this is getting pretty boring seeing the market slowly take two steps back for every one forward. Does anyone see a light at the end of the tunnel?
Bob
The media make a rather potent doom-and-gloom Kool-Aid that many are freely drinking from.What makes you think that we won't be able to have companies continue to post solid earnings?
The media make a rather potent doom-and-gloom Kool-Aid that many are freely drinking from.
There's a WSJ interview with Greenspan who says economy won't recover until housing prices stabilize -- stop falling.
He says too much supply now and the excess inventory won't be sold off until first half of 2009.
Sounds like if you have new money -- say a big inheritance -- now is not the time to put it in the market?
Or when "safe" or "conservative" investments like Wellington or Wellsley are down only a few percent, is it safe to assume they can't go down further?
I remember back when the Dow was still making new highs we had several threads about how to handle a lump sum: market time, DCA, or get in all in pronto.Too late! I have been DCA'ing my recent windfall, and I am already 82% in (as far as that portion that is destined for the market). Should be 100% in by November. Seems to be doing just fine so far, though.
Hindsight is always fun, but to me the great advantage of DCA, if you do not believe in market timing, is that while you might be slightly p*ssed at yourself or your spouse might be slightly p*ssed at you for not being optimal, you also are not going to be goat of the year.
Since we have to manage our confidence along with our money, I think this is a reasonable constraint to include.
Ha
I read that thread and thought about it, but it made more sense to me (for me) to DCA. It gives me more of an average price, which isn't going to be the best or worst price. Less reason to beat myself up about it. And, it seems to be working out just fine, for me.
Yes, I suddenly realized that and changed my post, and then saw yours in which you had quoted the first version. Oh well! But anyway, I think you are quite right.Yes, this is exactly what I was trying to say.
Ha
A whole six months, huh? If they're selling THAT fast, it sounds like a good time to become a real estate agent. I just don't believe Greenspan on this one.
Too late! I have been DCA'ing my recent windfall, and I am already 82% in (as far as that portion that is destined for the market). Should be 100% in by November. Seems to be doing just fine so far, though.
They can always move either up or down. They are just not very volatile so they tend to make less exaggerated moves in either direction. Also Wellesley, which I have, sheds some nice dividends which cut back the sting when share price drops a few percent.
Yes, I suddenly realized that and changed my post, and then saw yours in which you had quoted the first version. Oh well! But anyway, I think you are quite right.
I think that if you take 100 people who are DCA'ing (or one person who has the opportunity to DCA or not on each of 100 instances), their average would be better with a lump sum because the money would be in the market longer, on average.
But for one 60-year-old, timid person such as myself with one windfall to handle, well, I just can't take that chance. If I want to gamble, I go to the casinos with $20 (even if the odds are more in my favor by investing large amounts in lump sums).