Wow, it’s getting really scary in Texas - and everywhere else!

[brewer12345]

Would your buddy rather be dead or have COVID? On your conjecture did he at any time see any person that was not connected to the hospital?

Please don't make people afraid to seek necessary medical care...

I think if you are having a cardiac event, it is not a deterrent and you will seek care. My friend was unconscious and the first hospital didn't expect him to live.

A broken toe might be another matter.

 

[bmcgonig]

Not heard that before.

In March my sister called up the NHS 111 hotline and gave her symptoms over the phone, and then she was told to go in for a test. Test was negative but she was then diagnosed by a doctor to have pleurisy.

In late May my son developed a cough so went online and booked a test at our nearest mobile test centre. No doctor involved in either booking or administering the test. Next day got a text saying negative.

In Ireland you have to call a doctor to get a test. They're the gatekeepers. They will arrange the test for you. But you don't have to see one. And it's free.

 

[Rianne]

I get e-mails (updates) from the NEJM. This came in today. Very interesting, a little long. The suggestion, cheap, rapid testing. Ability to test daily. We have to develop the ability to do this. The only way to know if we are contagious...today.



Edit: I keep thinking of something like a diabetes blood sugar test. Quick and simple.

https://blogs.jwatch.org/hiv-id-obs...M_Registered_Users_and_InActive&bid=225030212

 

[Aerides]

So that makes it ten times worse than the seasonal flu ?

As much as I loathe flu comparisons, one thing I've learned is that the "how many" data about the flu are largely conjecture and far from exact.

For example the number of cases of the flu is absolutely not "those who have tested positive for influenza", rather, there's a lot of historical modeling and estimating worked into the numbers.

So it's not apples to apples, when we limit our metrics on Covid to tested confirmed cases. Nor should/will it be for a very long time. And with so many active cases, until those are resolved, all the data is in flux and will be for many more months.

Whether the rates go down or not, still, is irrelevant to me as an individual. I'll still take steps to avoid getting sick, as I can handle the trade off.

 

[ivinsfan]

Not heard that before.

In March my sister called up the NHS 111 hotline and gave her symptoms over the phone, and then she was told to go in for a test. Test was negative but she was then diagnosed by a doctor to have pleurisy.

In late May my son developed a cough so went online and booked a test at our nearest mobile test centre. No doctor involved in either booking or administering the test. Next day got a text saying negative.

I think things got more open as time progressed

As I said it was the same way in MN at first you had to be sick to get a test. I have a cousin in London who told me she could not get tested because she wasn't sick even though she had traveled to Spain and worked in a hospital..this was in March

 

[CaptTom]

There's a testing center right down the road from me. It's set up for a long line of cars, with a check-in tent at one end and the testing at the other. Check-in is manned by folks in uniform, probably National Guard.

I've never seen more than one car there. Usually it's deserted, with the folks at the tent looking very bored.

My son needed to get a test for work. Took him two days to get a doctor AND nurse (not sure why) to approve him for the test. Took another two days for the result.

I am at a loss to understand why they are making it so hard to get a test. And, if they know this, why they're setting up all these testing centers which are doing so little testing.

 

[Alan]

We had arranged to see our son outdoors, socially distanced, and he texted me to say that he had a bit of a cough so was isolating. I asked him if he had not been following the news because they were desperate to have people showing any symptoms to get tested. He went online and booked a test and there were loads of slots available so he booked one for 30 minutes later as it was a 15 minute drive to get there. It was guys in army fatigues who were manning the test site in the car park of our local horse racecourse.

 

[6miths]

Florida rate of fatalities is 2%.

2% of what number..the number tested positive? I keep seeing that you need to multiply the number of positive test by 10 to 12 to get the number of actual cases in a state. In our state you had to have symptoms to get tested for at least the first 2 months....

The Brits had an even better way to lower the numbers you had to actually see a doctor in person because you felt ill to get a test.

We sure get a lot of numbers thrown at us, don't we....I'm afraid the actual death rate with never be known with a degree of certainty.

Of course if someone actually gets COVID their death is either 0 or 100%..

Worldometer is not the definitive source but as of yesterday Florida so far has 244,151 cases and 4,102 deaths for a case fatality rate of 1.7%. Given that deaths lag case identification by 2-4 weeks their true rate may be higher. This is likely the low end for this number as the first states affected: NY, NJ, MI, MA, PA all had numbers closer to 8% possibly due to a higher penetration into the elderly population before the risk was fully recognized. The CFR was higher in most of the early hit EU countries - Italy, Spain and the UK at 14%, 9% and 15% respectively. Again, partly due to penetration into more aged populations. It is hard to be overly optimistic about the situation in the US.

The Infection Fatality Rate is always lower than the CFR, usually much lower, as it includes asymptomatic individuals.

