risk, and every time someone drives to the grocery store (car crash maybe) or flies somewhere (plane crash, hijack) or takes a cruise (ship sinks, norovirus) or goes to a restaurant (food poisoning).

We do these things, without much thought as we are used to the risk involved.
Now there is a new risk, it's hard to evaluate, and the experts sure seem lacking on simple things like how long the virus lives on tabletops, etc..

We are facing the cruise choice, and it's the associated costs (hotels, flight) that will actually cost us, assuming we could use the cruise future credit next year...

 

[Chuckanut]

According to an NPR interview, the person who brought CV19 to Utah was a passenger on the previous trip made by the cruise ship that is currently stranded off the coast of CA with CV19 exposures. So..... this does not sound good.

And, now we hear Italy is quarantining 1/4 of its population.

Meanwhile my friend has just returned from Vietnam having had a wonderful time. He also became a multi-millionaire since $100 equals about 2.3 million dong.

 

[audreyh1]

Just saw Dr, Fauci on one of the Sunday news shows and he flat out stated "Do not get on a cruise ship"

You need to give the entire quote as Dr. Fauci had qualified his statement. He was specifically referring to elderly people with underlying conditions.

“If you are an elderly person with an underlying condition, if you get infected, the risk of getting into trouble is considerable. So it's our responsibility to protect the vulnerable,” he said.

“When I say protect, I mean right now. Not wait until things get worse. Say no large crowds, no long trips. And above all, don't get on a cruise ship.”

It’s probably the crew that first gets infected from an infected passenger on a previous cruise, spreads among the crew a bit, then the passengers are routinely exposed.

The crew is the weak link.

That’s how if happened on Grand Princess. Two waiters that served that first ill individual caught it.

Although why the on board medical staff did not suspect COVID-19 when that first passenger was in sick bay due to respiratory distress, I can’t imagine. I guess because he hadn’t traveled to China?

 

[Sunset]

...

And, now we hear Italy is quarantining 1/4 of its population.

Meanwhile my friend has just returned from Vietnam having had a wonderful time. He also became a multi-millionaire since $100 equals about 2.3 million dong.

Soon it will get harder to travel to other countries, so your friend was smart/lucky to do it early.

"Thailand will now require travelers from South Korea, China, Iran and Italy to self-quarantine for 14 days and report their health daily to authorities, Thanarak Plipat, Thailand's Deputy Director General of the Department of Disease Control, said at a press briefing. "

https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-08-20-intl-hnk/index.html

It would really suck to go to a country for holiday and end up stuck in the hotel for 2 weeks.

 

[TromboneAl]

Just saw Dr, Fauci on one of the Sunday news shows and he flat out stated "Do not get on a cruise ship"

Right.

“This will be a recommendation," Fauci said. "If you're a person with an underlying condition and you are particularly an elderly person with an underlying condition, you need to think twice about getting on a plane, on a long trip. And not only think twice, just don't get on a cruise ship.”

 

[ivinsfan]

We arrived in Milano about 11 hours ago
We just had an excellent dinner at Osteria del Corso.
We are happy.

Things are heating up in Italy. Is this impacting your plans? Are you concerned about being able to return to the US?

 

[Sunset]

We arrived in Milano about 11 hours ago
We just had an excellent dinner at Osteria del Corso.
We are happy.

Yes, we are thinking about you, being there.
Are you stuck there now, or did you escape the quarantine on the last train out of town ?

 

[brewer12345]

Right.

“This will be a recommendation," Fauci said. "If you're a person with an underlying condition and you are particularly an elderly person with an underlying condition, you need to think twice about getting on a plane, on a long trip. And not only think twice, just don't get on a cruise ship.”

Yee-haw! Maybe I should cancel those good til cancelled limit orders to cover my cruise line shorts at $5 a share...

 

[Teacher Terry]

I can understand that for some people to lose 5k from not going on a trip is huge. Most of our friends have never been to Europe. We have been 4x’s in 17 years. One reason we decided to make our next trip a month is because we don’t know if we will ever go as again. So happy that the only thing paid for is airfare.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Acela has just cancelled nonstop train service between NYC and DC until the end of May. They also warn that other changes to train service will be forthcoming as the situation evolves.

This is a specialized train (non-stop), not all of Acela. It was fairly recently re-introduced in July 2019 (Amtrak also tried it years back in 2007). Not surprising that it failed (regardless of COVID19) the first time around and this time. The non-stop cut 15 minutes off of the time (from 2 hours, 50 minutes to 2 hours, 35 minutes).

Having said that, I would not be surprised to see scaling back of all kinds of public transport. While these industries have significant fixed cost (equipment), they also can have significant marginal cost in terms of labor and other items which can be reduced in times of less demand.