Monday 3-9-2020 will be interesting...

[audreyh1]

SP500 on 3/9/2009's low was near 666, not 6k.
I suspect you misplaced a comma. NBD

Some people are currently buying plunging oil/energy opportunities.
Oil indexes and etf's rarely turn around expediently IME.

Good Luck & Best wishes....

They were talking about the Dow which indeed hit a intraday low of 6,469.95 on 3/9/2009.

 

[ESRwannabe]

It seems odd for Saudi's to ramp up production while world consumption is being driven down by Covid-19.

Well, not if their goal is to drive their competition out of business. They tried to kill of US shale back in 2015. They just might succeed this time with the double whammy of a demand decline due to the coronavirus.

 

[Bigdawg]

My condolences to those that are having to w*rk today. It's bad enough that it's Monday, but the all the fabulous news that's going on...oye, oye, oye!

My condolences to those that are retired already and are spending their retirement constantly thinking about the market ups and downs.

Let's see, came to work to start my 8 hour day. I will gross $550 today plus 401K match plus some vacation and sick hours. So basically $700 or so for 8 hours of (I guess they call it) work. Let's see, 7 emails with about 10 minutes of action items. Called DW. Called the repair shop regarding DD Sentra. Ate breakfast. Checked ER.org. Talked to coworkers for about 20 minutes. Walked over to the golf course and back. About 2 miles. Disinfected desk area. Sat in a meeting for about 15 miutes. Pretty cool subject. EMI testing on a product we are developing. Now back on ER.org. Ate lunch at desk. Just think, I could be at home on the computer obsessing about the market and my AA instead of being here making $. Meeting DW after work for dinner.

In all seriousness good luck to all of the retired folks out there who are worried about what is going on. I hope your plans are solid. Stay the course.

 

[11522914]

SP500 on 3/9/2009's low was near 666, not 6k.
I suspect you misplaced a comma. NBD

Some people are currently buying plunging oil/energy opportunities.
Oil indexes and etf's rarely turn around expediently IME.

Good Luck & Best wishes....

He was quoting the Dow, not SP500

 

[11522914]

Oops. Someone else already responded

He was quoting the Dow, not SP500

 

[NW-Bound]

... I remember an interview by CNBC with Warren Buffet during the financial crisis at the end of 2008. HE was asked what he thought about the DOW at below 7000 at the time. His response? " THis is a great buying opportunity!" Man was right.

A lot of us were waiting for the opportunity to buy equities on a pullback.
Here it is boys and girls.

The Dow dropped to 6,469.95, but that was in March 2009, not 2008.

The Dow previous high was at 14164 on Oct 2007. That's a full year before the above proclamation of cheap, cheap stocks by Buffett, when the market had lost 1/2 of its value.

 

[ER Eddie]

What would bother me is if my dividend income tanks by a huge amount (like over 50%). I will be getting Q1 dividends soon. I do expect a dividend cut for the next few years. If this is like the great recession then I expect I'll see a 30% cut and it will take 3-4 years before I start to see growth again.

I had heard that dividend income was relatively impervious to market downturns, but based on your comment, I guess that's only true if the downturn is mild.

I'm living on dividend income and a small pension, so a 30% drop in dividend income would sting. I could probably weather a few years of it by getting more frugal and drawing on my cash reserve, but after that, I'd have to sell stock.

 

[MrBig1]

100% invested in equities. Don't need the money I have invested for about 20 years. The market will recover. If it does not nobody will do well. JMHO

 

[ESRwannabe]

I had heard that dividend income was relatively impervious to market downturns, but based on your comment, I guess that's only true if the downturn is mild.

I'm living on dividend income and a small pension, so a 30% drop in dividend income would sting. I could probably weather a few years of it by getting more frugal and drawing on my cash reserve, but after that, I'd have to sell stock.

Well, 30% is very pessimistic and assuming that this coronavirus is going to be as big a deal as the great recession. If this turns out to be just a normal recession then you probably won't see much div cuts. Maybe 10% and back to growth in a year.

 

[tominboise]

Maybe I'll finally be able.to buy that Amazon stock I've been wanting.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Oil stocks down huge. Wow. I sold my OXY position on 2/10/20 for 40.69. Lost approximately $15 per share. Today, one month later, it's trading right now at $17.56, 56.8% drop from when I sold it. It would have a dividend yield of 17.9%.

Copy - do you think OXY is going to make it through this crisis? A dividend cut for sure?

Their issue is leverage as a result of the Adadarko deal. It pissed me off at the time they bid up, and it really irrates me now (as I didn't sell all of my OXY). I know OXY has some of their oil already sold through financial markets (see attached pdf for oil hedge), but I am still trying to get my head around how much this really protects them.

ETA: I think it only protects them to the $40 WTI level, i.e. they are now in Brent + $10 range and lose $ for $ with further oil price declines.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

I have placed orders for stocks I've been interested in at ridiculously low prices (ex. AAPL @ $200). Maybe I'll get lucky. But this is all in my gambling Roth. My main assets (index funds) are sitting pat unless I reach a rebalance band.



