Latest Inflation Numbers and Discussion

[aja8888]

So when I said slow cooker, I meant our crock pot on the LOW setting. Is there something more high tech out there than this $25 item I have been using for years?

My 8 quart slow cook crock pot is low tech too and it works just fine. The Instant Pots that were the rage two years ago do the same thing but cost more. Plus they can operate as a pressure cooker.

 

[Markola]

^^^^ and you can brown meat in them or sauté things before pressure cooking them. It’s a convenient, one pot cooking tool and definitely higher tech than a crock pot.

 

[NW-Bound]

They all got that job done, the BBQ pulled pork. The difference is the cooking time.

And yes, the Instant Pot can do a few more tricks.

 

[pb4uski]

OK, here's what I am talkin' about.

[Consumer] sentiment is very directly and very profoundly affected by gas prices," Michael Zdinak, economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, told Yahoo Finance (see chart below). He added that there's a roughly 70% correlation between gas prices and sentiment over the time period shown below...

I cannot link the chart quoted above, but found an equivalent one elsewhere, made with data from the Federal Reserve, St. Louis.

Yeah, the apparent correlation between gas prices and consumer sentiment has always been a mystery to me. If you travel 15,000 miles a year and get 20 mpg and gas is $3.75/gallon then your total cost for the whole year is $2,812... $5,625 if you have 2 cars and a relatively minor portion of the typical household's total spending. So if you spend $60k a year and gas is even $1,000 more or less, would you really notice it?

 

[NW-Bound]

Higher gas prices may drive up other costs, more than the direct cost for a consumer to fill his gas tank. Food costs will go up, airfare, shipping costs, etc...

What I like to see is the correlation of energy costs to the CPI. If the energy cost does not drive up the CPI that much, then the effect on the consumer sentiment is more psychological than financial.

 

[Montecfo]

Pork is really cheap now. I have been making a slow cooker pork shoulder (bone in, $1.89 lb) about once a month. I found a simple recipe, which is to put a cup of bbq sauce (I use sweet honey version) and a can of rootbeer in the slow cooker, plop the pork shoulder in, and leave it alone for 7 to 8 hours. Bingo, delicious pulled pork with a hint of bbq flavor. 3 min prep time.



Potatoes are very expensive now though here...same elsewhere? It is almost $1 per potato here.

One of my favorites.

I cook it in crock 10-12 hours on low without any fluid but seasoned with salt pepper and a whole onion.

When done, use as base for many meals.

Tasty as is, can add BBQ sauce as you suggest or taco seasoning for tacos or taco salad for example.

Good eating and can find them on sale. Then I usually buy two.

 

[Chuckanut]

I can’t imagine this is good for taming inflation.

The Beltway brethren racked up a deficit of $1.62 trillion for the first 10 months of the fiscal year, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s monthly review for July. That’s up from $726 billion a year earlier. If not for shifts in the dates of some payments, CBO says the deficit would have been even higher at $1.7 trillion, or a 131% increase.

From todays WSJ.

 

[Koolau]

China sells huge quantities of goods worldwide. We may be a good customer, but they will do OK even if demand from us drops.

I'll agree to disagree on that one. We are their BEST customer. BUT, YMMV.

 

[audreyh1]

^^^^ and you can brown meat in them or sauté things before pressure cooking them. It’s a convenient, one pot cooking tool and definitely higher tech than a crock pot.

As soon as I got one (Instant Pot) the crock pot was kicked out. I don’t need slow when pressure does it better. The sauté/browning capability so no extra pot sealed the deal. Plus when sealed no heat added to kitchen - big difference. Pressure cooking technology has been around for a long time. Having it all in one plug-in gadget not needing stove top is brilliant (plus programmable and lots of safety features).

 

[Spock]

So when I said slow cooker, I meant our crock pot on the LOW setting. Is there something more high tech out there than this $25 item I have been using for years?

I did some measurements on modern slow cookers to compare the low setting vs high. The final holding temp was the same... it just got there slower. This explained why the pot roast was a brick.
Then I checked an old slow cooker and found 'low' worked as expected.
"They don't make'em like that anymore."

 

[Koolau]

I did some measurements on modern slow cookers to compare the low setting vs high. The final holding temp was the same... it just got there slower. This explained why the pot roast was a brick.
Then I checked an old slow cooker and found 'low' worked as expected.
"They don't make'em like that anymore."

