The way growth curves work is the peak is reached when the second derivative changes sign. Once it changes sign the curve still grows just at a slower rate. If you're making 100K new cases a day, the next day you may make 99K then 98K etc. If you're making 100K cases a day under quarantine and the next day 99k and you lift the quarantine 5 days later you will be making > 101K and the second derivative will have changed signs again, so dequarantining COVID is not going to be risk off risk on proposition but a chop of local flareups. If the staff of Wendy's flares up, Wendy's goes back in quarantine for 2 or 3 weeks. Doesn't sound very V shaped to me. Also pandemics tend to take 2 years to reach herd immunity enough to reduce the R0 <1.
I dunno never saw 10M newly unemployed in 2 weeks before. Goldman predicts a -33% GDP never saw that before. The FED more than doubled it's balance sheet in a few weeks. These are all signs of monstrous instability and that will wreak true and lasting economic destruction. I doubt many biz's are going to survive 6 months of shut down due to debt load. Once we do reopen there will be no "pent up demand", because all the reserves will have been consumed. You're NOT going to Disney World which means Orlando stays in depression. Multiply that scenario by a few million. In the middle of a depression I'm not buying a new Ford truck, BUT given all the funny money inflation will likely happen on consumer staples, so no demand for Fords will cause Ford to be in depression with no jobs, and hungry children will cause bread to go to $50 bux a loaf. Ford's debt got down graded to junk today. Junk is freezing up which means the debt will sell for 10 cents on the dollar and Ford's likelihood of solvency comes into question. This is called stagflation no growth and high unemployment due to lack of demand and onerous debt and super high cost of living due to in this case MMT. The FED doesn't have a clue what they are doing.
I've been day trading the S&P using SPY on up days and SH on down days. I make about $300 a day but I put only a tiny tiny fraction of my money at risk, and I scale into the trades. Since trading is free now and I trade a Roth account, no drag due to trading costs and no taxes on profits. I may go long or short or flat several times a day if the market threatens to reverse. Beats watching that crap on CNBC
I dunno never saw 10M newly unemployed in 2 weeks before. Goldman predicts a -33% GDP never saw that before. The FED more than doubled it's balance sheet in a few weeks. These are all signs of monstrous instability and that will wreak true and lasting economic destruction. I doubt many biz's are going to survive 6 months of shut down due to debt load. Once we do reopen there will be no "pent up demand", because all the reserves will have been consumed. You're NOT going to Disney World which means Orlando stays in depression. Multiply that scenario by a few million. In the middle of a depression I'm not buying a new Ford truck, BUT given all the funny money inflation will likely happen on consumer staples, so no demand for Fords will cause Ford to be in depression with no jobs, and hungry children will cause bread to go to $50 bux a loaf. Ford's debt got down graded to junk today. Junk is freezing up which means the debt will sell for 10 cents on the dollar and Ford's likelihood of solvency comes into question. This is called stagflation no growth and high unemployment due to lack of demand and onerous debt and super high cost of living due to in this case MMT. The FED doesn't have a clue what they are doing.
I've been day trading the S&P using SPY on up days and SH on down days. I make about $300 a day but I put only a tiny tiny fraction of my money at risk, and I scale into the trades. Since trading is free now and I trade a Roth account, no drag due to trading costs and no taxes on profits. I may go long or short or flat several times a day if the market threatens to reverse. Beats watching that crap on CNBC