Good thing I already own Diageo.

GTC orders?

 

[ESRwannabe]

Here is an interesting youtube video on the market from a small investor that works in the oil industry.

Also here is another interesting take on the oil crash from someone that worked as an oil analyst.

 

[Fermion]

My condolences to those that are retired already and are spending their retirement constantly thinking about the market ups and downs.

*spending their retirement thinking about the market ups and downs while they are not exposed to coworkers who are unknowingly already spreading a virus with a 3% mortality rate.

 

[statsman]

*spending their retirement thinking about the market ups and downs while they are not exposed to coworkers who are unknowingly already spreading a virus with a 3% mortality rate.

*or not having to worry about whether their job might be a casualty of a manufactured recession.

 

[atmsmshr]

My condolences to those that are retired already and are spending their retirement constantly thinking about the market ups and downs.

Let's see, came to work to start my 8 hour day. I will gross $550 today plus 401K match plus some vacation and sick hours. So basically $700 or so for 8 hours of (I guess they call it) work. Let's see, 7 emails with about 10 minutes of action items. Called DW. Called the repair shop regarding DD Sentra. Ate breakfast. Checked ER.org. Talked to coworkers for about 20 minutes. Walked over to the golf course and back. About 2 miles. Disinfected desk area. Sat in a meeting for about 15 miutes. Pretty cool subject. EMI testing on a product we are developing. Now back on ER.org. Ate lunch at desk. Just think, I could be at home on the computer obsessing about the market and my AA instead of being here making $. Meeting DW after work for dinner.

In all seriousness good luck to all of the retired folks out there who are worried about what is going on. I hope your plans are solid. Stay the course.

Hope you are kidding about being so lazy. I used to make examples out of loafers when taking on a new department - up to firing for cause (without package).

 

[eytonxav]

Well, not if their goal is to drive their competition out of business. They tried to kill of US shale back in 2015. They just might succeed this time with the double whammy of a demand decline due to the coronavirus.

Usually price is function of supply/demand, but with demand being impacted by Covid-19, and lower prices unlikely to stimulate demand in the near term, it just seems strange, so you may be correct about their motives. While good for consumers, I would not think governments would take kindly those that try to kill their domestic oil industries via dumping at artificially low prices.

 

[ESRwannabe]

Wow, MLPs are doing even worse than the broader energy market.

MLPA is -24%.

https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MLPA

VDE is almost -20%.

https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VDE?s=vde

So much for the MLP "toll road" business model that is not subject to oil price fluctuations...

Overseas oil majors are doing worse than the US except for COP.

TOT = -17.50%
RDS = -17.30%
BP = -19.76%
XOM = -10.00%
CVX = -13.09%
ENI = -21.00%
COP = -23.78%

 

[Midpack]

The talking heads are all attributing today’s pullback to more Covid-19 anxiety, with only a mention to the oil production dispute. Either way we’ll bottom out and recover sooner or later. Not worried, not acting.

 

[MichaelB]

That’s what I’m talking about. Some weak players were squashed. Brought oil prices down from much higher. Surely some of the survivors, including the US oil industry learned something from that.

The ‘14 price war lasted about 2 years. Petroleum companies took a beating, MLP partnerships did even worse. Resolution is unpredictable becasue it’s between Saudia Arabia and Russia. This is falling knife territory.

 

[Scrapr]

Hope you are kidding about being so lazy. I used to make examples out of loafers when taking on a new department - up to firing for cause (without package).

I suspect BigDawg has some institutional or other knowledge such that when TSHTF he is very valuable.

Nikola Tesla visited Henry Ford at his factory, which was having some kind of difficulty. Ford asked Tesla if he could help identify the problem area. Tesla walked up to a wall of boilerplate and made a small X in chalk on one of the plates. Ford was thrilled, and told him to send an invoice.The bill arrived, for $10,000. Ford asked for a breakdown. Tesla sent another invoice, indicating a $1 charge for marking the wall with an X, and $9,999 for knowing where to put it.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Their issue is leverage as a result of the Adadarko deal. It pissed me off at the time they bid up, and it really irrates me now (as I didn't sell all of my OXY). I know OXY has some of their oil already sold through financial markets (see attached pdf for oil hedge), but I am still trying to get my head around how much this really protects them.

ETA: I think it only protects them to the $40 WTI level, i.e. they are now in Brent + $10 range and lose $ for $ with further oil price declines.

For who knows what reason I just tried to catch this very quickly falling knife, bought some @ 12.52.

 

[ESRwannabe]

OUCH...

The MLP etf AMZA is down -42.56%........

https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMZA?s=amza

Can't say I really feel sorry for people on that one. That etf has been distributing more than it earns for the last few years, in order to entice people with a huge "sucker yield". Lots of people have pointed this out on SA only to be blasted by shareholders.

 

[kgtest]

100% equities guy here checking in. YES it was an absolute bloodbath out there today, now down over 20% from my recent high on 2/19/20.

 

[moneymaker]

For those who are accumulating and 100% equities, do you regret at all being 100% equities right now and not having 6,10,15% cash to be able to start piling in at much lower prices?