Wow, it’s getting really scary in Texas - and everywhere else!

[Aerides]

My niece is 18 and if I were her I'd be so so very angry now. (eta: angry at those with no caution, blowing it for the rest of us, wasting the efforts of the shutdown, driving the curve into a vertical line). She's been a trooper and was a HS senior this year, smart, studied, scholarships lined up, a good kid:

She turned 18 early in the shutdown - no party, no friends over
Spring break trip with friends - cancelled
Her prom dress arrived a few weeks later, no prom to go to
Graduation? She'd have walked the stage with honors, now some silly video car parade thing
Final summer with friends? Gone
Awesome part time job she had - gone
First semester of college up in the air for virtual vs. live - even if they do reopen it will be a shadow of a real college experience (no football, no greek stuff, no visitors in dorms, no going off campus)

So I feel for her. The only bright side is she doesn't really know how much she's missed, and all her friends are in the same boat. She doesn't want to "accept the risk and get on with it" - she wants things to be safe. She doesn't want to infect her parents or grandparents either. I hope she's not in the minority.

 

[audreyh1]

This absolutely may be true. And if so, you realize this is basically armageddon, right? As social animals, much of the population will lose their will to live if locked down and not allowed basic human comforts such as eating together.

I think that’s a bit extreme. People can still socialize, but will have to learn to do it from a distance. And to me FaceTime interaction is just the same as being in the same room, but I’m not an extrovert so I can understand that the touchy feely types would be having a hard time with this.

In the Netherlands where my DB and family live they’ve got the infection rate down low enough that a lot of normal life has resumed except for large gatherings.

 

[mpeirce]

I know I'm taking a risk of being called an idiotic Pollyanna, but there is some pretty optimistic activity on the vaccine front. For example:

Researchers said an experimental coronavirus vaccine from Pfizer Inc. and partner BioNTech SE showed promising signs of working in an early-stage study.

Healthy adult volunteers given the vaccine candidate had higher levels of antibodies four weeks after being vaccinated and seven days after getting a second dose, compared with the antibody levels in recovered Covid-19 patients who didn’t get the shots, the researchers reported Wednesday.

The vaccine candidate also appeared to be well-tolerated, with no serious side effects observed, the researchers said.

...

Pfizer Chief Executive Albert Bourla has said the company could have a vaccine ready by the fall if shown to work safely.

 

[brewer12345]

I know I'm taking a risk of being called an idiotic Pollyanna, but there is some pretty optimistic activity on the vaccine front. For example:

That just means they are years away from a possible safe, effective vaccine.

 

[footenote]

That just means they are years away from a possible safe, effective vaccine.

+1
Even if a safe, effective vaccine were discovered by year-end 2020, we're still at least another year away from the vaccine being affordably, widely available (much less administered). (And probably much longer than that.)

We're consistently under-reacting to this reality because most of us can't imagine staggering along in this state for another 18+ months.

 

[mpeirce]

+1
Even if a safe, effective vaccine were discovered by year-end 2020, we're still at least another year away from the vaccine being affordably, widely available

Maybe you didn't even read the article?

Pfizer has been working to scale up manufacturing for its vaccines at its facilities in the U.S. and other countries in the possibility that a candidate proves successful and becomes widely distributed. Along with BioNTech, Pfizer plans to be able to produce up to 100 million doses by the end of the year, and potentially more than 1.2 billion doses by the end of 2021.

100,000,000 doses by the end of this year. That's one company. There are many companies working on similar strategies.

Some 17 vaccines are in human testing, and more than 130 are in development by researchers and companies, according to the World Health Organization.

 

[brewer12345]

Maybe you didn't even read the article?



100,000,000 doses by the end of this year. That's one company. There are many companies working on similar strategies.

Doesn't matter how many they can make. They are years from having a safe and effective vaccine, if they ever get there.

 

[JoeWras]

I think that’s a bit extreme. People can still socialize, but will have to learn to do it from a distance. And to me FaceTime interaction is just the same as being in the same room, but I’m not an extrovert so I can understand that the touchy feely types would be having a hard time with this.

In the Netherlands where my DB and family live they’ve got the infection rate down low enough that a lot of normal life has resumed except for large gatherings.

The context of my extreme quote is a way to exterminate the virus in the face of possible no-immunity.

If there is no immunity, life will never be normal. Countries or regions can get it under control, but it won't go away. Observed and enforced quarantines will be a way of life. A break-out is always around the corner. If you are vulnerable, you will never want to go out again. And we'll see if the young group can keep up social distancing forever. Surviving past age 80 will be a huge challenge. Imagine a lifetime of possible infection at any corner.

