Wow, it’s getting really scary in Texas - and everywhere else!

[Montecfo]

Worldometer is not the definitive source but as of yesterday Florida so far has 244,151 cases and 4,102 deaths for a case fatality rate of 1.7%. Given that deaths lag case identification by 2-4 weeks their true rate may be higher. This is likely the low end for this number as the first states affected: NY, NJ, MI, MA, PA all had numbers closer to 8% possibly due to a higher penetration into the elderly population before the risk was fully recognized. The CFR was higher in most of the early hit EU countries - Italy, Spain and the UK at 14%, 9% and 15% respectively. Again, partly due to penetration into more aged populations. It is hard to be overly optimistic about the situation in the US.

The Infection Fatality Rate is always lower than the CFR, usually much lower, as it includes asymptomatic individuals.

Well yeah. The case number is also understated, so hard to get a definitive reading.

 

[Chuckanut]

Yes. Very good point. If these states are riding up the curve, you can be sure today they are much higher on that curve than what their dashboard says.

+1

One of the first things we learned from Drs. F and B was that what we are seeing today is the result of what happened two weeks ago.

 

[Golden sunsets]

Oh, I hope he doesn't get the relentless cough with the covid19. Having six broken ribs would be painful enough without having a coughing fit. I hope he gets well soon.

Thanks. I believe his Covid symptoms are mild, although his recovery from the heart issues has been slow. He has felt very fatigued, which may be related. He is a relative of a dear friend, so we are not directly in contact.

Regarding Ivinsfans admonishment up string, I don't think anything I related could be interpreted to dissuade a person from seeking emergency health care, but I do take this first hand account as a cautionary tale to do everything possible to protect ourselves so that the need for emergency health care is minimized.

As a result of this experience of a personal acquaintance, DH has postponed an elective surgery procedure, originally scheduled for this month. It's just not that urgent a procedure and can be postponed.

 

[Katsmeow]

But, but, but we keep getting told that the mortality rate is so much lower. Was that all boosterism and BS?

Sometimes people don't understand the lag there is between infection and death. Even the governor (in Tx) said that the deaths now mostly reflect people who were infected in May and he warned that given recent hospitalization rates we can expect much more fatalities.

He said that if people didn't start really following the mask requirement then he might have to do new shutdowns.

The situation in Texas is difficult. I live in the DFW area. My husband's daughter lives in a suburb of Austin and has Covid (with minimal symptoms). My daughter lives in Houston and is working but being very cautious. She uses mask at work and gloves (she works retail) and only goes out to the grocery store. Still, I do worry since she comes into contact with customers at work. She says that her store keeps a box of disposable masks and if someone comes in without a mask they give them a mask to wear.

Anyway, the school issue is a difficult one. There is no easy answer. Supposedly the schools are supposed to offer in school learning for everyone or a distance option. The other option is homeschooling which for families that can do it, I would think is preferable (note I homeschooled my daughter during high school and homeschooled my sons for a year in elementary school).

It isn't just whether the kids are contagious. The kids aren't at school by themselves. What about adult staff passing it on to other adult staff? I have read some about schooling options in other countries. If I was in charge of this, I would probably delay in person classes for a while and then start them for the kids who really need in person instruction (particularly special needs kids). To make this work, a school needs to have the kids with a lot of distancing and very low numbers. I don't see Texas having the will to do any of that. Many people here just don't take any precautions beyond what they are required to do. And, if they won't do that then it is hard to see the epidemic slowing down here. Yes, some people are being cautious. But many just aren't. Hence, why the numbers are so high here. I am so cautious about going out. But, I sometimes feel like I live in another world. I am on some local Facebook groups and people talk about where they are going to go for vacation this summer (in the US of course) and where they will to get their nails done or going shopping at this store, etc. They don't see the cumulative effect of their individual choices.

That said, even many of the people who are going out are worried about the school issue.

 

[audreyh1]

Conspiracy theories can be deadly...



30-year-old dies after attending 'COVID party' thinking virus was a 'hoax'

This reminds me of a sad BBC story in early May about a Florida man.
https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-52731624

"We thought the government was using it to distract us," says Brian Lee Hitchens, "or it was to do with 5G. So we didn't follow the rules or seek help sooner."

Brian, 46, is talking by phone from his hospital bed in Florida. His wife is critically ill - sedated, on a ventilator in an adjacent ward.

"The battle that they've been having is with her lungs," he says, voice wobbling. "They're inflamed. Her body just is not responding."

After reading online conspiracy theories, they thought the disease was a hoax - or, at the very least, no worse than flu. But then in early May, the couple caught Covid-19.

"And now I realise that coronavirus is definitely not fake," he says, running out of breath. "It's out there and it's spreading."

 

[jim584672]

How can something that is worldwide be a hoax? What is wrong with these people?

 

[Turbo29]

The mayor of Phoenix just said that some local hospitals would sold have to bring in refrigerated trucks. I am sure those will be used to hold all the popsicles and ice cream sandwiches the staff needs...