 

[tulak]

In Seattle, it’s easy to get tested. I had it done and the location I went to is a converted car emissions test facility. I scheduled an appointment online, arrived at my time and had the test done. I had my results the next morning (negative, fortunately).

I looked at their site and it appears the next available appointments are a few days out.

 

[MichaelB]

Worldometer is not the definitive source but as of yesterday Florida so far has 244,151 cases and 4,102 deaths for a case fatality rate of 1.7%. Given that deaths lag case identification by 2-4 weeks their true rate may be higher. This is likely the low end for this number as the first states affected: NY, NJ, MI, MA, PA all had numbers closer to 8% possibly due to a higher penetration into the elderly population before the risk was fully recognized. The CFR was higher in most of the early hit EU countries - Italy, Spain and the UK at 14%, 9% and 15% respectively. Again, partly due to penetration into more aged populations. It is hard to be overly optimistic about the situation in the US.

The Infection Fatality Rate is always lower than the CFR, usually much lower, as it includes asymptomatic cases.

Your calculation is more accurate. I use the State of Florida COVID dashboard, which reports resident and non-residents separately, and did some mental math.


Florida Dashboard https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

 

[JoeWras]

Well, in the south USA, testing is again in crisis mode. Although it is easy to get a test, the turn around for a large portion of them is problematic. This is different than the overall scarcity earlier.

Aside from my family member's 9 day wait, it turns out my SIL found out through a contact tracer that a clinic she visited had an outbreak. She found out 9 days after her visit. Again, the testing delay. In lieu of a test, she waited another week and feels fine (16 days now). And my BIL in TN had a coworker test positive. He got tested, found out he was negative. Wait time 7 days.

This test wait delay is surely contributing to the spread.

 

[Another Reader]

We had arranged to see our son outdoors, socially distanced, and he texted me to say that he had a bit of a cough so was isolating. I asked him if he had not been following the news because they were desperate to have people showing any symptoms to get tested. He went online and booked a test and there were loads of slots available so he booked one for 30 minutes later as it was a 15 minute drive to get there. It was guys in army fatigues who were manning the test site in the car park of our local horse racecourse.

Your peak was much earlier than in the US. I have read numerous accounts in the COVID support groups from people in Britain that were unable to get tests back in February and into March. Just as in the US, testing was reserved for only a few groups. Access improved with time, just as it did here.

 

[JoeWras]

A bit more on the delays. Our experience matches this report.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...delayed-labs-struggle-cases-surge/5406936002/

The region's largest commercial lab, Sonora Quest, a joint venture of Quest Diagnostics and Arizona’s largest hospital system, Banner Health, said most COVID test results take eight to nine days
...
"But with significant increases in testing demand and constraints in the availability of supplies and equipment, the average time to deliver results may now be four to six days," for non-hospital patients, LabCorp said Wednesday.
...
“The amount of time it is taking to receive testing results is hurting the ability of long term facilities to fight the virus," said Mark Parkinson

 

[Aerides]

in addition to the actual test delays (from a patient to get their results) I would absolutely factor in another handful of days to states to gather and report data, since I would bet that is not happening in real time. Not with medical and government databases, no way.

So, FL reporting abother 10k new cases today likely represents new people who presented themselves for testing anywhere from 10-14 days ago, and were initially exposed 14-20 days ago.

 

[JoeWras]

So, FL reporting abother 10k new cases today likely represents new people who presented themselves for testing anywhere from 10-14 days ago, and were initially exposed 14-20 days ago.

Yes. Very good point. If these states are riding up the curve, you can be sure today they are much higher on that curve than what their dashboard says.

 

[MichaelB]

Yes. Very good point. If these states are riding up the curve, you can be sure today they are much higher on that curve than what their dashboard says.

Right. The key indicator to look for is a decline in the % of positive tests while the number of tests administered continues to grow or remains steady. That is the first real sign new infections will begin to fall.

According to the Florida State Dashboard the positive rate was <5% six weeks ago and has risen steadily since then to around 12%, and still rising.

 

[Helen]

We have a friend who was brought to the ER a couple of weeks ago (by his wife who had to "drop him off at the ER door"), with chest pains, had 2 heart attacks in the hospital, went into cardiac arrest twice, suffered 6 broken ribs as a result of the resusitation, then had 3 stents placed after catheterization, was hospitalized for 3 days and was then released. Still feeling unwell, he returned, first to an emergency clinic and then the ER again a few days later, stayed another 3 days and returned home, only to be contacted a couple of days later to be told he had tested positive for Covid 19, as a result of a routine Covid test administered when he was at the emergency clinic.

We assume he became infected while at the hospital during his first visit.

Note to self: Stay out of the hospital if at all possible.

Oh, I hope he doesn't get the relentless cough with the covid19. Having six broken ribs would be painful enough without having a coughing fit. I hope he gets well soon.