Again, I think there is some immunity and this doomsday talk of mine is BS. I think vaccines will be developed that at first are not so good, but will eventually be very good.

So it is more a thought experiment for the long term and not a discussion about today's poor efforts at control.

 

[ivinsfan]

Europe seems to have restored their citizenry's public health and with it their economy has reopened. Travel has resumed within the Schengen nations and they have allowed travel from other countries which have had similar success. European governments were very serious with their lockdowns and they were near total. I hope their success continues, as it could be a model for others.

Keep in mind Europe opening has been gradual and very recent.. Let's see what things look like over there in another few weeks.

 

[tmm99]

I read that the vaccination effort is on the first strain. I wonder how that will work for the second strain prevalent in the US?

 

[ivinsfan]

Doesn't matter how many they can make. They are years from having a safe and effective vaccine, if they ever get there.

For sure and while I'll be first in line for a proven effective vaccines, after the disaster of the swine flu vaccine I'm not too thrilled about any rushing for a COVID vaccine. It takes as long as it takes since I don't want French polio or anything of that ilk..

 

[Rianne]

When I was in 2nd grade my family took a trip to a dude ranch in Colorado. My mom and I went on an overnight in the mountains on horseback with a guide and several other people. When we got to the camp we met a hermit. He lived alone up there and told us stories around the campfire. I remember feeling sorry for him. Alone in nature, so few people to talk to. I'm starting to rethink that whole idea. Sounds pretty good these days.

 

[MichaelB]

In short, we better find some sort of mitigation to this if there is "no" immunity.

We already know how to do this. The real question is why aren’t we?

People primarily concerned with health and those more concerned about the economy share a common objective, which is to get the virus reproduction rate below one. This allows both to advance toward their goals.

Large scale continuous testing with near real time results, together with masks in social situations, achieves this. The cost of the masks is insignificant when compared with the loss of economic activity caused by rampant spread.

In any scenario, this combination of 2 measures leads to a better outcome. If no vaccination is ever found or if effective treatment takes more time to discover, a reproduction rate below 1 means the spread slows. The immediate compelling need is the slow the spread and keep it slow.

100% compliance is not needed for these measures to achieve widespread effectiveness. Even when a minority refuses to cooperate, the critical issue is just slowing the spread, and most of the country benefits when most of the population participates.

Encouraging the use of masks combined with continuous testing is the most effective way to allow business to resume with higher levels of consumer and employee confidence. Mask wearing needs to be shown as a pro-economy attitude.

 

[JoeWras]

MichaelB: so I ask. Would this mean no more indoor spectator sports? That is something we are doing today. No immunity might mean forever?

Just an example. I know everyone could wear N95 masks, but it kind of interferes with beer drinking.

Again, ya'll are scaring me with this no-immunity thing, so I'm trying to think how we could live in such a future.

 

[mpeirce]

More "unwarranted" good news:

The study, which analyzed medical records of 2,541 Covid-19 patients, suggests that hydroxychloroquine can be effective if given during the early stages of contracting the virus and at the right dose.
...
In the peer-reviewed study published Thursday, about 13% of the patients who received hydroxychloroquine died, compared with 26% patients who didn’t receive the medication.

That's pretty impressive actually. Roughly a 50% reduction in deaths.

Also, take it when you first get sick, don't wait until you are really sick. Other studies show that it's much less effective then.

 

[pacergal]

We already know how to do this. The real question is why aren’t we?

People primarily concerned with health and those more concerned about the economy share a common objective, which is to get the virus reproduction rate below one. This allows both to advance toward their goals.

Large scale continuous testing with near real time results, together with masks in social situations, achieves this. The cost of the masks is insignificant when compared with the loss of economic activity caused by rampant spread.

In any scenario, this combination of 2 measures leads to a better outcome. If no vaccination is ever found or if effective treatment takes more time to discover, a reproduction rate below 1 means the spread slows. The immediate compelling need is the slow the spread and keep it slow.

100% compliance is not needed for these measures to achieve widespread effectiveness. Even when a minority refuses to cooperate, the critical issue is just slowing the spread, and most of the country benefits when most of the population participates.

Encouraging the use of masks combined with continuous testing is the most effective way to allow business to resume with higher levels of consumer and employee confidence. Mask wearing needs to be shown as a pro-economy attitude.

Agree 100%
Because this is a novel virus, we just don't know what we don't know.
Testing and wearing masks is a proven way to learn how to live with this virus in society. We may be a ways off from world wide herd immunity, even with a vaccine.
As a health care professional, I can't tell you how many folks refuse to get a flu shot every year. I imagine this will be the same. Even if only 50% effective, its better than nothing, no?
Help with immunity and keep the economy going. It's not political, nor should it be.