She was mistaken.
Hospitals have not run out. The trucks are for just in case in preparation for a surge.

Also the article below explains that the County morgue actually rarely gets covid deaths.


https://www.azcentral.com/story/new...space-despite-phoenix-mayor-claim/5418150002/

 

[audreyh1]

How can something that is worldwide be a hoax? What is wrong with these people?

They may not be convinced it’s worldwide or some other rationale. It seems that many folks get caught up in extremely convoluted stories to explain things.

 

[jj]

How can something that is worldwide be a hoax? What is wrong with these people?

I know you meant this as a rhetorical question but I'm sure they've convinced themselves that it's 'fake news'. Incredibly sad.

 

[brewer12345]

She was mistaken.
Hospitals have not run out. The trucks are for just in case in preparation for a surge.

Also the article below explains that the County morgue actually rarely gets covid deaths.


https://www.azcentral.com/story/new...space-despite-phoenix-mayor-claim/5418150002/

Amazing. Wonder what her motivation was or if she is simply a dumbass?

 

[34rlsa]

IMHO

The data we are receiving from all the news and internet sources is not that much different from the "stock market porn" distributed daily for click bait.

Daily cases are not daily... daily deaths are not daily... daily hospitalization... who knows. The data can be manipulated to spin the news outlets agenda.

We... personally... are taking very serious precautions... better safe than sorry.

But... I don't trust any of it... due to the media's politicalization of every social issue how can we?

I wish all of you the very best... take care of yourselves... but please don't let the news affect the quality of life you should be enjoying in retirement.

 

[tmm99]

I know you meant this as a rhetorical question but I'm sure they've convinced themselves that it's 'fake news'. Incredibly sad.

Incredibly sad indeed...

 

[brewer12345]

IMHO

The data we are receiving from all the news and internet sources is not that much different from the "stock market porn" distributed daily for click bait.

Daily cases are not daily... daily deaths are not daily... daily hospitalization... who knows. The data can be manipulated to spin the news outlets agenda.

We... personally... are taking very serious precautions... better safe than sorry.

But... I don't trust any of it... due to the media's politicalization of every social issue how can we?

I wish all of you the very best... take care of yourselves... but please don't let the news affect the quality of life you should be enjoying in retirement.

So you seem to think this is fake news, but are taking precautions anyway?

 

[34rlsa]

So you seem to think this is fake news, but are taking precautions anyway?

No... not fake news... manipulated news.

The virus is real... but there have been so many contradictory reports of the "facts" from the very beginning of this pandemic how can we know the truth?

We are taking precautions because we don't know the truth... and apparently neither do the "experts". Look at the history of their fatality projections... don't wear a mask... wear a mask... only affects the old or those with underlying health problems... type O blood no worries... etc.

Do they provide the specifics of each serious hospitalization or death... do we really know how serious the virus is for people without underlying conditions? It may be much more serious than we are led to believe or not. I don't know... we don't have all the facts.

I'm not saying we are being lied to or the news is fake. Its more scary than that... I'm saying the "experts" don't have all the facts themselves and are shooting from the hip. Either for political reasons or just trying to cover their own asses.

And that is why we take precautions.

AND... I know this forum will not allow politicalization of any topic; however if you're reading the daily news like I am from a wide variety of sources and don't believe the "virus news" has been politicized to fit the agenda of the source... you may have succumb to false hope or exaggerated catastrophe.

 

[audreyh1]

IMHO
The data we are receiving from all the news and internet sources is not that much different from the "stock market porn" distributed daily for click bait.

Daily cases are not daily... daily deaths are not daily... daily hospitalization... who knows. The data can be manipulated to spin the news outlets agenda.

I can understand your frustration with media stories, but I don’t really care if the cases or deaths or hospitalizations reported occurred on the exact day they were reported - of course there are some delays and catching up. You can look at 7 day averages instead if you want - that’s why they are provided, to filter out some of that inevitable noise. What matters are the trends as well as cumulative totals. If you are worried about media spin, you can go to the county and state websites directly yourself and look at the raw numbers. There are also independent internet sites such as Johns Hopkins collecting and presenting COVID-19 data, and just presenting the data with no associated news story or “spin”.

 

[audreyh1]

We are taking precautions because we don't know the truth... and apparently neither do the "experts". Look at the history of their fatality projections... don't wear a mask... wear a mask... only affects the old or those with underlying health problems... type O blood no worries... etc.

Do they provide the specifics of each serious hospitalization or death... do we really know how serious the virus is for people without underlying conditions? It may be much more serious than we are led to believe or not. I don't know... we don't have all the facts.

These are many things that simply can’t be precisely known yet about this virus and the infections. We’re learning new stuff every day, and of course a lot of it has to be challenged, reviewed, revised, etc. Even people in the thick of things don’t always agree on what is happening at any given moment. Yes, the “experts” are still figuring this out, and some are slow to respond to new information. It’s an extremely messy business that we are all having to live out in real time.

