Any Bulls Left?

[Bikerdude]

This article (Abandon all hope ye still awaiting market rebound, then healing can begin -- chicagotribune.com) in this morning's Tribune struck me--she's saying (I think) that the markets can't recover until there's more negativism. So quit being so optimistic, you guys!!!

I've heard it said we can tell when we are at a market bottom when everyone is disgusted with the market, does not listen to financial news and no longer invests in stocks. I think S&P500 at 400 to 600 should do it for me.

 

[2B]

Somewhere in between the two of you lies a happier medium.

Would it help to run scenarios through FinancialEngines.com or ESPlanner?


"I'm going to take some off the table... and this time I really mean it!!"

A couple years ago it felt really stupid to be putting a cash stash in those measly 6.25% PenFed CDs when the market was returning double digits.

I'm an engineer. I've run scenarios all over the place. I have my own Excel program that takes into account inflation, rate of return, pensions, SS, heath insurance, medicare, etc. I don't have the 2nd Coming in but I figure it like nuclear attack are outside my ability to compensate for.

Fortunately, I moved enough into cash in Aug 2007 to cover a decent but modest retirement. I could lose my j*b tomorrow and I'm safely FI. All my extras like extensive traveling and gifting to grandkids is currently going up in smoke.

A few years ago I put all my CDs into less than 2 year maturities because I believed interest rates would be going up big time by now. Talk about feeling stupid.

 

[audreyh1]

Well, I'm pretty much at the "can't listen to financial news anymore" because I'm tired of the panicking and wailing financial journalists. I might start watching again when they calm down and grow up. That might be a while!

Audrey

 

[2B]

And need I even mention the housing market?

We had a contract on our money pit but the buyers backed out. We have another nibble but not a formal offer. We don't need to sell and it looks like the Houston market has hit the toilet. We will probably take it off the market within the next month.

 

[ls99]

Someone has to say it. I'll do it.

It has been down so long, it seems like up to me.

Can't remember the originator.

 

[FUEGO]

How many of you are thinking "As soon as the market recovers, I'm going to decrease my stock allocation percentage"?

I'm in this camp, Al. But that is more a function of getting closer to FIRE and having more assets than specific fear of loss in the markets. I had originally planned on FIRE with 80-100% equities, now I've backed that down about 20% to 60-80% equities. The scarier the market gets, the closer to 60% I feel myself leaning!

Still at 100% equities.

 

[Nords]

On the negativism - this is the most negative I have ever seen things in the last 10 years. Way more negative than the dot com crash. It's so negative, that the market news anchors get mad or argue ferociously if anyone dares say anything remotely positive.

Remember the late 1970s? I'm waiting until a young crop of gurus advises buying investment-grade diamonds.

A few years ago I put all my CDs into less than 2 year maturities because I believed interest rates would be going up big time by now. Talk about feeling stupid.

I guess the good news is that PenFed is offering HELOCs at 2.75%...

Someone has to say it. I'll do it.
It has been down so long, it seems like up to me.
Can't remember the originator.

IIRC it's that great 20th-century economist, David Clayton Thomas, in his brilliant white-paper analysis of the leading indicators named "Hi-De-Ho"... or was that Carole King?
http://www.rdrop.com/users/rickert/bst-lyrics.html#hidiho

 

[mja]

How many of you are thinking "As soon as the market recovers, I'm going to decrease my stock allocation percentage"?

I'm in a target 2025 fund for the most part, so they'll do that for me as time marches on

I have those thoughts about my GF's VA. Fortunately we moved it to Fidelity in early 08, changing it from 100% stock to 75% at the time. I was unsuccessful at convincing her to go further than that. She shouldn't need it for at least 6 years, so here's to hoping the market has gone back up in that time. If/when the market starts to recover (loosely defined as dow 10k or so), we'll shift it more toward fixed income.

 

[audreyh1]

Remember the late 1970s? I'm waiting until a young crop of gurus advises buying investment-grade diamonds.

I was still in high school in the 1970s! I didn't even know what stock market was!

Audrey

 

[crispus]

It has been down so long, it seems like up to me.

I believe it was Jim Morrison of the Door's

 

[ls99]

I believe it was Jim Morrison of the Door's

Could be right. I think the original version was, I've been down so long, it seems like up to me.

Regarding the market, I'm stayin' the course. Eventually it will go up. or not.

 

[haha]

I believe it was Jim Morrison of the Door's

Like most white blues/rock, Morrison was derivative. That lyric is from Furry Lewis, a Memphis bluesman from the late 20s. The song, "I Will Turn Your Money Green".