 

[Alan]

Your peak was much earlier than in the US. I have read numerous accounts in the COVID support groups from people in Britain that were unable to get tests back in February and into March. Just as in the US, testing was reserved for only a few groups. Access improved with time, just as it did here.

Absolutely, and just like in the USA it very much depends where you lived. London was almost swamped and possibly in the early weeks folks in London did need to see a doctor in person but I don’t know. Testing, or rather the lack of it, was a major failing in Feb, March and April.

The post I responded to stated that Brits had to see a doctor in person which just wasn’t true as far I knew. My sister called the well publicized national Covid hotline on Saturday March 9th and was referred for a test that day without seeing a doctor. Her symptoms were pretty bad, with a fever and difficulty breathing. Anything less probably would have received the response to isolate and call back if symptoms worsened. No mobile testing stations back then. Our local hospital had “Covid isolation pods” where the testing was done. We had been to the hospital for an eye appointment for my wife in February and saw the signs everywhere directing folks to the pods.

 

[ivinsfan]

Absolutely, and just like in the USA it very much depends where you lived. London was almost swamped and possibly in the early weeks folks in London did need to see a doctor in person but I don’t know. Testing, or rather the lack of it, was a major failing in Feb, March and April.

The post I responded to stated that Brits had to see a doctor in person which just wasn’t true as far I knew. My sister called the well publicized national Covid hotline on Saturday March 9th and was referred for a test that day without seeing a doctor. Her symptoms were pretty bad, with a fever and difficulty breathing. Anything less probably would have received the response to isolate and call back if symptoms worsened. No mobile testing stations back then. Our local hospital had “Covid isolation pods” where the testing was done. We had been to the hospital for an eye appointment for my wife in February and saw the signs everywhere directing folks to the pods.

You know I used a second hand report for that and just took what my cousin said at face value...in hindsight maybe she meant that because she didn't feel sick enough to need a doctor she didn't get a test...

She was pretty wound up about it and ended up with a case of Shingles no COVID but Shingles. Her work had scheduled her at the hospital 3 days after returning from Spain and no COVID test.. she didn't want to go work but couldn't get the test.

 

[jj]

I get e-mails (updates) from the NEJM. This came in today. Very interesting, a little long. The suggestion, cheap, rapid testing. Ability to test daily. We have to develop the ability to do this. The only way to know if we are contagious...today.



Edit: I keep thinking of something like a diabetes blood sugar test. Quick and simple.

https://blogs.jwatch.org/hiv-id-obs...M_Registered_Users_and_InActive&bid=225030212

I agree. Quick, cheap, simple testing that can be done at home (or school) is the only way to get the kids and college students safely back to school this fall. Let's hope it's available soon.

 

[REWahoo]

Conspiracy theories can be deadly...

"I think I made a mistake. I thought this was a hoax, but it's not."

Those were the final words of a 30-year-old patient who died at Methodist Hospital in San Antonio, Texas, this week after attending a so-called "COVID party," according to the hospital's chief medical officer.

30-year-old dies after attending 'COVID party' thinking virus was a 'hoax'

 

[Badger]

I agree. Quick, cheap, simple testing that can be done at home (or school) is the only way to get the kids and college students safely back to school this fall. Let's hope it's available soon.

+1
Absolutely necessary to have quick, cheap, simple testing that can be done daily. I wonder how many millions of people who tested negative think they are now safe and don't wear a mask and distance themselves only to find themselves days later contracting the virus and infecting others. People aren't that bright you know even many of those with a college degree. I see examples of that with way too much frequency these days.


Cheers!

 

[Alan]

You know I used a second hand report for that and just took what my cousin said at face value...in hindsight maybe she meant that because she didn't feel sick enough to need a doctor she didn't get a test...

She was pretty wound up about it and ended up with a case of Shingles no COVID but Shingles. Her work had scheduled her at the hospital 3 days after returning from Spain and no COVID test.. she didn't want to go work but couldn't get the test.

Yes, the testing was abysmal in the early weeks and only got up to reasonable levels by May.

 

[Another Reader]

Yes, the testing was abysmal in the early weeks and only got up to reasonable levels by May.

To be fair, the tests had not been in existence that long when you got hit and manufacturing and processing labs had not ramped up.

 

[Alan]

To be fair, the tests had not been in existence that long when you got hit and manufacturing and processing labs had not ramped up.

Like all preparedness infrastructure people complain about wasting taxpayer money if it is in place and not being used, then complain when it is not there when needed. I was talking with my neighbor a few weeks ago who was complaining about the extra hospital ICU capacity that was built very quickly at great expense but not used. I told him that when they started building it London was seeing hospital admissions doubling every 3 days, and now that it appears to be under control at least there is the infrastructure should there be a second and possibly larger peak in the winter, particularly since flu season always stresses ICU capacity.

Same goes for PPE stockpiling and the subsidies that will be needed if the new UK capacity for making PPE is to compete on price with cheaper overseas suppliers.