I think many here are erring on the side of caution for good reason, and not assuming that because of any one report that you don’t have to worry about X or that Y solves the problem, they can blow caution to the wind.

 

[audreyh1]

OK - Florida has been catching up with Texas and will likely surpass Texas in total cases relatively soon, as according to worldometers they are within 5000 cases of each other, whereas a couple of weeks ago the gap was much larger. Recently Florida has been running a higher daily case rate than Texas most days.

 

[harllee]

No... not fake news... manipulated news.

The virus is real... but there have been so many contradictory reports of the "facts" from the very beginning of this pandemic how can we know the truth?

We are taking precautions because we don't know the truth... and apparently neither do the "experts". Look at the history of their fatality projections... don't wear a mask... wear a mask... only affects the old or those with underlying health problems... type O blood no worries... etc.

Do they provide the specifics of each serious hospitalization or death... do we really know how serious the virus is for people without underlying conditions? It may be much more serious than we are led to believe or not. I don't know... we don't have all the facts.

I'm not saying we are being lied to or the news is fake. Its more scary than that... I'm saying the "experts" don't have all the facts themselves and are shooting from the hip. Either for political reasons or just trying to cover their own asses.

And that is why we take precautions.

AND... I know this forum will not allow politicalization of any topic; however if you're reading the daily news like I am from a wide variety of sources and don't believe the "virus news" has been politicized to fit the agenda of the source... you may have succumb to false hope or exaggerated catastrophe.

I have pretty much quit watching cable news but I do read my local paper and listen to NPR. However I do personally know these truths--I personally know 2 people who have died from Covid-19, I personally know 3 people who are still very sick from the virus after months and many others who have had the virus and hopefully seem to have recovered. That is enough for me to know this virus is very very serious and I have changed my life style and I am taking all precautions for me and the people I love.

 

[Dtail]

IMHO

The data we are receiving from all the news and internet sources is not that much different from the "stock market porn" distributed daily for click bait.

Daily cases are not daily... daily deaths are not daily... daily hospitalization... who knows. The data can be manipulated to spin the news outlets agenda.

We... personally... are taking very serious precautions... better safe than sorry.

But... I don't trust any of it... due to the media's politicalization of every social issue how can we?

I wish all of you the very best... take care of yourselves... but please don't let the news affect the quality of life you should be enjoying in retirement.

I can understand when there are comments from the NON media's politicalization of this virus like "we have the lowest death rate", when the actual death rate per 1m is the 7th highest among the the top 100 countries measured by the most cases.

 

[Aerides]

As a result of this experience of a personal acquaintance, DH has postponed an elective surgery procedure, originally scheduled for this month. It's just not that urgent a procedure and can be postponed.

Of course this is a decision for everyone to make, but a lot of elective procedures are done in different facilities: Outpatient-only or Surgery centers, for example. And even if they are in the "regular" hospitals, you'd not go thru the ER or the Covid areas, or interact with any other patients.

I had delayed a knee repair, but finally went ahead this week. I know there was some risk vs. staying home, but I had already put it off for months and didn't want to run the risk that electives get stopped again..and things get even worse before I got around to it. (and mine was a stand-along surgery center)

 

[CaptTom]

What I'm seeing is not so much the media spinning the story (which of course they do) but the viewers and listeners selecting only the bits they prefer to believe.

There is so much new about this virus, so much we've learned and so much yet to learn.

Obviously the recommendations from January and February were made knowing very little of what we know today. They were not "wrong" and they were not deliberately misleading. They were the best guesses at the time.

We didn't know there was so much asymptomatic spread, so mask wearing didn't seem necessary. Now that we know it's critical, some people want to use that change in recommendations to "prove" that they should disregard all science.

Willful, intentional ignorance on the part of individuals scares me far more than media bias, which I can filter out on my own. Especially when people in influential positions do it.

 

[Golden sunsets]

My concern is, (or would be if I lived in one of the currently spiking states), what is the likelihood that a plateau will be reached anytime soon, if the state remains open? It's not as though we can expect the flattening and then downward trend to replicate the Northeast's experience. And what happens when school starts?

 

[gattara]

My concern is, (or would be if I lived in one of the currently spiking states), what is the likelihood that a plateau will be reached anytime soon, if the state remains open? It's not as though we can expect the flattening and then downward trend to replicate the Northeast's experience. And what happens when school starts?

Yeah. Exactly. Time will tell. Many of us here in Georgia are wondering the same.

 

[Turbo29]

Amazing. Wonder what her motivation was or if she is simply a dumbass?

Having actually interacted with her personally when she was campaigning prior to her election, I tend towards the dumbass view.

 

[Aerides]

Can we try to please leave out the political commentary? Even if we're just talking local politicians, it opens the door to the type of partisanship that will shut down any thread.