Monday 3-9-2020 will be interesting...

MichaelB said:
There was a Saudi led price war 2014-2016. This looks like that.
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That’s what I’m talking about. Some weak players were squashed. Brought oil prices down from much higher. Surely some of the survivors, including the US oil industry learned something from that.
 
What happens with eod fund purchases when the market is halted?

If the trigger closes the market for the day, do you get that price?
 
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Well, the question for me is, should I unload all my equities, since I am planning on retiring in June? My AA is sitting at roughly 50/40/10 right now.

I am still in a gain position on our stock funds, since we have been in the market since 1990 and really haven’t sold anything other then rebalancing during all the other downturns.

I guess we could use our bond funds for the first couple of years while we wait for stocks to recover.

I could keep working but I am 60 now and thought I had it all covered. Probably do - just nervous
 
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tominboise said:
Well, the question for me is, should I unload all my equities, since I am planning on retiring in June? My AA is sitting at roughly 50/40/10 right now.

I am still in a gain position on our stock funds, since we have been in the market since 1990 and really haven’t sold anything other then rebalancing during all the other downturns.

I guess we could use our bond funds for the first couple of years while we wait for stocks to recover.

I could keep working but I am 60 now and thought I had it all covered. Probably do - just nervous
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Don't panic...... remember your bonds and cash are there for this reason, to balance out the effect of stock drops.
 
tominboise said:
Well, the question for me is, should I unload all my equities, since I am planning on retiring in June? My AA is sitting at roughly 50/40/10 right now.
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So how good are you at timing the market?

I can't tell you what to do. I am sitting tight. My AA [-]is[/-] was close to yours 60/35/5. Yes, it hurts. But, selling into a panic does not seem like a good idea to me. Maybe I will do another small Roth conversion. Same number of shares, but less $$'s so less taxes to pay.
 
My condolences to those that are having to w*rk today. It's bad enough that it's Monday, but the all the fabulous news that's going on...oye, oye, oye!
 
Selling now from panic just locks in current losses. If you don't need the money, let it ride and wait for recovery. How long that takes is not known, but it will recover.
Be confident in your AA, don't let the media fed panic affect your decisions.
If you have some tax loss harvesting, that could be a reason to sell now.
 
+1 on don’t sell. I’m thinking of buying today to get my allocation closer to my target.
 
It seems odd for Saudi's to ramp up production while world consumption is being driven down by Covid-19.
 
I predict record sales and profits at Cocktail lounges and Liquor stores near wall street all this week
 
Oh wow, you all are right; 3/9/2020 is not looking good so far!

Then again, when I look back at my portfolio value on 3/9/2009, today's portfolio value is looking pretty terrific. (3/9/2009 was the day of my all time low in the great recession.)
 
Thanks for support. I survived the dot.com bubble and the housing bubble, so will get through this too. Just nerve racking wondering how low it will go.
 
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tulak said:
+1 on don’t sell. I’m thinking of buying today to get my allocation closer to my target.
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I have placed orders for stocks I've been interested in at ridiculously low prices (ex. AAPL @ $200). Maybe I'll get lucky. But this is all in my gambling Roth. My main assets (index funds) are sitting pat unless I reach a rebalance band.

Lakewood90712 said:
I predict record sales and profits at Cocktail lounges and Liquor stores near wall street all this week
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Good thing I already own Diageo.
 
DFW_M5 said:
It seems odd for Saudi's to ramp up production while world consumption is being driven down by Covid-19.
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What they are doing is actually due to the drop in demand due to Covid-19. They wanted oil producers to cut production. Russia refused. Now the Saudi’s are punishing Russia.
 
What often happens when we have big disruptive events like the coronavirus and now sudden oil price war, is that big leveraged market players are caught leaning the wrong way. They may have to sell a bunch of other things to cover. This tends to cause big broad market drops. Same with individual investor margin calls on a smaller scale.

So you get these big short-term spikes in volatility. Doesn’t mean things will stop dropping long term, it just means that sometimes the moves are incredibly fast.
 
I've just got back to trading options. Very small amounts, just a few hundred to maybe a couple thousand dollars depending on the trade. A little easier to sit at my computer and gamble than physically going to the casino. While this overall hit to my portfolio is no fun to watch, the volatility makes the option trading fun (again, at very small dollars). Somehow, it's still fun to win a couple hundred bucks even if the overall portfolio is taking a major hit. Oh well, what else is one to do :)
 
GenXguy said:
The Dow dropped to 6,469.95, but that was in March 2009, not 2008.
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SP500 on 3/9/2009's low was near 666, not 6k.
I suspect you misplaced a comma. NBD

Some people are currently buying plunging oil/energy opportunities.
Oil indexes and etf's rarely turn around expediently IME.

Good Luck & Best wishes....
 
Looks like they let all the flubber out of that dead cat!!

The market had been sitting on the edge of the ditch, and maybe the oil war was enough to tumble it over the edge? We were looking at houses yesterday, and the realtor was pushing for what it would take to get us to buy. I told him that the market looked a bit like a seller's market, and that we were really just shopping for floor plans and neighborhoods. That I was waiting for the market to crash and the zombie apocalypse. Those two things would crash this local real estate market, and then I would jump in and buy one or two houses. He laughed, and said 'that ain't going to happen!' This morning, he is probably looking for zombies!

For those that are heavy in the market, you already paid for the ticket, now you just need to ride this roller coaster! It's like when you go to an auction sale and the bidding gets exciting- I tell my brother, 'Sit on your hands!!'.
 
tominboise said:
Well, the question for me is, should I unload all my equities, since I am planning on retiring in June? My AA is sitting at roughly 50/40/10 right now.

I am still in a gain position on our stock funds, since we have been in the market since 1990 and really haven’t sold anything other then rebalancing during all the other downturns.

I guess we could use our bond funds for the first couple of years while we wait for stocks to recover.

I could keep working but I am 60 now and thought I had it all covered. Probably do - just nervous
Click to expand...


I wouldn't sell anything, but that's because I'm very confident in my investing strategy.

My AA is close to 100% stocks. This drop doesn't bother me at all because I changed my strategy after the Great Recession. A lot of investors do not like "dividend investing", but I switched to this strategy because I couldn't have peace of mind investing for capital gains.

What would bother me is if my dividend income tanks by a huge amount (like over 50%). I will be getting Q1 dividends soon. I do expect a dividend cut for the next few years. If this is like the great recession then I expect I'll see a 30% cut and it will take 3-4 years before I start to see growth again.

The gyrations in the stock price are just buying opportunities.

If your feeling uncomfortable today I hope you can learn from it and adjust your strategy/portfolio once the market recovers. I wouldn't sell anything at a loss if it can be helped. Good luck all.
 
ExFlyBoy5 said:
My condolences to those that are having to w*rk today. It's bad enough that it's Monday, but the all the fabulous news that's going on...oye, oye, oye!
Click to expand...
Well, in the case of our DD, she starts her new job today. Spent almost 5 years with the company she worked for out of college before they decided to split the group and move each portion to one of two states, all about 1,000-1,400 miles away. She opted for the layoff package rather than move, much to the disappointment of her previous employer. They were certain they could convince her to move to either location.

The new job was posted soon after her decision to accept the layoff package. Her timing couldn't have been better. I'm also glad she found another position before companies decide to freeze hiring due to the Corona virus.
 
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