Yeah, ours has to be 25 years old and w*rks like a charm.

 

[Montecfo]

I can’t imagine this is good for taming inflation.



From todays WSJ.

Yes, it is scary how much deficit spending and how little reporting of or concern for this looming time bomb.

We have a growing economy. Why is massive deficit spending necessary?

 

[Chuckanut]

Yes, it is scary how much deficit spending and how little reporting of or concern for this looming time bomb.

No doubt the media folk are busy reporting on other issues like slow cookers.

 

[Winemaker]

That's Southwest's policy problem. There have been article after article written about the healing powers of Southwest's flights (need a wheelchair to board, but they miraculously walk off the place completely healed). I just found one such article: https://bestlifeonline.com/southwest-wheelchair-policy-news/

I agree with your point about the miracle cures however the 8 folks that came off that plane were not physically able to walk. The 3 boarding weren't able either. The gate agent did plead with the gate audience that if they were a preboard and could walk, by all means, please walk.

 

[Gumby]

CPI-U for Jul 2023 is 305.691. Up 3.2% year over year.

CPI-W 299.899 2.7% above average of 3Q22 (and a clue as to the magnitude of the SS COLA to come in January)

 

[JoeWras]

Reading the report (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf). A few thoughts.

Inflation is still drifting down. It isn't cratering, but at least drifting down.

Used cars and new cars are BOTH down. That hasn't happened in a long time. Used cars are showing significant downward pressure. About time. Conversely, auto insurance is up significantly (2% MoM), and auto insurance is a significant factor in overall CPI importance (about 2.5% of CPI).

Health care is still in the high negative mode due to calculation effects. This will stop in the fall.

Per our discussion here: eggs are down, chicken is down, bacon is down!

Hobby, TVs, electronics are all down. These items were hot, hot, hot during the pandemic.

Airline fares down significantly.

 

[Gumby]

I-Bond inflation component as of 11/1/23.

If no deflation between now and September 30, 22023, the inflation component of the next I-bond rate will be a minimum of 2.17%. Don't know about the fixed component.

Based on today's BLS release, this increased to 2.55%

 

[Montecfo]

There were quite a few folks saying prices go up but they never come down. Well, we are certainly seeing prices decline in some areas, particularly for items which rose rapidly in price previously.

 

[JoeWras]

There were quite a few folks saying prices go up but they never come down. Well, we are certainly seeing prices decline in some areas, particularly for items which rose rapidly in price previously.

These folks need to open the pdf and scan the table. Takes 1 minute to get perspective.

 

[Gumby]

These folks need to open the pdf and scan the table. Takes 1 minute to get perspective.

Some folks don't want perspective. They just want to rant.

 

[NW-Bound]

Year-over-year, the index is helped a lot by energy cost declining -12.5% compared to last year.

Crude oil and gasoline prices are rising in recent days. So, we are not out of the woods.

 

[DJRR]

There were quite a few folks saying prices go up but they never come down. Well, we are certainly seeing prices decline in some areas, particularly for items which rose rapidly in price previously.

Clearly the rate of change can go up or down. Over the long run most things cost more than 5 years ago even if they went down this year. Since people focus on expense they forget that incomes are also higher than 5 years ago. All that really matters is the "real" number which of course can be up or down. Real wages were up again this month, so people are doing better overall.

 

[38Chevy454]

Year-over-year, the index is helped a lot by energy cost declining -12.5% compared to last year.

Crude oil and gasoline prices are rising in recent days. So, we are not out of the woods.

Agree, the price of oil affects everything. When oil goes higher then the cost of goods goes up. Whether from raw materials or processing materials derived from oil, or transportation costs. Price of oil is integral to the economy.

 

[Koolau]

Yes, it is scary how much deficit spending and how little reporting of or concern for this looming time bomb.

We have a growing economy. Why is massive deficit spending necessary?

Unfortunately, we can't really get into that.

 

[Koolau]

I agree with your point about the miracle cures however the 8 folks that came off that plane were not physically able to walk. The 3 boarding weren't able either. The gate agent did plead with the gate audience that if they were a preboard and could walk, by all means, please walk.

I've never needed help walking ONTO the plane from the gate. As long as I have my cane, I'm okay for that long a walk. It's between gates that I can no longer do.



I wonder if most people don't tip well for those folks who push. We tip WELL. If other people tip as we do, I'd think there would be folks lined up for that j*b. YMMV