 

[GTFan]

Well hallelujah! Hopefully Georgia will follow soon.

Gov. Kemp says if we don't wear masks there may not be college football this year, which may be as good as mandating them for a lot of anti-mask folks.

 

[MichaelB]

MichaelB: so I ask. Would this mean no more indoor spectator sports? That is something we are doing today. No immunity might mean forever?

Virologists, epidemiologists and MDs still do not have sufficient understanding of COVID reproduction or human immunity. So far we have mostly observations, not knowledge. This makes it impossible to build a model to predict the future or model different longer term scenarios. The best we can do now is slow the spread and support “all-in” efforts to gain knowledge, treatments and (hopefully) cures and vaccines.

 

[tulak]

Keep in mind Europe opening has been gradual and very recent.. Let's see what things look like over there in another few weeks.

My family in Europe returned to a new “normal” in early May. May 25th, restaurants and bars opened. I was skeptical at first, but it seems to be working well for them. I’d take it here in a heartbeat.

Keep in mind that it’s not perfect. They’ve had an uptick in cases over the last few days, but so far it’s been contained.

I suspect that outbreaks will be the new normal and we will have to be diligent for the next couple of years. They key is keep them isolated. But if we do some basic stuff, then we can muddle through this time with some semblance of normalcy.

 

[JoeWras]

Virologists, epidemiologists and MDs still do not know sufficient understanding of COVID reproduction or human immunity. So far we have mostly observations, not knowledge. This makes it impossible to build a model to predict the future or model different longer term scenarios. The best we can do now is slow the spread and support “all-in” efforts to gain knowledge, treatments and (hopefully) cures and vaccines.

Good answer. Let's do our best now regardless and tamp down the doomsday scenarios. We know what we can do now, so let's do it!

 

[audreyh1]

Gov. Kemp says if we don't wear masks there may not be college football this year, which may be as good as mandating them for a lot of anti-mask folks.

My cousin was telling me that Kemp has been flying around the state encouraging everyone to wear masks, and yes football was one of the reasons. That’s exactly what’s needed - a big coordinated effort to get out the message. Like high profile folks encouraging and explaining how important mask wearing in public is, as well as advertising, signage. Like with other big campaigns such as anti-litter (Don’t Mess with Texas).

 

[audreyh1]

Keep in mind Europe opening has been gradual and very recent.. Let's see what things look like over there in another few weeks.

Amsterdam had kids back to school over a month ago.

 

[Chuckanut]

Here in Washington the Guv has just announced businesses risk losing their license if they don't require masks for all who enter and/or they conduct business with a maskless person. This starts in a few days. In my area there are plenty of people who will be happy to report a non-compliant business. People have had it with what they see as a the selfish minority that is ruining it for everybody.

FWIW, I give my Guv a grade of 'C'. He has taken action in emergency situations that required it, but his follow through has been very poorly executed.

As a so-called HI Risk person I am happy to lock myself at home for a month or two if it gets my kids back to work, preserves the economy and lets me return to a more normal life in the Fall. But, our elected leaders need to get on the ball and make some tough decisions. Pointing the guilty finger at people in the other party, and calling for new taxes doesn't qualify as leadership IMHO.

Just to keep this on topic... I congratulate Texas for beating out Florida in the race to not reach the bottom. Keep up the good work.

 

[audreyh1]

We already know how to do this. The real question is why aren’t we?

People primarily concerned with health and those more concerned about the economy share a common objective, which is to get the virus reproduction rate below one. This allows both to advance toward their goals.

Large scale continuous testing with near real time results, together with masks in social situations, achieves this. The cost of the masks is insignificant when compared with the loss of economic activity caused by rampant spread.

In any scenario, this combination of 2 measures leads to a better outcome. If no vaccination is ever found or if effective treatment takes more time to discover, a reproduction rate below 1 means the spread slows. The immediate compelling need is the slow the spread and keep it slow.

100% compliance is not needed for these measures to achieve widespread effectiveness. Even when a minority refuses to cooperate, the critical issue is just slowing the spread, and most of the country benefits when most of the population participates.

Encouraging the use of masks combined with continuous testing is the most effective way to allow business to resume with higher levels of consumer and employee confidence. Mask wearing needs to be shown as a pro-economy attitude.

Very well said!

 

[ivinsfan]

Amsterdam had kids back to school over a month ago.

The school issue is interesting some have been saying all along that schools might not be a big infection vector