I Will Turn Your Money Green

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I Will Turn Your Money Green – Furry Lewis
In Spanish tuning


When I was in Missouri, would not let me be
I was in Missouri, would not let me be
Wouldn’t rest content until I came to Tennessee

If you follow me baby, I’ll turn your money green
Follow me babe, I’ll turn your money green
I’ll show you more money Rockefeller ever seen

If the river was whiskey, babe and I was a duck
River was whiskey, babe and I was a duck
I’d dive to the bottom Lord and I'd never come up

Woman I hate, I see her every day
Woman I hate, I see her every day
But the woman I love, she’s so far away

Talk about sweethearted, I declare I’m an honest man
Talk about sweethearted, I declare I’m an honest man
Give my woman money so many dollars broke her apron string

All she give me was trouble, I'm troubled all the time
All she give me was trouble, I'm troubled all the time
I been troubled so long, trouble don’t worry my mind

I been down so long, seem like up to me
I been down so long, seem like up to me
Woman I love, she done quit poor me

What's the need in me hollerin', what's the need in me cryin'
What's the need in me hollerin', what's the need in me cryin'
Woman I love, she don't pay me no mind

http://www.weeniecampbell.com/wiki/index.php?title=I_Will_Turn_Your_Money_Green

 

[Purron]

You da man Ha. I never heard of Furry Lewis before.

 

[ziggy29]

You da man Ha. I never heard of Furry Lewis before.

Really? He's big in France and he does that telethon thing.

 

[haha]

Really? He's big in France and he does that telethon thing.

He must be getting pretty old then. 100 or so?

 

[Purron]

Really? He's big in France and he does that telethon thing.

How silly of me Zig - of course I've heard of Furry Lewis

 

[Nords]

I was still in high school in the 1970s! I didn't even know what stock market was!

Class of '78 here, but the very next year I was listening to a wise college senior pontificating about his diamonds & Krugerands. His older brother became an astronaut but he was on a less auspicious track. It'd be interesting to learn how his plans for world domination turned out.

I remember reading Business Week's original "Death of Equities" issue. It barely made an impression on me, let alone inspired me to save it. Of course I also felt the same way about BW's issue praising the wisdom & innovation of Enron...

 

[audreyh1]

Oh jeez - I was class of 77! But I totally missed out on all the financial hullaballoo.

 

[Danny]

Someone has to say it. I'll do it.

It has been down so long, it seems like up to me.

Can't remember the originator.

Been Down So Long It Looks Like Up to Me

That would also be the title of a novel by Richard Fariña

He was also a folk singer and covered Furry Lewis' song.

soon after publication became the dead husband of Mimi (man, i'm starting to feel old) the late sister of Joan Baez.

Jim could very well have sang something similar he was on the floor a lot from 1969 onwards ...

Mimi founded Bread and Roses and I had the pleasure of attending a few of the 70's & 80's concerts in support of it.

 

[2B]

Oh jeez - I was class of 77! But I totally missed out on all the financial hullaballoo.

I'm Class of 69. Before you experienced puberty, I was buying stocks in a custodial account. I bought <$10 stocks because I never had more than $1,000 at the same time. I had a few thousand in stocks but got crushed just about when I was graduating. I started college with $600 and a '60 Chevy station wagon that wasn't worth the $200 I paid for it.

I became a "real person" in college and kept on investing with the money I made from various opportunities. I graduated with about $6,000 in stocks in 1973 but lost about half of it in the '73/'74. I stayed invested and churned my stocks until I finally gave up and went to mutual funds.

I've always been an equities junky. I've always been too bullish.

I used to dream about having as much money as is gone from my portfolio. My equities have been cut by more than half and I was almost entirely in conservative index funds. That's why I'm thinking I'm a dumbsh*t for staying in the market. Today looks to be another bloodbath.

 

[Dawg52]

I used to dream about having as much money as is gone from my portfolio. My equities have been cut by more than half and I was almost entirely in conservative index funds. That's why I'm thinking I'm a dumbsh*t for staying in the market. Today looks to be another bloodbath.

Same here. I've come to the conclusion that the stock market has been the biggest scam going, and I swallowed it whole. Futures 110 down right now. Why oh why I didn't follow my parents lead and just go with cd's. Before my father died he asked me not to lose all his money in the stock market. At least I didn't do that for my mother. And when I do inherit that money, I will certainly follow by his wishes.

Damn I'm an idiot.

 

[2B]

On the plus side, if equities go to zero, it's no longer possible to lose as much in 2009 as I lost in 2008.

I'm accumulating interest/dividends in my IRA where I could consider investing some of it. It is over my minimum cash balance but I am balking at doing what the "plan" says I should do. That would be to buy 100 shs of VTI. I'm thinking about buying some high grade corporate bonds. It's not really enough for a decent bond order but I can wait a few more months. I'm buying S&P index funds automatically in my 401k and SERP but I just can't stomach actually placing a new buy order.

 

[ziggy29]

I'm buying S&P index funds automatically in my 401k and SERP but I just can't stomach actually placing a new buy order.

I know what you mean. Conventional wisdom tells me I need to rebalance but I can't deal with the thought of throwing more good money after bad. I feel like I'm bleeding to death from trying to catch too many falling knives.

 

[shotgunner]

Dawg our situations are so close and deep down I share your sentiment.

I do think it is interesting that many of the thoughts here are that of capitulation. I would take that as a sign the bottom is somewhere in sight. Of course I could be wrong.

 

[ziggy29]

I do think it is interesting that many of the thoughts here are that of capitulation. I would take that as a sign the bottom is somewhere in sight. Of course I could be wrong.

I don't think it's capitulation until the people who have these thoughts actually sell.